Transcriber’s Note:

The cover image was created by the transcriber and is placed in the public domain.

MAP SHOWING “THE REGIONS WHERE THE INTERESTS OF THE TWO POWERS MEET”

THE RUSSO-JAPANESE CONFLICT
ITS CAUSES AND ISSUES

BY

K. ASAKAWA, Ph. D.

Lecturer on the Civilization and History of East Asia at Dartmouth College; author of the “Early Institutional Life of Japan,” etc.

WITH AN INTRODUCTION BY

FREDERICK WELLS WILLIAMS

Assistant Professor of Modern Oriental History in Yale University

ILLUSTRATED

BOSTON AND NEW YORK

HOUGHTON, MIFFLIN AND COMPANY

The Riverside Press, Cambridge

1904

COPYRIGHT, 1904, BY HOUGHTON, MIFFLIN & CO.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Published November, 1904

INTRODUCTION

The issues of the conflict that forms the topic of this little volume are bound inevitably to influence the future of the civilized world for many years. Dr. Asakawa presents them with a logical thoroughness that reminds us of the military operations of his countrymen now in evidence elsewhere, and recalls very pleasantly to my own mind the sane and accurate character of his scholastic work while a student at Yale. It is the sort of presentation which a great subject needs. It is content with a simple statement of fact and inference. It is convincing because of its brevity and restraint.

The generous and almost passionate sympathy of our countrymen for Japan in this crisis of her career has aroused some speculation and surprise even amongst ourselves. The emotion is, doubtless, the outcome of complex causes, but this much is obvious at present: the past half-century has brought both America and Japan through experiences strikingly similar, and their establishment at the same moment as new world Powers has afforded both the same view of their older competitors for first rank among nations. Both have earned their centralized and effective governments after the throes of civil war; both have built navies and expanded their foreign commerce; both have arrested the belated and rather contemptuous attention of Europe by success in foreign wars. No state of Christendom can appreciate so well as America the vexation of enduring for generations the presumption or the patronage of those European courts who have themselves been free for less than a century from the bonds that Napoleon put upon the entire Continental group; and Japan has suffered under the same observance. With the acknowledgment of the existence of these two Powers of the first class on either shore of the Pacific, the bottom drops out of that system whereon was based the diplomacy of nineteenth-century Europe, and the jealousy with which they are both regarded establishes a certain rapprochement between the two newly arrived nations.

The attitude of the American people does not appear to me to be greatly influenced by prejudice against Russia. It is likely, indeed, that we had less to fear directly from the ambition of the Great Colossus than any other state. Yet we have been among the first to discern that Japan is doing the world’s work if, by reducing the pressure of Russia’s assault upon Eastern Asia, she removes China in the crisis of her awakening from the list of those derelict states whose present decrepitude offers such deplorable temptation to the military nations of the West. There would seem to be fresh need, moreover, of convincing modern statesmen that a policy of conducting diplomatic intercourse by means of tergiversation and lies is unprofitable in the long run, and therefore unjustified by the most cynical school of political ethics. Without debating the righteousness of her pretensions, it is obvious that Russia cannot proceed further in her headway without materially affecting the legitimate ambitions of other peoples of proved vitality, nor can her characteristic diplomacy secure success without debauching the political morality of Christendom. While apprehension of Russian aims need not involve dislike of the Russian people, we have an abiding idea in this country that both alike lie under a necessity of chastisement, and that Japan, as the only nation now really at home on the Pacific, is the hand to hold the rod.

In conclusion—if I may be allowed to extend these reflections a little further—the situation before us suggests the possibility that Asia may at this moment be passing the threshold of a renascence similar to that which awakened Europe at the opening of the sixteenth century from the lethargy of her dark ages. As the able editor of the North China Herald has observed, native Asia from Korea to Siam is to-day no more deeply immersed in the mire of poverty, ignorance, and superstition than was Europe in the Middle Ages, nor was the task of relief and enlightenment less hopeless to human agencies then than now. Yet with the Age of Discoveries came not only new worlds and new paths of commerce, but the end of the tyrannies of scholasticism, the church, and the despot. Within a century were laid all the foundations of these political and intellectual institutions that distinguish Europe and her children to-day. A like reconstruction may be effected in Asia during the century just begun. The parallel is not altogether inadmissible, and it may be pushed even further. For as the newly awakened Europe of the sixteenth century developed one monster Power whose aggrandizement threatened the liberties of all the rest, so has the present era brought forth a monster fearful in the same fashion to Asia. It was England, a naval folk and a new Power, that struck at Spain three centuries ago, and by that brave adventure not only won wealth and prestige for herself, but rid Europe of a great menace. It is Japan, also a naval race and a new—so far as Continental history is concerned—that strikes at Russia and hopes by her success both to avert the undoing of the ancient states about her and to establish herself as mistress in her own waters. Confident in their understanding of their great mission, we of America may rightfully bid the dazed Asiatic seek his salvation from the children of the Rising Sun, and declare in the Sibylline utterance of the Psalmist, “The dew of thy birth is of the womb of the morning.”

Frederick Wells Williams.

New Haven, Connecticut,

November, 1904.

PREFACE

This is an attempt to present in a verifiable form some of the issues and the historical causes of the war now waged between Russia and Japan. Powerfully as it appeals to me, I would not have discussed a subject so strange to the proper sphere of my investigation, had it not been for the fact that no one else has, so far as I am aware, undertaken the task in the same spirit in which I have endeavored to write these pages. Although I deeply regret that I do not read the Russian language and cannot do full justice to the Russian side of the question, the impartial reader will observe, I trust, that this work is neither a plea for the one side nor a condemnation of the other, but a mere exposition of the subject-matter as I comprehend it. When the author offers what he considers a natural explanation of a question, the reader should not read into it a moral judgment. Indeed, I earnestly wish that the kind reader would thrash out of these pages every grain of real prejudice. Nor can I welcome a greater favor from any person than a more complete and just statement of Russia’s case than I have been able to make. After having said so much, it is unnecessary to tell the reader how, when the substance of the introductory chapter to this volume was published last May in the Yale Review, some of its critics ascribed to the writer motives utterly foreign to himself. One of those alleged motives was that I had sought to prove that the American trading interest in Manchuria and Korea would be better served by a final victory of Japan than by that of Russia. I neither proved nor disproved such a theme, but I did state that Japan’s interest demanded the maintenance in those regions of the principle of the impartial opportunity for all nations. Whether the result of this policy would prove better or worse for the interest of any one nation than the effect of an exclusive policy, did not concern me. It did not and does not belong to me to appeal to the commercial instinct of the reader, or even to his sympathy with, or antipathy to, either of the present belligerents. My only plea is that for truth.

The substance of the introductory chapter, as has been said, and also a brief summary of the body of the volume have been published in the Yale Review for May and August of the present year. I am greatly indebted to the editors of the Review for allowing me to use the material in the preparation of this work. I also wish to express my sincere thanks to my friends who have encouraged me in the publication of this volume.

Asakawa.

Hanover, New Hampshire,

August 30, 1904.

CONTENTS

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

THE RUSSO-JAPANESE CONFLICT

INTRODUCTORY

SOME OF THE ISSUES OF THE CONFLICT

The deeper significance of the present dramatic struggle between Russia and Japan over territories belonging to neither of the contestants cannot perhaps be understood, until we examine some of the issues at stake between them. The more fundamental of these issues, however, as in many another international crisis, seem to be oftener understood than expressed, and hence understood only vaguely, although it may fairly be said that they constitute the very forces which have with irresistible certainty brought the belligerents into collision. For Japan, the issues appear to be only partly political, but mainly economical; and perhaps no better clue to the understanding, not only of the present situation, but also, in general, of the activities at home and abroad of the Japanese people, could be found than in the study of these profound material interests.

Among the most remarkable tendencies of Japan’s economic life of recent years has been the enormous increase of her population, along with an immense growth of her trade and industries. The number of her inhabitants increased from 27,200,000, as estimated in 1828, to only 34,000,000 in 1875, but since that year it has risen so fast that it is to-day 46,305,000[^[1]]—exclusive of the 3,082,404[^[1]] in Formosa and the Pescadores—and is increasing now at the annual rate of nearly 600,000. At the same time, the foreign trade of Japan has grown from 49,742,831 yen in 1873 to 606,637,959 yen in 1903. Up to the end of May, 1904, the total amount showed 274,012,437 yen, as compared with the 248,506,103 yen of the same period of 1903.[^[2]] The significance of these figures must be seen in the light of the important fact that the bulk of the increase in population and trade has been due to the decisive change of the economic life of the nation from an agricultural to an industrial stage. The new population seems to increase far more rapidly in the urban than in the rural districts, for if we consider as urban the inhabitants of communities containing each more than three thousand people, the ratio of the urban population to the rural may be estimated as 1 to 3. If only towns of more than 10,000 inhabitants each are included in the urban class, it is seen that their population increases annually 5 or 6 per cent., while the corresponding rate with the rural communities never rises above 3 per cent. and is usually much lower.[^[3]] This comparatively rapid growth of the cities also indicates that the new population must be mainly supported by commerce and manufacture.

In 1903, 84.6 per cent. of the total export trade of Japan consisted of either wholly or partly manufactured articles.[^[4]] On the other hand, agriculture has progressed only slowly,[^[5]] and is no longer able either to support the increased population or to produce enough raw articles for the manufactures. The average annual crop of rice may be put at 210 million bushels, and that of barley, rye, and wheat, collectively called mugi, at 94.3 million bushels, while the average annual consumption of these cereals may safely be estimated, respectively, at 228.3 and 106.7 million bushels. In years of poor crops, the importation of rice, wheat, and flour amounts to large figures; as, for instance, in 1903, they together were imported to the value of about 67 million yen.[^[6]] Raw material and food-stuffs, consisting of cotton, wool, rice, flour and starch, beans and oil-cakes, the importation of all of which was next to nothing twenty years ago, were in 1903 supplied from abroad to the value of 169,600,000 yen, or 53.5 per cent. of the total imports of Japan.[^[7]] Japan will not only always have to rely upon foreign countries for the supply of these articles, but also have to import them in ever increasing quantities. Nor does agriculture occupy in the national finances the position it once did, for in 1875 the land tax, the incidence of which fell, as it still falls, very largely on the farmer, supplied 78 per cent. of the total revenue of the state, while the percentage fell, in the estimated budget for the fiscal year 1902–3, to 16, the actual amount also decreasing during the interval from 67.7 to 37 million yen, and the expenditures of the government, on the other hand, increasing from 73.4 million in 1874, to the enormous figure of 223.18 million yen in 1904–5.[^[8]]

No one can say a cheerful word about agriculture in Japan or the life of her farmer. Exclusive of Formosa, the development of which seems to lie in the direction of industry and trade rather than agriculture, less than 13,000,000 acres are under cultivation,[^[9]] or, about 13 per cent. of the extent of the country, while the arable area of the land cannot possibly be increased by more than 10,500,000 acres,[^[10]] so that the per capita share of arable land is less than one half of an acre,[^[11]] which is even below the corresponding rate in England and less than one half of that in China. Japan’s agricultural life can, however, be no more intensively improved than extensively enlarged. The sedimentary soil so well adapted to the rice cultivation and so abundantly blessed with moisture[^[12]] is too minutely and carefully tilled, the climate conditions are too cleverly made use of,[^[13]] and, above all, the lots of land are too diminutive,[^[14]] to make the importation of new machinery and methods always profitable or desirable.[^[15]] The day-laborers on the farm receive wages ranging between nine and fifteen cents, though the latter have risen more than 100 per cent. during the last fifteen years.[^[16]] With this meagre income, some of the laborers have to support their aged parents, wives, and children. The tenants, whose number bears the ratio of about two to one[^[17]] to that of the proprietors, live literally from hand to mouth, and cannot always afford even the necessary manure, and the proprietor’s profit hardly rises above 5 per cent., while the capital he employs pays an interest of 15 to 30 per cent.[^[18]] and his local and central taxes further reduce his income. The farmer would in many cases be unable to subsist, were it not possible for him, as it fortunately is, to try his hand at silk-culture or some other subsidiary occupation.

Japan’s agriculture, then, can neither be much extended nor be greatly improved, can neither satisfy the old population nor support the new, and, above all, can only produce smaller and smaller portion of the necessary raw material for her growing industries. Under these circumstances, it is becoming more evident every year that the time is forever past when the nation could rely solely upon agriculture for subsistence. It is hardly necessary to repeat the well-known law of population—which is at the root of our subject—that every advance in the economic life of a nation creates a situation which is capable of supporting a larger population than in the preceding stage. What agriculture cannot support, industry and trade may. Japan’s growing population may only be supported, as it has already begun to be, by an increased importation of raw material and food-stuffs and an increased exportation of manufactures. Trade statistics unmistakably show that such markets for her manufactures and such supply regions of her raw and food articles are found primarily in East Asia, with which the commercial relations of Japan have grown 543 per cent. since 1890, as compared with the 161 per cent.[^[19]] increase of the American and the 190 per cent. increase of the European trade,[^[20]] until the East Asiatic trade amounted in 1903 to 295,940,000 yen in value, or 48.7 per cent. of the entire foreign trade of Japan.[^[21]] The following table gives a comparison of the importation in the years 1882, 1902, and 1903, of what may be considered as primarily East Asiatic products:[^[22]]—

From these eloquent facts, the conclusion would seem tenable that, should the markets of East Asia be closed, Japan’s national life would be paralyzed, as her growing population would be largely deprived of its food and occupation. These markets, then, must be left as open as the circumstances permit, if Japan would exist as a growing nation. Observe here the tremendous significance for Japan of the principle of the “open door” as applied to East Asia—the principle, in a more accurate language, of the equal opportunity in East Asia for the economic enterprise of all foreign nations.[^[23]]

In this great problem Manchuria and Korea occupy, perhaps, the most important position, for they together receive a large portion of the cotton yarn and cotton textiles exported from Japan, besides several other manufactured goods and coal, and in return supply Japan with much of the wheat and rice, and practically all of the millet, beans, and oil-cakes, imported into the country. Let us briefly demonstrate these statements by figures. First, consider the exportation of cotton yarns and textiles from Japan to Manchuria and Korea. It is rather difficult from the material on hand to estimate the exact ratio which the import of these articles from Japan into Korea and Manchuria bears to the total import of the same articles from all nations. In the case of Korea, we can make an approximate estimate, as we possess both the export values in Japan and import values in Korea, but with regard to Manchuria, we know only the quantities, but not the values, of the cotton goods imported. By assuming, however, that 40 per cent. of these goods imported by the Chinese Empire from Japan go to North China (of which Manchuria is here considered by far the most important part), it may be said, roughly, that in 1903 about 6 per cent. of the cotton yarn exported from Japan went to Korea and perhaps 40 per cent. to North China. The average import of this article during the past two years was probably 1,200,000 yen in Korea and 8,000,000 yen in North China, making the total about 36 per cent. of the export value in Japan. On the same basis of calculation, the average importation of cotton textiles from Japan during the past three years was 3,190,000 yen in Korea and 765,000 yen in North China, or about 69.5 per cent. of the entire export of these articles from Japan. These figures are only tentative, but may serve to show that Manchuria receives comparatively much yarn and Korea much textiles, and that they together receive at least a large percentage of those articles exported by Japan, where their manufacture occupies an increasingly important place in her economic life.[^[24]] As to the exportation of agricultural products from Manchuria and Korea, it is seen that wheat is only beginning to be cultivated in Manchuria, while the rice cultivation is there practically unknown except in a few places near the Korean border, where during the campaign of 1894–5 the Japanese troops introduced it. The position which Korea occupies in the importation of wheat into Japan will be seen from the following table:—

A glance at these figures will show that the import trade of wheat, like that of rice, is dependent on many fluctuating conditions at home and abroad. The poor crop in Japan caused an enormous importation of wheat in 1903 to the value of 4,767,000 yen. From the above table, it is seen that Korea supplied during the five years, respectively, 57.5, 80.7, 23.1, 19.1, and 98.8 per cent., in weight, of the wheat imported into Japan. As regards rice, the following table will show that in the five years between 1898 and 1902 Korea supplied, respectively, 5.5, 26.5, 49.4, 46.8, and 19.8 per cent. in weight of the cereal imported into Japan:—

As will be seen in this table, much rice comes also from Saigon and Bangkok, to which, however, Japan hardly exports anything. In Korea, on the contrary, the greater her exportation of rice, the larger her purchasing power of the goods from the country to which the rice goes. In the case of beans and oil-cakes, Manchuria and Korea occupy in the list of the importation of these articles into Japan an even more important place than is the case with wheat or rice, as will be seen in the following table:—

An explanation is necessary that, to all probability, much of the oil-cakes from Russian Asia was reëxported from Manchuria. In 1903, beans and oil-cakes were imported to the value of, respectively, 7,993,000 and 10,739,000 yen. In considering all these facts as a whole, attention is called to a point of immense importance, that Manchuria and Korea supply Japan with necessaries of life, and receive in return, in the main, useful goods, instead of wares of luxury. We shall have occasion further to develop this point.

Let us now take a general survey of the position Japan holds in the trade relations of Korea and Manchuria. In Korea, whence the Chinese merchants withdrew during the China-Japan war of 1894–5 and were replaced by the Japanese traders,[^[28]] it is Japan alone of all trading nations which enjoys a large share both in the import and export trade, as is suggested in the following table:—

while the grains exported from Korea go almost entirely to Japan, different ports of Korea present of course different characteristics in their trade with Japan: as, for instance, at Chemulpo the Chinese merchants still enjoy a considerable share in the import trade; at Seul nearly all the export consists of gold bullion, which is almost exclusively bought by the branch of the First Bank of Japan; while at Fusan and Mokpo the Japanese monopoly of trade is almost complete. With these variations, however, the Japanese merchants control the major part of the trade of each port, and consequently of the entire trade of Korea. They also carry a large amount of foreign goods to Korea, as seen in the following table:—

The shipping also is largely in the hands of the Japanese. In 1903, their share in the Korean shipping was as follows:[^[30]]—

Turning to Manchuria, it is found that Japan controlled in 1902 more than 44 per cent. of the shipping tonnage,[^[31]] besides 40 per cent. of the direct import trade and over 90 per cent. of the export trade, as is shown below:[^[32]]—

at Niu-chwang, which was then the only important port in Manchuria open to foreign trade under the ordinary customs rules.[^[33]]

In this connection, it should be remembered that both the Korean and Manchurian trade are of recent origin. Niu-chwang was opened as a treaty port in 1858, but its commercial importance may be said to date from 1899. Korea’s foreign trade did not begin till 1884, and it exceeded 10,000,000 yen for the first time in 1895. The rapid growth of the trade of these places has been largely due to the increasing trade activity of Japan. In the case of Niu-chwang, it is true the development of its import trade has been as much owing to the energy of the Americans as to that of the Japanese, but its export business would be meagre, and would consequently reduce the imports also, but for Japanese activity. The recent increase in the production of millet in Manchuria, for instance, may be said to be entirely due to Japanese trade at Niu-chwang. Of the three staple products of Western Manchuria, tall millet is consumed by the natives, and beans are partly consumed and partly exported, while millet is cultivated purely for the purpose of exportation. It began to be exported to Korea in August, 1901, and to Japan in 1902. Since the latter year, Japan’s demand for millet has steadily increased, and has caused a considerable rise in its price at Niu-chwang. The cultivation of millet, therefore, is a pure gain that has been created by the trade relations of Manchuria with Japan.[^[34]] Far more important than millet as articles for exportation are beans and bean-cakes. The entire trade conditions at Niu-chwang may be said to depend upon the amount of the sale of these articles. The more they are sold, the greater is the importing capacity of the people of Manchuria. The nation which buys beans and bean-cakes in the largest quantities naturally commands the greatest facility in pushing their imports into Niu-chwang. The exportation of these goods doubled during the ten years between 1889 and 1898, while the amount of the bean production in Manchuria for 1900 was estimated at between 1,930,000 and 2,450,000 koku. Both the production and the exportation must now be much greater. The increase was due in the main to the growing demand in Japan for beans and bean-cakes, as witness the following ratios of exports to China and Japan from Niu-chwang:—

In 1903, the ratios must have been much greater for Japan than for China. The increasing demand for these products has induced many Chinese to migrate from Shan-tung to Southern and Western Manchuria and cultivate beans.[^[35]] As regards the Korean trade, the following table will speak for itself:—

If we examine the causes of the growth of individual open ports in Korea, nothing can be plainer than that it has almost entirely resulted from the increasing trade relations between Korea and Japan. It is needless to mention Fusan, for its trade is nearly synonymous with its Japanese trade. Kunsan was opened on May 1, 1899, and its population was only 300 till two years ago, but the great demand by Japan for the rice coming through this port has already tended to enlarge the number of its inhabitants up to 2000 or more.[^[36]] Similar remarks may be made of Mokpo, Chinnampo, and other ports.[^[37]] Most conspicuous, however, is the case of Chemulpo. In 1883, when it was opened as a treaty port, it contained only a few fishers’ houses, but now it holds a population of 15,000, and occupies a position in Korea similar to that of Shanghai in China. Of the inhabitants of the ports, 8000, or more than a half, are Japanese. Streams of Koreans also have flowed hither from inland towns, for there the officials oppress people, while here they are so constantly viewed by the foreigners that undue exactions are impossible.[^[38]] We have already noted the important fact that Korea and Manchuria on the one hand and Japan on the other exchange, not wares of luxury, but useful and necessary articles. We have now come to another equally important fact, that the growth of the Manchurian and Korean trade depends largely upon the commercial activity of Japan. From these considerations, it would seem safe to say that the trade interests of the three countries are largely common, for the more Korea and Manchuria export to Japan, the greater will be their purchasing power of Japanese goods, and, also, the larger the exportation from Japan to Manchuria and Korea, the more readily they will dispose of their products to her. On the one hand, Korea and Manchuria encourage the growth of Japan’s manufacture, and supply her with food and manure; on the other hand, the economic development and prosperity of Korea and Manchuria must be largely determined by the increasing demand for their products by Japan, and the easy supply of their wants from Japan. The future growth of the three nations, then, must in a large measure depend upon the intimate progress, of their trade interests, which, therefore, not only are common, but should be increasingly common. If the history of the past suggests the probable development in the future, there is every reason to believe that, with reformed systems of currency and improved and extended cultivation of land and means of transportation, the trade of Manchuria and Korea will show a tremendous increase, and then the community of interest between them and Japan will be most profound.

This theme of the community of interest may further be elaborated. Korea and Manchuria may with profit remain open, not only for the trade, but also for the emigration and industrial enterprise, of the Japanese people. Since 1902 no passports have been required for travelers from Japan to Korea, whither, in spite of the occasional obstacles placed in their way by Korean officials, the emigrants have proceeded, now for years, in increasing numbers, until there resided in 1903 nearly thirty thousand Japanese in the Peninsula.[^[39]] It takes only thirteen hours on sea from Bakan in Japan to Fusan in Korea, and the cost is even less than that of sailing to the Japanese colony of Formosa, the former being fifteen yen and the latter twenty. It seems easier to go from Bakan to Fusan than it is from Osaka to the Hokkaidō within Japan proper.[^[40]] The expense of living in Korea is also as low as one third the corresponding figure in Japan, a monthly income of ten or thirteen yen being considered sufficient to support a family of three persons in a rented house.[^[41]] It is not strange, under these conditions, that the Japanese migrate to Korea, not always singly, like the Chinese, but often in families,[^[42]] so that their settlements assume there a normal and permanent character unseen even in Japan’s own island of Formosa. Nor are all these colonists mere laborers like their brethren in Manchuria and the Hawaiian Islands, but many are independent men of business. They also naturally manifest a stronger sense of kinship and coöperation in Korea than the merchants and capitalists do in Japan. In several Korean towns these Japanese settlers have established their own municipalities, with modern improvements, chambers of commerce, police, and public schools, all of which compare favorably with those of the larger cities in Japan, and the advantages of which are enjoyed by native Koreans and resident Chinese. It is said that in some places the influx of the Japanese and their investments have caused a rise in the price of land and house rent.[^[43]] In Fusan, the port nearest to Japan, the 10,000 Japanese who live there own large tracts of land and occupy the main sections of the city. Here and everywhere else the Japanese colonists seem to hold a position similar to that of the foreigners living in the so-called settlements in the larger treaty ports of China. Tourists are wont to contrast the clean and well-ordered streets and the general energetic appearance of the Japanese quarters in Korean cities with the comparatively filthy and slothful Korean quarters. The branches of the First Bank of Japan have been issuing recently one-, five-, and ten-yen bank-notes,[^[44]] which have been of immense value to the foreign trade in Korea, the native currency of which is in a deplorable condition.[^[45]] The coasting and river navigation, so far as it concerns foreign trade, is largely controlled by the Japanese, who, besides, own the only railway line in operation in Korea, twenty-six miles long, running between the capital, Seul, and its port Chemulpo.[^[46]] They are also building,[^[47]] under the management of substantially the same company, another and longer line—two hundred and eighty-seven miles—between Seul and the port of Fusan, which passes through the richer and economically by far the more important half of the Peninsula.[^[48]] It is not impossible to suppose that the Japanese people will succeed in their efforts to secure the right of extending this line beyond Seul up to Wiju on the northern border,[^[49]] and thence ultimately connecting it with the Eastern Chinese and the Peking-Shanghaikwan-Sinminting Railways, so as to render the connection by rail between Fusan and China and Europe complete.[^[50]] The Mitsui Produce Company, another Japanese concern, monopolized the export of Korean ginseng, and, in 1903, despite the competition of the Russian Baron Gunzburg,[^[51]] succeeded in extending the term of the monopoly for five years. Twenty to forty thousand Japanese fishermen along the Korean coast report an annual catch amounting sometimes to large figures.

No part of Korea’s economic life, however, would seem to be of greater importance to her own future, or to depend more closely upon the enterprise of the Japanese settlers, than her agriculture. If it is remembered that nearly all her exports consist of agricultural products, and also that they largely supply the needs of Japan, we can readily comprehend the great community of interest felt by both countries in the agriculture of the Peninsula. It is remarkable to note, to take a single instance, that the production of cereals and beans (respectively about eight and four million koku) in Korea has grown to its present dimensions largely owing to the stimulus given to it by the increased demand for these articles in Japan.[^[52]] We shall presently note also that, owing to the peculiar circumstances prevailing in Korea, her purchasing power and general commercial activity are so completely ruled by the conditions of her weather and crops as is seldom the case with other agricultural nations. The Koreans are comparatively happy in good years, while in bad years they are reduced to great miseries and bandits infest all parts of the country. Upon the state of her agriculture, then, must depend the trade conditions of Korea, as well as most of her material strength and much of that of Japan. From this it is plain that the profound community of interest of the two nations calls for both the extension and the improvement of the agriculture of Korea. It is estimated that the extent of her land under cultivation is hardly more than 3,185,000 acres, or about 6.3 per cent. of the 82,000 square miles known as the total area of the country,[^[53]] and that there exist at least 3,500,000 more acres of arable land, which would be fully capable of sustaining five or six millions of new population, and of increasing the annual crops of the land by not less than 150,000,000 yen.[^[54]] Unfortunately, however, the Koreans lack energy to cultivate those three and a half million acres of waste land. For it is well known that the irregular but exhaustive exactions of the Korean officials have bred a conviction in the mind of the peasant that it is unwise to bestir himself and earn surplus wealth only to be fleeced by the officials. His idleness has now for centuries been forced, until it has become an agreeable habit. It is in this state of things that is has often been suggested that the cultivation of the waste lands may most naturally be begun by the superior energy of the Japanese settlers.[^[55]] Not less important than the cultivation of new land is the improvement of old land in Korea, where the art of husbandry is far less advanced than in either China or Japan. Lots are marked out carelessly, improvements are crude, and the manure most universally used is dried grass. The great rivers with all their numerous ramifications are hardly utilized for the purpose of irrigation, and the forests have been mercilessly denuded for fuel and in order to forestall the requisition of the government,—which formerly used to order without compensation the cutting and transporting of trees by their owners,—so that a slight drought or excess of rain works frightful disasters upon agriculture. Another serious effect of the absence of a good system of irrigation is the comparative want of rice land, which always requires a most careful use of water.[^[56]] These conditions are all the more to be regretted, when it is seen that the soil is generally fair and the climate favorable. The cultivation of rice is said to have been first taught by the Japanese invaders toward the end of the sixteenth century, and yet, with all their primitive method, the Koreans are already exporting rice to the value of four million yen or more. Sericulture is still in its infancy, while tea, cotton, hemp, sugar, and various fruits are all declared to be tolerably well suited to the soil. The Japanese farmer finds here, particularly in the south, a climate and general surroundings very similar to his own, and otherwise eminently agreeable to his habits, and, along with the application of his superior methods of cultivation, irrigation, and forestry, the common interests of his country and Korea are bound to develop with great rapidity. The progress of agriculture would also gradually lead the Koreans into the beginnings of an industrial life, while the expanding systems of railways and banking would be at once cause and effect of the industrial growth of the nation. Another inevitable result would be the development of the economic sense and the saving capacity of the Korean, the latter of which has had little opportunity to grow, not so much because of his small wage and high rent and interest, as because of the onerous, irregular local dues and the systematic exactions in various forms by the official.[^[57]] An advanced economic life, itself necessitating a reform of the official organization, would at least make it possible for the peasant to work, earn, and save. Simultaneously and in increasing degree would his wants, as well as his purchasing power, increase. Around the progress of Korea’s agriculture, then, must be built all other measures of her growth and power, as, for instance, transportation, industries, trade and commerce, finance, political reform, and military strength. In no other way can we conceive of the possibility of her effective independence, the cause of which has cost Japan, and is now costing her, so dearly. In no other light can we interpret the Korean sovereignty under the assistance of Japan.

In regard to Manchuria, where the chances for development are far vaster, the Japanese people do not possess there as large vested interests, but entertain as great expectations for its future settlement and industry as in Korea. It was estimated before the present war that there resided more than ten thousand Japanese in Manchuria, who were either under the employment of Russian authorities in public works along the railway, or engaged in such small occupations as laundry work, carpentry, restaurant-keeping, photographing, and hair-dressing,[^[58]] while many of the Japanese women, whose numbers in many a town preponderated over those of men, had been allured by unscrupulous parties, who consigned them to disreputable occupations. Merchants and business men of greater capital and resources would be, as they often have been, attracted to Manchuria, were it not for the exclusive, and in the hands of some of their officials, arbitrary, measures of the Russians.[^[59]] Under normal conditions of peace and “open door,” the immensely greater resources of Manchuria and the much greater productiveness of its people[^[60]] would seem to promise even a more important economic future than in Korea.

In summing up our preceding discussion, it may be stated that the natural growth or unnatural decay of the Japanese nation will greatly depend—ever more greatly than it now does—upon whether Manchuria and Korea remain open or are closed to its trade, colonization, and economic enterprise; and that, in her imperative desire for the open door, Japan’s wish largely coincides with that of the European and American countries, except Russia, whose over-production calls for an open market in the East.

Thus far we have discussed only Japan’s side of the economic problem in Manchuria and Korea. Passing to Russia’s side, it is seen that her vested interests in Manchuria are as enormous as her commercial success there has been small. The building of the Eastern Chinese Railway has cost the incredible sum of 270,000,000 rubles, making the average cost per verst more than 113,000 rubles,[^[61]] or over $87,000 per mile, besides 70,000,000 rubles lost and expended during the Boxer outrages and Manchuria campaign of 1900,[^[62]] to say nothing of the normal annual cost of guarding the railway by soldiers, estimated at 24,000,000 rubles.[^[63]] The investments in permanent properties alone, besides the railway, are moderately valued at 500,000,000 rubles.[^[64]] In return for these heavy outlays, the trade relations between Russia and Manchuria have been most disappointing. Though it is not possible to obtain the exact figures of the actual trade between Manchuria and European Russia, we can establish approximate estimates in the following manner. According to official returns, exports from Russia to her Far Eastern Possessions were as follows:—

The decline must be largely due to the decreased demand for military and railway supplies, for it is seen that the falling-off has been most conspicuous in iron and steel wares and machinery.[^[65]] At the same time there was little or no import trade from the Russian possessions in the East into Russia, for the native products sent out from the former never passed beyond Eastern Siberia. It would be interesting if we could find out how much of these Russian exports went to Manchuria. The figures for the Pacific ports are given as follows:[^[66]]—

If these figures are reliable, the difference between them and those given above, namely:—

might be considered an approximate amount of the export trade from Russia to Manchuria (and Mongolia, which imports very little from Russia), for, of the Pacific ports, no other port but Vladivostok reëxports Russian goods into Manchuria, which reëxportation seems to be slight enough to be ignored. The approximate correctness of the figures is further seen from the fact that of the total 8,193,000 rubles of the Manchurian trade at Blagovestchensk, Habarofsk, and the South Ussuri region—the three main points of transit trade with Manchuria—only one half showed exports to Manchuria, and again, of this one half, only a portion consisted of reëxported Russian goods. The South Ussuri district, for instance, sent only 130,800 and 206,000 rubles’ worth of Russian and foreign goods to Manchuria, out of the total export trade of 799,500 and 2,221,300 rubles, respectively, in 1898 and 1899.[^[67]] On the other hand, before the opening of the Manchurian Railway (which took place in February, 1903), the direct trade between Russia and the interior of Manchuria must have been so slight as not to materially affect the sum-total of the Russian-Manchurian trade.

This remarkably unfavorable trade between Manchuria and Russia was probably due to a decreased demand for military supplies since 1900 (for Russia has little to export from Manchuria, and Chinese teas have largely gone through Kiakhta or by the Amur, rather than by the Manchurian Railway), and also to the difficulty of further reducing the freight rates on the railway,[^[68]] and of competing successfully with the American and Japanese traders in certain articles for importation.[^[69]] In spite of all the effort made by the late Finance Minister, M. Witte, Russia is not yet primarily a manufacturing country, her exportation of manufactured goods forming in fact only 2.5 per cent. of her entire export trade, and at best remaining stationary during the three years 1900–2, as will be seen below:—

Russia’s commercial failure in Manchuria in the past would, however, in no way justify the inference that the future will be as disappointing. All competent observers seem to agree that the undeveloped resources of the 364,000 square miles of Manchuria are enormous.[^[71]] Its unknown mineral wealth, its thousands of square miles of land now under the bean and millet cultivation, but beginning to yield to the wheat culture and producing wheat at a market price of not more than forty cents per bushel, and its extensive lumber districts, as well as its millions of cheap and most reliable Chinese laborers,[^[72]] would before long enable the Russians successfully to convert Manchuria into one of the richest parts of China and one of the richest countries in the world. A success of such magnitude must, however, largely depend upon a systematically protective and exclusive policy on the part of Russia, or, in other words, upon the completeness with which Russia transfers the bulk of the Manchurian trade from the treaty port of Niu-chwang, and, so far as the Russian import from China is concerned, even from the once important Russian port of Vladivostok, to the commercial terminus of the Manchurian Railway—Dalny. Particularly in order to capture the import trade into Manchuria of cotton goods and kerosene oil, in the face of the great advantages enjoyed by American and Japanese competitors, Russia must at all costs make Dalny overshadow Niu-chwang, so as to bring the trade under her complete control. Nothing but a highly artificial system could accomplish such wonders, for, under normal conditions, teas for Russia would go by the less costly routes through Kiakhta, or up the Amur, or by sea to Odessa; the native products of Manchuria for exportation to Japan would be sent to Niu-chwang by the nearest, cheapest, and most natural channel, the Liao River, and, when the latter freezes between the end of November and March, by the Shan-hai-kwan Railway; and, finally, the smaller cost of production and lower rates of freight of the American and Japanese cotton fabrics would completely outdistance the Russian. Let us observe with what artificial measures the Russians have been meeting this situation. With a view to diverting the tea trade from Vladivostok to Dalny, Russia imposed an import duty of 3 rubles per pood from August, 1902, and increased it in May, 1903, to 25.50 rubles,[^[73]] which with other measures dealt a crushing blow to the prosperity of Vladivostok.[^[74]] This must at least have stifled the transportation of tea up the Amur, without, perhaps, affecting the inroad of teas through the old Kiakhta and by sea.[^[75]] As regards the export trade at Niu-chwang, the Russians took advantage of the important fact that the Shan-hai-kwan Railway did not penetrate sufficiently north to reach some producing centres of Western Manchuria, while the waters of the Liao were navigable only 200 miles from the mouth, and were, together with the harbor itself, ice-bound from November till March. Dalny was nearly ice-free, and the Manchurian Railway was available through all seasons. The only competitors of the railroad would seem to be the small bean-carrying junks plying down the Liao, which were both owned and loaded by the same Chinese merchants. This competition the Russians met by greatly reduced freight rates of the railway, which made it possible for every 100 poods of Manchurian grain and beans to be carried 600 miles between Harbin and Dalny for about fifty-seven cents gold, or $10 per ton.[^[76]] From Dalny, heavily subsidized Russian boats transported Manchurian exports to Japan at a freight rate which, in conjunction with railway rates, amounted to the saving by the shipper of 4.50 yen per ton, as compared with the railway-rates plus the freight-rates of non-Russian vessels.[^[77]] When the flour industry of the Russian towns in Manchuria is developed, Russian steamers may be seen carrying flour from Dalny, not only to Japan, but to Chinese and Eastern Siberian ports. As for the import trade of Manchuria, the Russians, who have ousted American importers of kerosene oil at Vladivostok, seem to be now by energetic methods slowly driving away the same rivals from Chemulpo and from Dalny.[^[78]] Vastly more important as articles for importation than kerosene oil are cotton yarn and textiles, which are annually supplied from abroad to the value of over 12,000,000 taels. By far the greater part of sheetings, drills, and jeans comes from America. The Russians were not unable to produce cotton fabrics almost as good as the American goods, but the trans-Siberian freight was twice as expensive as the Pacific transportation, and could not be expected to be further reduced without great difficulty.[^[79]] It was not impossible to suppose that the Russian Government might ultimately apply to Manchuria the system of granting a premium and an additional drawback on textiles made from imported cotton, which had been in successful operation in Persia. There was no question but that, together with the development of Manchuria under Russian control, foreigners would lose most of their import trade in lumber, butter, and flour, and here again the Russian success must depend on the exclusiveness of their policy.[^[80]] Mr. H. B. Miller, the United States Consul at Niu-chwang, seems to have made a delicate reference to this point when he said, in his report dated December 5, 1903: “The United States trade in Manchuria with the Chinese amounted to several millions of dollars per year, and was almost entirely imports. It had grown very fast, and would have had an extended and most substantial increase without the Russian development, for the country was being improved and extensively developed with a continual immigration from other provinces in China, before the railway construction began.”[^[81]] Much has been said regarding the oft-reiterated wish of Russia to keep Dalny as a free port, but it is well known that it has recently been placed under a protective tariff.[^[82]] We are not in possession of the details of this tariff, but its general significance can hardly be mistaken when we see how the Russians have been reducing freight rates to the utmost, subsidizing their own steamers, and pooling together their great banking and railway facilities, all for the purpose, on the one hand, of developing Russian industries in Manchuria, and on the other, of monopolizing the bulk of its trade.

Not only in trade, but in colonization also, the Russians have been building up new cities and developing old ones under their exclusive policy with an unheard-of rapidity. Dalny is a good example of the former class. Still more conspicuous is the city of Harbin, the so-called Moscow of Asia, the geographical and commercial centre and headquarters of the railway work in Manchuria, which is said to have consisted of a single Chinese house in 1898,[^[83]] but now contains 50,000 people.[^[84]] Well might Count Cassini, as he did, refer, not only to the colonization, but to the general civilizing influence of the Russians in Manchuria in the following language:[^[85]] “Through the pacific channels of diplomacy my government acquired privileges which, accepted in good faith, have been exercised in a spirit of true modern progressiveness, until now the flower of enlightened civilization blooms throughout a land that a few years ago was a wild, and in many parts a desolate, seemingly unproductive waste. Before the signing of the treaty which I had the honor to negotiate in behalf of my Sovereign, giving to Russia railroad and other concessions in Manchuria, no white man could have ventured into that province without danger to his life.... Upon the basis of the rights to commercial exploitation thus peaceably obtained, Russia built a railway into and through Manchuria. She built bridges, roads, and canals. She has built cities whose rapid construction and wonderful strides in population and industry have no parallel, certainly in Europe and Asia, perhaps even in America. Harbin and Dalny are monuments to Russian progressiveness and civilization. These great undertakings, wonderful even in a day of marvelous human accomplishment, have cost Russia more than 300,000,000 dollars.” Without stopping either to dispute the historical accuracy of Count Cassini’s statement or to deny the wonderful work the Russians have accomplished in Manchurian cities, it seems pertinent to call our attention to the exclusive side of the Russian enterprise in this vast territory. Harbin is one of the so-called “depots,” over eighty in number, which are found along the whole length of the Manchurian Railway, each one of which extends over several square miles, within which none but the Russians and Chinese have the right of permanent settlement.[^[86]] Russia would not consent to the opening of Harbin (and, presumably, all other cities within the “depots” of the Manchurian Railway) to foreign trade. Even outside of these cities, the Russian Government appeared to be opposed to the opening of new ports, and when it was no longer politic to continue the opposition, Russia informed other Powers in 1903 that she had no intention of objecting to the opening of new treaty ports “without foreign settlements” in Manchuria.[^[87]]

The meaning of all these protective and exclusive measures becomes plain, when it is seen that the complete control of the economic resources of Manchuria would give Russia, not only sufficient means to support Eastern Siberia, but also a great command over the trade of China and Japan. The latter country Russia might be able to reduce to dire distress, when necessary, by closing the supplies coming from Manchuria, upon which Japan will have to depend every year more closely than before.[^[88]] The success of these great designs on the part of Russia would depend upon how completely protective and exclusive her Manchurian policy can be made.

Coming from Manchuria to Korea, we find the economic position of the Russians in a totally different situation, for either their vested or even their potential interests in the Peninsula were slight, excepting, perhaps, their already acquired timber concessions[^[89]] on the northern frontier and the Kaiserling whale fishery on the northeastern coast.[^[90]] It has been pointed out, however, that the fact that Dalny was not altogether ice-free made Russia covet Chemulpo or some other trade port on the western coast of Korea.[^[91]] However that may be, it is safe to say that Russia’s interests in Korea are slightly economic, but almost wholly strategic and political.

Let us sum up our discussion at this point, and compare the economic interests of Russia and Japan in Manchuria and Korea. In Manchuria, both Powers seek trade and colonization, with the important difference that Japan’s interests are actually great and potentially greater, while those of Russia are both actually and potentially preponderant. A difference of greater moment lies, however, in the fact that, so far as her trade and industry are concerned, Japan’s interests call for an equal opportunity there for all industrial nations, while Russia’s interests may be maintained and developed only by a highly exclusive policy. In Korea, its opening for the trade, settlement, and enterprise of the Japanese is not only the most natural method of strengthening Korea herself, but also a primary condition for the life and growth of Japan. Russia’s economic interests there, on the other hand, may be measured by the number of her resident subjects and the extent of their enterprise, which are, outside of Yong-am-po, next to nothing. Her interests, being, as we shall soon see, mainly strategic and political, demand here also a policy directly opposed to the open door. If we now consider Manchuria and Korea together, it may be said that Russia’s economic interests are, even in Manchuria, rather for her glory as a great, expanding empire than for any imperative need of trade and emigration in that particular part of her Asiatic dominion, while similar interests of Japan, primarily in Korea and secondarily in Manchuria, are vital, as they are essential for her own life and development as a nation. The case for Russia can, perhaps, never be understood until her political issues are examined.

Politically, also, the interests of the two Powers are found to be directly opposed to one another. It has been rightly said that Manchuria is the keynote of the Eastern policy of Russia. Besides its immense wealth still unexploited, Manchuria possesses the great Port Arthur, which is the only nearly ice-free naval outlet for Russia in her vast dominion in Asia, while the 1500 miles of the Manchurian Railway, together with the Great Siberian Railway, connect this important naval station with the army bases in Siberia and European Russia, so that Manchuria alone would seem to be politically more valuable for Russia than the rest of her Asiatic territories. Without Manchuria, Russia would be left inclosed in the ice-bound Siberia, with no naval or commercial outlet during nearly five months of each year. With Manchuria, Russia’s traditional policy, which has repeatedly failed since Peter the Great on the Baltic Sea and other European waters, as also on the Persian Gulf,—the policy of becoming the dominant naval power of the world,—would at last begin to be realized. The very importance of Manchuria for Russia, however, constitutes a serious menace to Japan and to the general peace of the Far East. In the first place, the Russian control of Port Arthur gives her a large measure of control over the water approaches to Peking, while the Mongolian Railway now reported to be in contemplation would bring Russian land forces directly upon the capital of the Chinese Empire. The very integrity of China is threatened, and a more serious disturbance of the peace of the world could hardly be imagined than the general partition and internal outbreaks in China which would follow the fall of Peking under the pressure of Russia from Manchuria and Mongolia. Not less grave is the fact that Manchuria is geographically and historically connected with the Peninsula of Korea,[^[92]] which makes Russia’s occupation of Korea a necessary adjunct of her possession of Manchuria. Geographically considered, there exists no abrupt change from the eastern part of Manchuria to the northern half of Korea,[^[93]] which fact goes far to explain the Russian solicitude to obtain railway and other concessions between the frontier and Seul. Even more serious conditions exist on the southern coast of Korea, which contains the magnificent harbor of Masampo, which constitutes the Gibraltar between the Russian fleets at the ice-bound and remote Vladivostok and the incommodious and not altogether ice-free Port Arthur, with no effective means of connecting them. By controlling this coast, Russia would not merely possess a truly ice-free, and the best naval port to be found in East Asia,[^[94]] but also at last feel secure in Manchuria and complete her Far Eastern design of absorbing Korea and China and pressing down toward India. If, on the contrary, another Power should control Masampo, it would be able to watch the movement of the Russian fleets in their attempts to unite with one another, and also seriously impede the greatest hopes of Russia’s Eastern expansion. From Japan’s standpoint, the Russian occupation of this section of Korea would not only possibly close Korea against her trade and enterprise, but also threaten her own integrity. Only fifty miles away lie the Japanese islands of Tsushima, which Russia has always coveted, and which would have been hers had it not been for the shrewd diplomacy of the late Count Katsu.[^[95]] From Tsushima the mainland of Japan is visible on the eastern horizon, so that the presence of Russia at Masampo would arouse in the heart of Japan the most profound feeling of unrest. Russia must have Masampo, and Japan must not let her have it.

In concluding our discussion of the vital issues, both economical and political, which are at stake, it would seem that Manchuria is for Japan a great market as well as an increasingly important supply region of raw and food products and a field for emigration, while for Russia it is the keynote of her Eastern policy, and economically the most promising of all her Asiatic possessions. On the other hand, Korea is essential for Russia for the completion of her Manchurian policy,[^[96]] and for strengthening enormously her general position in the East. For Japan, Korea is nothing short of one half of her vitality. By the opening or closing, strength or weakness, independence or fall, of Korea, would Japan’s fate as a nation be decided. On the contrary, Russia, with Manchuria and ultimately Korea in her hands, would be able, on the one hand, to build up under her exclusive policy a naval and commercial influence strong enough to enable her to dominate the East, and, on the other, to cripple forever Japan’s ambition as a nation, slowly drive her to starvation and decay, and even politically annex her. From Japan’s point of view, Korea and China must be left open freely to the economic enterprise of herself and others alike, and, in order to effect that end, they must remain independent and become stronger by their internal development and reform.[^[97]] Russia’s interests are intelligible, as are Japan’s, but unfortunately their desires are antagonistic to each other, so that a conflict between an open and an exclusive policy is rendered inevitable. The series of events during the past decades, particularly since 1895, which we shall narrate in this volume, has only served to bring this conflict into a sharp clash in arms.

In closing, it may not be entirely out of place to attempt a speculation upon the significance of the conflict, not to the belligerents, but to the world at large. From the latter’s point of view, the contest may fairly be regarded as a dramatic struggle between two civilizations, old and new, Russia representing the old civilization and Japan the new. Two dominant features, among others, seem to characterize the opposition of the contending nations: namely, first, that Russia’s economics are essentially agricultural, while those of Japan are largely and increasingly industrial; and, secondly, that Japan’s strength lies more on sea than on land, while Russia represents an enormous contiguous expansion on land. It is evident that the wealth of a nation and its earning capacity cannot grow fast under a trade system under which it imports many and exports few manufactures.[^[98]] The commercial prosperity of Russia depended formerly upon its nearness, first to the trade route with the Levant, and then to the free cities of Germany, but with the fall of Constantinople and the decline of the Hansa towns the business activity of Southern and Baltic Russia has in turn passed away. Then, from the time of Ivan the Terrible, she unified her European territory, and expanded eastward on land, until she had embraced within her dominion much of Central and all of Northern Asia. For such an expansion Russia seems to have been particularly fitted, for her primitive economic organization suffers little from external disturbances, while the autocratic form of her government enables her to maintain and execute her traditional policy of expansion. But the real importance of her expansion appears to be more territorial than commercial, for the days of the land trade with the Orient are numbered. Even the great Siberian Railway would not successfully divert the Eastern trade landward.[^[99]] If Russia would be prosperous she must control the Eastern sea by occupying northeast China and Korea. Here she comes in conflict with Japan, the champion in the East of the rising civilization. The economic centre of the world has been fast passing to America, where cotton, wheat, coal, and iron abound, the people excel in energy and intelligence, and the government is servant to the welfare and progress of the people. Japan has joined the circle of this civilization, ever since the influence of the youthful nation of America was extended to her through Commodore Perry[^[100]] and Townsend Harris, and the spirit of national progress through industry and education was eagerly adopted by her. To-day, Japan stands within the range of the interests of the British and American sea-power over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans, while Russia, on the other hand, represents a vast expansion on land.

The historical bearing of the effects of the old civilization to the world may, perhaps, be best characterized by the one word—unnatural. Observe, first, the effect of the policy of land aggression on the internal affairs of Russia. The policy is costly. Hence the great incongruity between the economics of the people, which are agricultural, and the finance of her government, which would be too expensive even for the most highly advanced industrial nation. Hence, also, it is, perhaps, that the richer and more powerful her government becomes, the poorer and more discontented her people seem to grow. Her administration must naturally be maintained by the suspicion of her people and the suppression of their freedom,[^[101]] and the suspicion and suppression must become more exhaustive as the disparity widens between rulers and ruled.[^[102]] Under these circumstances, a constitutional régime would not be possible, for a free expression of the popular will would be hardly compatible with a form of government which seeks to strengthen the state at the expense of the nation. Again, consider the unnatural situation of an agricultural nation competing in the world’s market with industrial, trading nations which command a higher and more effective economic organization. If Russia would sell her goods, her markets abroad must be created and maintained by artificial means:[^[103]] protective and exclusive measures must be pushed to such an extent as to distance all foreign competition, the interests of the consumer must be disregarded,[^[104]] and those of the growing industrial nations must be sacrificed,[^[105]] all for the sake of artificially promoting the belated manufactures in Russia.[^[106]] From this unnatural state of things would seem to follow the Russian policy of territorial occupation and commercial exclusion in the East, and also her free use of the old-time intrigue in diplomacy; for it is Russia’s fortune that she would not be able to compete freely with the new, growing civilization, whose open arts she cannot employ to her advantage, but to whose advanced standard of international morals she must appear to conform. Her position forbids her to have recourse to an open policy and fair play, and yet she cannot afford to overtly uphold the opposite principles.[^[107]] On the other hand, the new civilization, represented in the present contest by Japan, relies more largely upon the energy and resources of the individual person, whose rights it respects, and upon an upright treatment by the nations of one another.

What is the goal of the warfare of these two civilizations? It is, it may be said, the immensely rich and yet undeveloped North China, of which Manchuria is a part, and to which Korea is an appendix. Over this territory, the interests of Russia and Japan have come to a clear and sharp clash, those of the former demanding the subjection and closure of this great portion of the earth’s surface, and those of the latter imperatively calling for its independence and progress.

Whoever wins, the issues are momentous. If Russia should win, not only Korea and Manchuria, but also Mongolia would be either annexed by Russia or placed under her protection, and Japan’s progress would be checked and her life would begin to fail. Russia would assume a commanding position over all the Powers in the East, while the trading nations of the world would be either largely or completely excluded from an important economic section of Asia. The Siberian railway system might at last be made to pay, and Russia’s exclusive policy would enable her and her ally France to divide the profit of the Eastern trade with the more active industrial nations. The old civilization would enjoy an artificial revival, under the influence of which China and Korea would be exploited by the victors and, for the most part,[^[108]] closed against reformatory influences from abroad. All these momentous results would be in the interest of an exclusive policy incorporating principles which are generally regarded as inimical to freedom and progress. If, on the contrary, Japan should win, the doubtful importance of the Siberian Railroad as a carrier of the Eastern trade would in the mean time be further overshadowed by the Panama Canal, and it would be compelled to perform its perhaps proper function of developing the vast resources of Siberia and Manchuria. The Oriental commerce would be equally free and open to all; the Empires of China and Korea would not only remain independent, but, under the influence of the new civilization, their enormous resources would be developed and their national institutions reformed, the immense advantages of which would be enjoyed by all the nations which are interested in the East. There would naturally result a lasting peace in the East and the general uplifting of one third of the human race. Japan’s growth and progress after the war would be even more remarkable than in the past. In short, East Asia would be forcibly brought under the influence of the new civilization, the effect of which would not be without a profound reaction upon Russia herself. Humanity at large, including the Russians, would thereby be the gainer. The difference in the effects of the outcome of the war, according to who is the victor, would be tremendous. Which will win, the old civilization or the new? The world at this moment stands at the parting of the ways.

SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE
ON THE SIBERIAN RAILWAY[^[109]]

According to an estimate made by a Russian expert of the carrying capacity of the great Siberian railway system,[^[110]] the Siberian section alone will carry at least 190 million poods, and the Manchurian section from 100 to 150 million poods, making a total of 300 to 350 million poods, approximately. It is contended, however, that, while the present conditions of the inhabitants of Siberia and Manchuria make it possible for the railway to carry only raw and crudely manufactured goods, these are the very articles whose cost would easily be raised by the long distance over which they have to be carried by rail. In Europe, it never pays to carry these articles for a longer distance than 2000 miles. Nor would it in Siberia, unless abnormal reductions are made in freight rates, or unless commerce and manufacture are artificially fostered in Siberia and Manchuria. It is supposed, therefore, that it would always be unprofitable to carry bulky, cheap goods between Europe and the East on the Siberian Railway. China’s exports to Russia consist of such costly goods as teas and silks, which may be profitably transported by rail, but thus far even teas have only begun to be so transported under more or less artificial measures in favor of the railway traffic at the expense of the routes through Kiakhta, up the Amur, and by sea to Odessa. As to Russian imports into China, cotton and woolen goods and metals would never be carried by rail under normal circumstances.[^[111]] The benefit of the eight thousand versts of the railway from Moscow to Dalny may be safely said to be as slight to the carrying trade as it is great to the travelers and postal service between Europe and the East.

The statistics for 1899 and 1900 show that the bulk of the Russian trade with China was carried on land, but that the land trade was decreasing and sea trade increasing. See the following table (unit 1000 rubles):[^[112]]—

It should be noted, however, that the period covered by the table is not only too short, but also precedes the opening of the Manchurian Railroad to trade, which took place only in 1903. Nor should it be overlooked that the figures indicate the China trade of Russia alone.

Regarding the European trade with China in general, M. Sorokin, Assistant Director of Customs at Niu-chwang, is reported to have remarked that the freight per pood from Europe to the East was five rubles on land and 1.50 on sea.[^[113]] Certain articles, such as glassware, tobacco, and the like, seem to be carried from Russia to China at two rubles by rail and one ruble by ships.[^[114]] The sea route consumes nearly two months, but, for bulky merchandise, it would be impossible for the railway to compete with it.

It is interesting, in this connection, to remember that, from America, the freight between San Francisco and the Eastern ports has been reduced repeatedly during the last year, owing to the competition among the shipping companies, so that the charge for flour does not seem to be more than one mill per ton-mile, or forty cents a hundred pounds for 8000 miles.

During 1901, according to the latest statistics available, the deficit of the Ussuri branch of the Siberian Railway is said to have amounted to $435,162, and that of the entire railway to $11,330,000.[^[115]]

In this connection, it is interesting to note that this view is further confirmed by no less authority than Count Cassini, the present Russian Minister at Washington, who, in his statement given on April 9, and published in the North American Review for May, 1904, said:

“... Consider Russia’s position commercially toward Manchuria with that of the United States. In this country [the United States] are made not only the very materials that would find a sale among the people of the province, but with American goods shipped by an all-water route, the cost of transportation would be much lower than the cost of carrying on the all-land routes to which Russia would be confined. Should Russia ship by water to Manchuria from Odessa, the distance would still be too great to make competition with the United States successful. From Moscow to Port Arthur the distance by rail is 5000 miles. It is therefore easy to realize the privileged position of the United States in competing over an all-water route from the Pacific coast, with Russia over an all-rail route.”[^[116]]

CHAPTER I
RETROCESSION OF THE LIAO-TUNG PENINSULA

The way in which the momentous issues already discussed in the introductory chapter have been at work and have steadily culminated in the present conflict is with unusual clearness and in the most instructive manner illustrated by the historic events which led up to the outbreak of the war. The study of these events also appears essential for an intelligent understanding of the situation, for, in this crisis, as in many another in history, the contestants do not seem to be always conscious of even the more important issues at stake, while the events, in their main outlines, are patent to every one. The former may be found only by an analysis of facts, some of which are obscure, but the latter are narrated dramatically, from time to time as they occur or are published, in the press and in the diplomatic correspondence, so that it is little wonder that the events are often taken for the causes, even the significance, of the supreme fact to which they seem to point. The student should investigate the issues if he would know the meaning of the war, but, if he wishes to see something of the conscious attitude which the belligerents take toward the situation, perhaps no more profitable way can be found than in a study of the events through which the issues have been writing history.

The conflict of Russia and Japan was foreshadowed already in the middle of the past century, when the former began to claim some of the Kurile Islands and the whole of Sakhalien, upon parts of which Japan had long exercised vague sovereign rights.[^[117]] Presently, in 1858, Muravieff “Amurski” succeeded in creating a common proprietary right with China over the vast territory lying between the Ussuri River and the sea.[^[118]] The same territory was, only two years later, definitively annexed[^[119]] to Russia through the skillful diplomacy of Ignatieff, Russian Minister at Peking, who, taking advantage of China’s defeat at the hands of the allied forces of England and France, had won the favor of the Chinese Government by acting as mediator between it and the allies. The Eastern naval headquarters of Russia, which had been transferred from Peterpavlofsk in Kamchatka to Nicolaiefsk at the mouth of the Amur, was now again moved further south to Vladivostok, founded in 1860, at the southern end of the new territory. No sooner did the remote but certain pressure from the expanding northern Power begin to be felt in Japan than, in 1861, a Russian man-of-war took possession of the Japanese islands of Tsushima in the Korean straits, from which it withdrew only at the instance of the British Minister, Sir Rutherford Alcock.[^[120]] Half a dozen years after, the island of Sakhalien was placed under a common possession between Russia and Japan, while, in 1875, the island was surrendered to Russia, Japan receiving in return the chain of sterile Chishima Islands (the Kuriles).[^[121]] This brought the presence of Russia still nearer home to Japan than before. On the other hand, Russia seemed to have only begun her ambitious career in Eastern Asia, for she could hardly be expected to be forever satisfied with her naval headquarters at Vladivostok, a station which, situated as it was at the southern extremity of her Oriental dominion, was so completely ice-bound during a large part of each year that her fleet was obliged to winter in Japanese harbors.

Then followed a comparatively long period of inactivity on the part of Russia. When, however, in 1891, she finally resolved to build the trans-Siberian Railway, the inadequacy of Vladivostok, not only as the Pacific naval harbor of the Russian Empire, but also as the terminus of the great railroad, became evident. To Russia a southern expansion toward an ice-free outlet seemed now a necessity. For the realization of this desire, an opportunity presented itself in a striking form, in 1895, at the end of the Chinese-Japanese war.

In order to obtain a clear understanding of this situation, it is necessary to return to the outbreak of hostilities and thence trace the evolution of Chinese diplomacy up to their close. At the unexpected dispatch of large forces by Japan to Korea, in June, 1894, the Chinese Government appealed to some foreign Ministers at Peking to bring pressure to bear upon Japan to withdraw her troops from the Peninsula. The Russian Minister is said to have observed that Russia would not be prepared to organize an armed coercion until Japan endeavored to exercise actual control over the Korean Kingdom, but might undertake to tender friendly advice to Japan to withdraw. England was reluctant, but as an appeal was again made to the Powers, she took the lead in persuading others to join in a concert to stay Japan’s hand in Korea. The plan was, however, frustrated by the emphatic refusal of Germany to consider it. An ineffectual counsel was then made to Japan by a few of the Powers individually, not to embark upon a war against China.[^[122]] A war, nevertheless, ensued, with a rare success on the part of Japan. During the course of hostilities, China seems to have more than once[^[123]] avowed her impotence and requested the Powers to intervene, until her repeated reverses on land and the well-nigh complete annihilation of her northern squadron brought her to such straits that the friendly Powers could no longer remain inactive. Japan also intimated her willingness to negotiate for peace. After the envoys whom China had sent with insufficient powers had been twice refused by Japan, Li Hung-chang, later to be joined by his son-in-law, Li Ching-fang, arrived with plenary powers at Shimonoseki, on March 19, 1895, where he was received by the Japanese Plenipotentiaries, Count Itō, Premier, and Viscount Mutsu, Foreign Minister. It appears, however, that China had already signified to certain Powers her suspicion that Japan desired the cession of a territory on the Chinese mainland. Before, therefore, Li Hung-chang left the Chinese shores, the German Minister at Tokio was instructed by his government to warn the Japanese Foreign Office that certain Powers had been contemplating assent to China’s appeal to interfere, and that the demand for a cession of territory on the continent would be particularly calculated to provoke such an intervention.[^[124]]

It was under these circumstances that negotiations were opened between the Chinese and Japanese Plenipotentiaries on March 20. It is unnecessary here to recount the story of an abortive attempt made on Li’s life by a fanatic, and of the consequent armistice for twenty days. At Li’s recovery, the Japanese terms for peace were proposed on April 1, which with amendments became the basis of the final Treaty[^[125]] signed at Shimonoseki on April 17. It provided, among other things, for the absolute independence of Korea, the cession to Japan of the Liao-tung Peninsula, Formosa, and the Pescadores, and an indemnity of two hundred million taels. Of the ceded territories, the Liao-tung being situated, as it were, in a position to hold a key at once to Peking, Manchuria, and Korea, its cession to Japan was probably calculated, from the latter’s point of view, first, to render any renewed attempt of China to dominate Korea impossible, and, secondly, to establish an effective barrier against the southern expansion of Russia.[^[126]]

Naturally, the progress of the peace negotiations had been watched with keen interest by the European Powers. Particularly alert was Russia, whose press deprecated so early as March 31 the alleged intention of Japan to secure territory on the mainland, and which, as soon as Li Hung-chang communicated to her early in April the terms proposed by Japan and appealed to her to interfere, discerned in those terms a great turning-point of her own career in the East. She must at once have realized the grave danger to the entire future of her Eastern policy from Japan’s occupation of the Liao-tung Peninsula, as well as the immense advantages which her own possession of the same territory would confer upon herself. Nor did the Korean independence, which the new treaty secured, fail to be interpreted by the Russian press as an exclusive protectorate to be exercised by Japan over the Kingdom. “Russia,” wrote the Novoe Vremya about April 20, “cannot permit the protectorate over Korea which Japan has secured for herself by the conditions of the treaty. If the single port of Port Arthur remain in possession of Japan, Russia will severely suffer in the material interest and in the prestige of a Great Power.”[^[127]] It was just the time to intervene. China had shown herself impotent, and had appealed for intervention, and Japan was an exhausted victor. By one clever stroke Russia might coerce the latter and ingratiate herself with the former. She would, however, perhaps have thought twice before she acted, had it not been for the active assistance rendered to her by France and Germany. At a council, it is said, Russian naval and military authorities concluded that Russia alone could not successfully combat Japan, which, however, might be coerced if Russia coöperated with France. An active communication of views now ensued between the Foreign Offices of St. Petersburg, Berlin, Paris, and London. The diplomatic correspondence of the day is still withheld from the public view, but it is well-known that France readily acceded to the Russian desire for a joint intervention, and Germany suddenly changed her former attitude toward Japan and allied herself with the two intervening Powers; while Great Britain, which had more than once acted in favor of China, altered her course to the opposite direction by declining to admit that Japan’s terms of peace were prejudicial to her own interests. The reasons avowed by Germany and France for their assistance to Russia would seem to be rather unconvincing, unless one takes for granted the existence of certain unexpressed motives for the act. Germany claimed to have found in the terms of peace a future menace to the political and economical interests of Europe, for those terms “would constitute a political preponderance of Japan over China,” to use the language of “an evidently inspired article” of the Cologne Gazette, “and would exercise a determining influence on the development of China’s economic condition, and of the sway of Japan in that country. From this it is concluded that Japan is endeavoring to post herself as a sentry, as it were, before all the chief important routes of China. As Japan commands, by Port Arthur and Wei-hai-Wei, the approach to the Yellow Sea, and, by Formosa and the Pescadores, the chief commercial route to China, it is taken to be desirous of encircling her with a firm girdle, in order, if necessary, to seclude her completely from the world. The European Powers, therefore, wish to ward off in time any steps prejudicial to their interests.”[^[128]] Nor did the reasons brought forward by France seem to be more germane to her own interests than those of Germany were to hers. The Débats wrote, on April 31, that all the clauses on the occupation of continental territory were impossible for Europe to recognize. Moreover, Port Arthur, with a strip of territory round it in the hands of the Japanese, would be a menace for the independence of Korea, as much as for the security of Peking. The Temps also said that Japan’s predominance over China, which would be the ultimate result of the arrangement, was “a constant menace for the interests of Europe. It was a serious blow dealt at the rights of the immediate adjacent Powers.... A European concert was now a duty toward civilization.” Perhaps it is safe to say that, so far as France was concerned, her desire to oblige her political ally was a more real ground for her coöperation with the latter than any other presented in her press. As for Germany, her Foreign Minister then remarked, it is said, that Japan had never requited the favors Germany had done her during the war, but had, on the contrary, deliberately concluded with China a treaty containing provisions not only excessively favorable to Japan, but also prejudicial to the political and economic interests of Europe. This remark, again, hardly explains the suddenly changed attitude of Germany. Perhaps it is well to surmise that there existed deeper and more complex diplomatic reasons, upon which it would be idle here to speculate. The declination of Great Britain to join in the concert may more easily be accounted for. China, which she had at first favored, had not only been inclining toward Russia, but had shown herself by her incompetency less worthy of trust than the ambitious Japan. The latter had also secured in the treaty certain commercial and industrial privileges in South China which would be even more advantageous to Great Britain than to Japan, while, on the other hand, the former had little reason to suppose that Japan’s retention of the Liao-tung was designed to imperil China and Korea. On the contrary, the presence of Japan at the strategic position on the mainland might prove an effective check upon Russia, whose cause Great Britain was the least inclined to advocate. She therefore stood aloof from the joint intervention, and her conduct provoked a bitter resentment in the Russian and French press.[^[129]]

The plan of intervention seems to have matured between Russia, France, and Germany by April 20, and, on April 23, their representatives at Tokio separately presented brief notes at the Foreign Office. These notes, accompanied as they were by the verbal profession of each of the Governments, particularly the German, of its friendly motive in the act, intimated that Japan’s retention of the territory was considered by them as not only imperiling the Chinese Capital, but also making the Korean independence illusory, and, consequently, prejudicial to the permanent peace of the Far East.[^[130]] The treaty of Shimonoseki had been signed on April 17, and the exchange of its ratifications fixed for May 8. The Japanese Government had to answer the three Powers within the fifteen days between April 23 and May 8, for, whatever its decision regarding the Liao-tung, it would be unwise to postpone the ratification of the treaty with China.[^[131]] In the mean time, the Eastern fleets of the three Powers were augmented and concentrated, and made ready, if need be, for an immediate and concerted action, Russia going even so far as to prepare the army contingents in the Amur region for quick mobilization. Unknown as it was how thoroughly the Powers were determined, in case Japan should refuse to consider their counsel, to appeal to force of arms, none the less real was their idea of coercion, as well as the exhaustion of Japan’s resources. On the other hand, the common interests of Japan, Great Britain, and the United States had not developed to such an extent as to justify their united resistance against the intervening Powers. Japan seems to have complied with the Powers’ wishes so far as to agree to retrocede the Liao-tung save the small peninsula of Kin-chow containing Port Arthur, but the Powers declined for evident reasons to accede to the proposed compromise. The British Foreign Minister also urged Japan to make to the susceptibilities of Europe all concessions compatible with her dignity and her permanent interests.[^[132]] The Japanese Government, after holding repeated conference before the Throne and with military councilors,[^[133]] definitely resolved, on May 4, to relinquish, for an additional monetary consideration from China,[^[134]] all of the Liao-tung. Evidently time was too limited and the occasion too inopportune for Japan successfully to induce China to pledge not to alienate in the future any part of the retroceded territory to another Power. On May 10, the entire nation of Japan beheld with deep emotions the simultaneous publication of the treaty of Shimonoseki, which had been ratified in its original form, and of a special Imperial decree countersigned by all the Ministers of the Cabinet, announcing that a desire to insure a permanent repose of the Orient had compelled Japan to go to war, and that the same desire had now prompted the three Powers to tender to Japan their present friendly counsel, which the Emperor, for the sake of peace, had accepted.[^[135]]

The historical significance of this memorable incident deserves special emphasis. It is not too much to say that with it Eastern Asiatic history radically changed its character, for it marks the beginning of a new era, in which the struggle is waged no longer among the Oriental nations themselves, but between sets of interests and principles which characterize human progress at its present stage, and which are represented by the greatest Powers of the world. China’s position as a dominant exclusive force was no sooner overthrown in Korea than it was replaced by that of another power of a like policy and with aggressive tendencies. Moreover, the area opened to the advance of Russia covered not only Korea, but also Northern China and beyond, and the new aggressor was the very power which had thirty years before created a restless feeling among the Japanese, by extending toward them through Primorsk and Sakhalien its already enormous contiguous dominion. The influence of Russia was now brought face to face with that of Japan, each with a promise to extend against, and perhaps to clash with, the other. With the movement of Russia there traveled from Europe to East Asia her sympathetic relations with France, while against this practical alliance stood the increasing common interests and sympathies of Japan, Great Britain, and the United States; Germany remaining as a free lance between the two groups of Powers. This remarkable accession, in both area and agents, of the new activity in the East was heralded in, to all appearance, not gradually, but with a sudden sweep. And gravely ominous was its opening scene, representing at once a pretended good-will toward a feeble empire and an armed coercion of a proud nation whom coercion would only stimulate to greater ambition.

It now remains for us to interpret the effects wrought upon Japan by the intervention of the three Powers, for the sentiment of the nation seems to be so universally and persistently misunderstood as to have caused even some of the natives to misconstrue their own feelings. It is generally supposed that the conduct of the Powers in depriving Japan of her prize of victory excited in her breast a deep feeling of revenge, but this view seems to evince too slight an understanding of the characteristics of the nation. Also, the prevailing sense of pity manifested by friendly foreigners toward Japan for her alleged misfortune appears entirely misplaced, for, on the contrary, she has derived an inestimable benefit from the experience. Let us explain. The most obvious lesson drawn by the best minds of Japan, and unconsciously but deeply shared by the entire nation, was neither that the Powers were acting upon a principle altogether different from their professed motive, for that was too plain to every one; nor that she must some day humiliate the very Powers which had brought coercion upon her, because it was well known that their self-interest had demanded it, as hers would, were she in their place. Japan suddenly awoke to an absorbing desire which left little room for the question of national revenge. It became to her as clear as daylight that the new position she had acquired in the Orient by her victory over China could be maintained, and even her independence must be guarded, only by an armament powerful enough to give her a voice among the first Powers of the world. If she would not retire into herself, and finally cease to exist, she must compete with the greatest nations, not only in the arts of peace,[^[136]] but also in those of war. Moreover, a far vaster conflict than she had ever known in her history, excepting the Mongol invasion of the thirteenth century, was seen to be awaiting her. It is perhaps characteristic of modern Japan that she scarcely has time to breathe. The only course to save her seemed to be, now as at any other recent crisis of her life, to go forward and become equal to the new, expanding situation. As soon as her supremacy in the East was assured, Japan thus found herself confronted with a task hitherto almost unpremeditated, and henceforth began an enormous extension of her military forces,[^[137]] as well as a redoubled activity in all other lines of national progress.[^[138]]

What is less obvious, but still more important, is—it is questionable if there is in the entire range of Japan’s national life another point less understood abroad but more essential for an insight into the present and future of the Extreme Orient than this—the increased enthusiasm of Japan in her ardent effort to strengthen her position in the world by basing her international conduct upon the fairest and best-tried principles of human progress. The effort is not free from occasional errors, but the large issue grows ever clearer in Japan’s mind. A study of her past would seem to convince one with overwhelming evidence that her historic training has produced in Japan moral and material characteristics eminently fit for the pursuit of such a policy. However that may be, the subsequent evolution of her interests at home and abroad seems, by a fortunate combination of circumstances, to have irrevocably committed her to this course; for not only does a common policy along these lines draw her and the Anglo-Saxon nations closer together, but it is therein also that the vital promise of her future seems to lie.[^[139]] And it may be added, the consciousness of this powerful unity of moral and material life seems to have infused a thrilling new force into that historic love of country of the Japanese nation.[^[139]] It is to the intervention of 1895 and the situation that ensued that Japan owes the hastening of all these results.

CHAPTER II
THE “CASSINI CONVENTION” AND THE RAILWAY AGREEMENT

Regarded, however, from a broader point of view, no one could predict a happy consequence of so ominous a beginning, as has been described, of the new Eastern situation. By her successful intervention, Russia had conferred upon China a signal favor, for which a reward was expected; but the reward, again, assumed such a form that it at the same time served as a new favor looking toward a fresh reward, so that the final resultant of the repeated process proved altogether out of proportion to the initial deed of patronage. The first step of this process was a 4 per cent. loan[^[144]] to China of 400,000,000 francs at 94⅛, and payable in thirty-six years, beginning with 1896. Not only were these liberal terms attended by no security, but also the interest was guaranteed by a special edict of the Czar.[^[145]] The loan was issued principally from Paris in July, 1895,[^[146]] and the income was intended to cover one half[^[147]] of China’s indemnity to Japan.[^[148]] In order to facilitate the transactions in connection with this loan, as well as to promote the commercial relations between Russia and Eastern Asia, the Russo-Chinese Bank was organized late in 1895. In August, 1896,[^[149]] the Chinese Government was induced to contribute 5,000,000 taels toward the capital of the Bank, which seem to have been paid out of the new loan.[^[150]] Later in the same year, Prince Ukhtomsky, president of the Bank, who had come to Peking with an immense number of costly presents to be distributed among the members of the Court, succeeded in securing the consent of the Chinese Government to the Statutes of the Bank, which were subsequently published on December 8.[^[151]] The privileges of the institution as enumerated in these Statutes included the receiving of tax returns, management of local finances, coining, payment of the interests of the public bonds, and construction of railways and telegraph lines in China, in so far as concessions should be made by her Government to the Bank. The latter now has more than thirty branches and agencies in East Asia, and this professedly private corporation has since proved to be a great instrument through which the Russian Government has obtained from China enormous concessions in Manchuria.

Before we examine the nature of these concessions, it is important to observe what took place between Russia and China through the official channels. On March 27, 1896, the Eastern world was startled to see the publication in the North China Daily News of a treaty of defensive alliance concluded earlier in the same year between Russia and China. The Japanese Government had already, on March 16, been assured by the Foreign Office at St. Petersburg that the treaty did not exist.[^[152]] It is not clear whether the denial referred to the particular treaty in question or to any treaty of alliance whatsoever. However that may be, the reported agreement[^[153]] was of the most serious character, as will be gathered from the following abstract. In recognition of the service rendered by Russia regarding the matter of the Liao-tung Peninsula and of the loan, the Chinese Emperor desired to conclude with Russia a treaty of alliance; and, consequently, it was agreed, in secrecy, that, if Russia should come in conflict with other Asiatic Powers, she should be allowed to make free use of any port or harbor on the Chinese coast, and, in case of urgent need, levy troops from among the Chinese people. If a protest should be made by other Powers, China should answer that she was powerless to resist Russian demands. If she should desire even to render active assistance to Russia against the common enemy, she might do so, but this point required further discussion. In view of the great disadvantages of the ice-bound naval harbors of Russia, China agreed to allow her in time of peace a free use of Port Arthur, or, if the other Powers should object, of Kiao-chau. If the latter should be found inadequate, Russia might choose any harbor on the coast of Kiang-su and Che-kiang. If, on the other hand, China should be at war with another Power, Russia should endeavor to effect a compromise between the belligerents, and, if the effort should fail, it should be the duty of Russia openly to assist China and thereby strengthen the alliance between the two Powers. In regard to Manchuria, Russian military officers should be free to travel along the eastern frontiers of the Sheng-king and Kirin Provinces and to navigate the Yalu and other rivers, the object being either to further trade or to patrol the frontiers. When the Siberian Railway was completed, a branch line might be constructed under the joint control of China and Russia, passing through the Provinces of Heilung and Kirin, and reaching Talien or some other place selected by Russia. In order to protect this line, Russia might possess near Talien-wan an island and the opposite shore, fortify them, and station there her squadron and military forces. If a war should arise between Russia and Japan concerning Korea, China should allow Russia to send her troops toward the Yalu, so as to enable them to attack the western boundary of Korea.

No matter whether any treaty of alliance had been signed between China and Russia early in 1896, significant events soon followed which gave rise to rumors of grave import. When it was resolved by China to send Wang Tsz-chun to St. Petersburg as special envoy to attend the coronation of the Czar, which was to take place in May of the same year, M. Cassini, Russian Minister at Peking, is said to have intimated that no one but Li Hung-chang was acceptable to Russia as the representative of the Chinese Emperor. Li’s pro-Russian proclivities had been well known, but he had up to this time been in disgrace for having concluded the treaty of Shimonoseki so unfavorable to China. He now regained his favor with the Court, and started on his mission to Russia, presumably taking with him the draft of the Russo-Chinese convention which M. Cassini had framed. The convention is reported to have been signed, to avoid suspicion of other Powers, not at St. Petersburg, but at Moscow, and, on the Russian side, not by M. Lobanoff, Foreign Minister, but by M. Witte, Minister of Finance. When, however, the agreement was referred to the Yamên at Peking for ratification, a large majority of the Chinese Ministers are said to have disapproved the terms of Li’s treaty, until the strenuous efforts of M. Cassini turned the tide and the convention was ratified by the Emperor on September 30, 1896. This is the celebrated “Cassini Convention.”[^[154]] Let us now examine the more important of its contents. The preamble explicitly referred, as also did the treaty of alliance already summarized, to the favors done to China by Russia at the close of the recent war. The body of the convention falls, in its substance, into two large divisions, namely, the Articles (1–6) relating to railway concessions in Manchuria, and those (8–11) in regard to the disposition of certain ports on the Chinese littoral. Russia was allowed to extend the Siberian Railway to Vladivostok across Manchuria via Aigun, Tsitsihar, Petuna, Kirin, and Kun-chun (Art. 1). As regards the projected Chinese railroad between Shan-hai-kwan and Mukden, if China should find it inconvenient to build it, Russia might furnish capital and construct the line, China reserving to herself the option of buying it after ten years of Russian management (Art. 2). Another Chinese line in contemplation between Shan-hai-kwan and Port Arthur and Talien-wan via Niu-chwang, and its appurtenances, should be built in accordance with the general railway regulations of Russia (Art. 4). The fifth Article was striking: All the railways built by Russia in the Chinese territory were to be protected by the local Chinese authorities, but in the more remote regions, where the necessary protection was not available, Russia was allowed, in order to afford a better protection to her railroad and property, to station special battalions of Russian infantry and cavalry. Regarding the ports, it was agreed that Russia might lease Kiao-chau for fifteen years for the use of her squadron, but, in order to avoid suspicion by other Powers, she should not immediately occupy the harbor or seize the points commanding it (Art. 9). In view of the strategic importance of Port Arthur and Talien-wan and their adjacent territories, China should in haste provide for their adequate defense and repair their fortification, and Russia should render all necessary aid for the protection of the two harbors, and should not allow any other Power to attack them; if, for urgent necessity, Russia should engage in a war, China should allow her, to enable her to attack the enemy and defend her own position with greater ease, temporarily to concentrate her military and naval forces in those harbors (Art. 10). So long, however, as Russia was not involved in hostilities, China should retain all rights in the control of Port Arthur and Talien-wan, and Russia should not interfere with them in any manner (Art. 11). In addition to these Articles, it was provided that, if China should desire to reorganize the entire army of Manchuria on the European basis, she should engage the services of Russian military instructors (Art. 8). In the matter of mining, Russian and Chinese subjects might, with the consent of local authorities, work all kinds of minerals in the Heilung and Kirin Provinces, and in the Long White Mountains (Art. 7).

COUNT CASSINI
Russian Minister at Washington, and formerly at Peking

Such are the contents, in brief, of the much debated “Cassini Convention,” the existence of which has been as often alleged as denied. The reported document may well be unauthentic, at any rate in several important particulars. Its main interest consists, however, not so much in the question of its literal authenticity, as in the important facts, (1) that the subsequent course of events is largely foreshadowed in its contents, and (2) that high Russian authorities have obtained, or at least claimed, certain privileges which cannot be found in all the other Russo-Chinese contracts that are known to us, but are in one way or another reflected in the present convention. The universal belief in the diplomatic world appears to be that, if the published text of the Cassini Convention is untrustworthy, some of its substance must have been contained in an agreement which Li Hung-chang signed in Russia in 1895, and in some later secret agreements. Nor is it impossible to substantiate this belief from evidence of undoubted authenticity. Thus M. Pavloff, the Russian Chargé d’Affaires at Peking, said, on October 8, 1897, to Sir Claude MacDonald, the British Minister, that “shortly after the return of Li Hung-chang from his mission to St. Petersburg, the Chinese Government had informed the Russian Minister that they had up intention of continuing the Northern line [beyond Shan-hai-kwan toward Kirin], but if at any time they did continue it, owing to the particularly friendly relations existing between the Russian and Chinese Governments, they would in the first instance address themselves to Russian engineers and employ, if necessary, Russian capital.”[^[155]] It will at once be observed that this closely corresponds to Article 3 of the Cassini Convention. On this ground, M. Pavloff considered it a “contravention of the agreement”[^[156]] on the part of the Chinese Government that the latter allowed British subjects, on June 7, 1898, to furnish capital and the chief engineer for the extension of the Northern line, and, repeatedly and in a manner highly irritating to the British and Chinese Governments, demanded the replacement of Mr. Kinder and his staff with Russian engineers.[^[157]] It was again in the same spirit that Russia succeeded in inducing England to insert in the additional clauses of the Anglo-Russian railway agreement of April 28, 1899, a statement to the effect that the Russians might extend the Manchurian Railway in a southwesterly direction through the region traversed by the Northern Chinese line built with British capital,[^[158]] Count Muravieff explaining that M. Witte attached importance to the insertion of this clause.[^[159]] Well he might, for no sooner was the Agreement concluded than Russia pressed China, though without success, for the concession for a railway reaching directly to Peking itself.[^[160]] Again, if the provision in the Cassini Convention that China should with all haste repair the fortification of Port Arthur, with the assistance of Russia, and, in case of necessity, turn it over to the use of the latter’s fleet (Art. 10), was false, it was not long before Count Muravieff could declare, in December, 1897, that an “offer” had been made by the Chinese Government to allow the Russian squadron to winter at the port.[^[161]] More significant still was M. Pavloff’s remark to Sir Claude MacDonald, that “he must tell him frankly that the Russian Government intended that the provinces of China bordering on the Russian frontier must not come under the influence of any nation except Russia.”[^[162]] Sir Claude pointed out that Kirin, the probable terminus of the extension line, to which M. Pavloff had objected, was more than two hundred miles from the Russian frontier, but the Chargé had evidently marked out the entire Manchurian provinces as a Russian sphere of influence. It may be said that this claim even exceeded the Cassini Convention and verged to the less trustworthy treaty of alliance. The attention of the reader may, however, be called to a still more direct evidence than the veiled remarks of M. Pavloff. In the official statement accompanying the text of the Russo-Chinese Convention of April 8, 1902, which was published in the Official Messenger of April 12, occur the following words: “The Chinese Government, on their side, confirm all the obligations they have previously undertaken toward Russia, and particularly the provisions of the 1896 agreement, which must serve as a basis for the friendly relations of the neighboring Empires. By this defensive agreement, Russia undertook in 1896 to maintain the principle of the independence and integrity of China, who, on her side, gave Russia the right to construct a line through Manchuria, and to enjoy the material privileges which are directly connected with the above undertaking.”[^[163]] It is impossible to find any one contract concluded in 1896 which either might be considered a “defensive agreement” or contains the points enumerated in the quoted passage. The so-called Cassini Convention alone contains the provisions about the railway, as well as Articles 9 and 10, which may be said to “maintain the principle of the independence and integrity of China.”[^[164]] The coincidence becomes even more striking when we consider, together with the Convention, the reported treaty of defensive alliance of 1896, which may be regarded, if any, the preliminary plan of the Convention. It is also interesting to note that when Dr. George Morrison, the noted Peking correspondent of the Times, had an interview with Prince Ching on March 19, 1901, and directly referred to the supposed existence of a series of secret agreements between Russia and China, beginning with the one which Li Hung-chang negotiated during his mission in St. Petersburg, the Prince “assented without the slightest demur.”[^[165]] Finally, we are in possession of a vague statement made by Count Cassini himself, who, in 1904, referred to the treaty “giving to Russia railroad and other concessions in Manchuria,” which, said he, “I had the honor to negotiate [at Peking] in behalf of my Sovereign.”[^[166]] The agreement of September 8, 1896, to which we shall presently turn, “giving railway and other concessions in Manchuria,” was concluded between the Chinese Minister at St. Petersburg and the Russo-Chinese Bank, and, unless Count Cassini negotiated it at Peking at the same time that the Chinese Minister did at the Russian capital, it may be inferred that the former, in his quoted statement, referred to a “Cassini Convention.” It is not at all impossible, however, that both he in China and Mr. Hu in Russia took part in the negotiations which resulted in the conclusion of the agreement of September 8, 1896.

Taking all these indications together, it seems almost safe to aver that at least two important items of concessions—namely, railway grants and the use of some ports for strategic purposes—must in some form have been secured by Russia after 1896, and before the actual lease of Port Arthur and Talien-wan in 1898. It is needless to say that these two objects, railways and ports, possessed a political meaning of the greatest moment, the ports affording the Russian navy a commanding point on the Pacific coast, and the railways ultimately connecting that point with the army bases in Siberia and European Russia.

Of these two items, it was the railways that first emerged from the state of a preliminary to that of a final agreement between Russia and China. And it was here that the Russo-Chinese Bank played a great rôle for the Russian Government, for the Agreement of August 27 (September 8), 1896,[^[167]] providing for the construction by the Russians of a railway through Manchuria connecting the Trans-Baikal and South Ussuri lines of the Siberian railway system, was concluded between the Chinese Minister at St. Petersburg and the Bank. The latter undertook to organize the Eastern Chinese[^[168]] Railway Company with its accounts separate from those of the Bank (Art. 1). It is instructive to note that it is stated in the preamble of this Agreement that the Chinese Government “intrusted”[^[169]] the Bank to undertake the construction of the line, and that the government agreed to contribute 5,000,000 taels toward the capital of the Company.[^[170]] The Russian troops should be transported by the railway without obstruction and at half-fare (Arts. 8 and 9). Upon the basis of this Agreement were promulgated by the Government of the Czar Statutes[^[171]] providing for the construction and operation of the railway. Nothing can better betray than these two documents, the Agreement and the Statutes, that the enterprise was only in a very limited sense an undertaking of a private company. In the first place, the capital of the Company was divided into share-capital and bond-capital, the former, not guaranteed by the Russian Government, being limited to only 5,000,000 rubles, while the latter, which was officially guaranteed, could be indefinitely expanded according to necessity.[^[172]] It in fact had already before the present war swollen to the enormous sum of over 270,000,000 rubles.[^[173]] In the second place, the operation of the railroad was placed upon the uniform basis of the Siberian system, and under the management of a board whose nominal president was a Chinese,[^[174]] but whose vice-president, who was to assume the actual direction, was under the supervision of the Minister of Finance.[^[175]] Finally, but not the least in importance, was the provision regarding the protection of the railway and its employees and the policing of the lands assigned to the road and its appurtenances. The former duty was to be performed by the Chinese Government, but the latter “was confined to police agents appointed by the Company. The Company shall for this purpose draw up and establish police regulations.”[^[176]] In these police agents, ostensibly to be employed by the Company, one may discern the origin of the famous “railway guards,” later called the “frontier guards,” whose existence has become an important problem since 1902 in connection with the Russian evacuation of Manchuria. It should also be noted that this provision concerning the police agents does not appear in the corresponding Article in the text of the Agreement between China and the Bank, upon which the Statutes were based, so that one is at a loss to know what was the conventional ground for this Russian law, unless, indeed, it was the so-called Cassini Convention, which was alleged to have provided for the organization of Russian infantry and cavalry battalions in order to protect Russian interests in the more remote parts of Manchuria.

It was agreed that the line should, after eighty years, come under the possession of the Chinese Government, which might also buy up the road and its appurtenances after thirty-six years.[^[177]] It is interesting to see that it also provided that during the eighty years of Russian management, all commodities carried between China and Russia by the railway should pay in China duties one third less than the ordinary import and export duties in that Empire,[^[178]] a provision hardly reconcilable with the open door principle, and explicitly contrary to the principles proposed by the United States to the Powers two years later.[^[179]]

The Eastern Chinese Railway Company was organized in February, 1897, and the first sod of the Manchuria Railway was cut with great ceremony on the eastern frontier of the Kirin Province on August 28, 1897.

To some this railway concession may have appeared at first to have been intended merely to reduce the time and expense of completing the eastern section of the Siberian Railway by allowing it to pass across Manchuria through a route shorter and easier than the one along the Amur and Ussuri rivers. Such a belief was, however, soon dispelled, or rather, modified, by the acquisition by Russia of the lease of the greatest naval harbor in the Yellow Sea, and, simultaneously, of the right to join this naval basis by a new railway with the main Manchurian line, so as to make complete the connection between Port Arthur and the army centres in Siberia and Russia. The Russian lease of this port was, however, preceded by and modeled after the German lease of Kiao-chau, which should therefore receive our brief attention first.

CHAPTER III
KIAO-CHAU

Kiao-chau, in the Province of Shan-tung, was, as will be remembered, a port marked in the so-called Cassini Convention for the use of the Russian squadron. Its value as a commercial and strategical point d’appui, as well as the greatness of the mineral wealth of Shan-tung, must have been as well known to the Germans as to the Russians.[^[180]] How it happened that Russia forsook this important position, or, more accurately, how Germany succeeded in securing its lease without a protest from Russia, still remains to be explained. It is known, however, that the offers which had been made by China, perhaps in recognition of Germany’s service in the Liao-tung affair,[^[181]] of a docking and coaling station on the southern coast, had been declined by Germany;[^[182]] and also that Germany’s own attempts to secure a point on the Lappa Island near Amoy, and later in Amoy itself, had never materialized. As to Kiao-chau; the desire of Germany for its possession had henceforth been often observed by the Chinese Minister at Berlin,[^[183]] but, for the realization of the desire, either the time was not ripe, or the susceptibilities of Russia had to be considered. Toward the latter half of 1897, however, the German Government seemed to have concluded that a general partition of China was now a likelihood, for which emergency Germany should prepare herself by obtaining a powerful foothold on the littoral. Observe the following statement made, in a retroactive manner, after the lease of Kiao-chau had been acquired, by Herr von Bülow in the Reichstag, on April 27, 1898: “Mention has been made of the partition of China. Such a partition will not be brought about by us, at any rate. All we have done is to provide that, come what may, we ourselves shall not go empty-handed. The traveller cannot decide when the train is to start, but he can make sure not to miss it when it does start. The devil takes the hindmost.... In any case, we have secured in Kiao-chau a strategical and political position which assures us a decisive influence in the future of the Far East. From this strong position we can look on with complacency on the development of affairs. We have such a large sphere of action and such important tasks before us that we have no occasion to grudge other nations the concessions made them. German diplomacy will pursue its path in the East as everywhere else—calmly, firmly, and peacefully. We will never play the part of mischief-maker; nor will we play that of Cinderella.”[^[184]] Before this glorious consummation was reached, Germany must have, it is presumed, made diplomatic efforts to conciliate Russia, and it is in this connection that it is alleged by some that the two Powers then matured between themselves a compromise whereby Germany should not be molested in her possible attempt to seize Kiao-chau at the first opportunity, and Russia, in her turn, should be free to follow the precedent and demand of China a lease of Port Arthur.[^[185]]

However that may be, an opportunity for Germany’s action came when, as is well known, two German Catholic priests were murdered by a mob in the Kü-ye District, in Shan-tung, on November 1, 1897. The late Provincial Governor, Li Ping-hing, who had recently been transferred to Sz-chwan, was suspected of having instigated the crime. The Peking Government at once ordered a strict search for the culprits, and in three weeks the local authorities succeeded in arresting four of the guilty persons.[^[186]] It was too late. Three German men-of-war had arrived at Kiao-chau, about November 17, to be joined later by several others, and landed 600 marines, who seized the Chinese barracks of the port.[^[187]] As the Tsung-li Yamên had received no previous communication from the German authorities regarding the demonstration, it “could only surmise that Kiao-chau had been seized on account of the murder of the German missionaries.”[^[188]] The German Minister at Peking, Baron von Heyking, then presented six demands, including the punishment of the late Governor Li, an indemnity for the murdered, and the preference for German capital and engineers in the future railway and mining enterprises in the Province of Shan-tung—the desire for the lease of Kiao-chau being still veiled,—and these demands were, with some modifications, accepted by China. At this time, however, Prince Henry of Germany, whom the Kaiser had bade farewell at Kiel in his celebrated “mailed fist” speech, was on his way to China with his squadron. As soon as he arrived, Baron von Heyking presented the long concealed demand for a lease of the bay and the surrounding promontories of Kiao-chau. In the face of the strong position and forces commanded by Germany, China had no choice but to yield.[^[189]] When she was finally, on March 6, 1898, prevailed upon to sign the Agreement with Germany, the Government of the latter declined to publish anything but its first section containing the use and lease of Kiao-chau,[^[190]] and the contents of its other two sections concerning the railway and mining privileges granted to Germany[^[191]] in the Shan-tung Province, as well as a separate agreement concerning the direct reparation for the crime of Kü-ye, have not, so far as is known, been officially given to the world from Berlin.[^[192]]

The act of Germany was a débâcle, and in the concessions she wrested from China were involved questions of grave importance and far-reaching consequences. In the first place, was not the lease of a commanding port in reality an infringement of the territorial sovereignty of the Chinese Empire? In the second place, how could the preference given to Germany in the future railway and mining operations in one of the richest of the eighteen Provinces be reconciled with the principle of the equal opportunity for the economic enterprise of all nations in China? If the action of Germany could be, as it soon seemed to be, used by other Powers as a precedent, would not the consequences for the cause, to say the least, of the fair treatment and mutual harmony in China of the nations among themselves be disastrous? It is interesting to observe the attitude taken toward this incident by Great Britain, the Power which possessed the greatest interest in insisting upon, as well as strongest power to enforce, the two cardinal principles of the world’s diplomacy in China, namely, the territorial sovereignty of the Chinese Empire and the equality therein of economic opportunity for all nations. Official dispatches of the day clearly indicate that, on the one hand, Germany made efforts to allay the susceptibilities of Great Britain, and that, on the other, the British remonstrances were not only so mollified as to be ineffective, but were also turned in such a direction as only to add to the dangers of the situation. Let us observe how this was done. It was repeatedly declared, during the negotiations between Germany and China, by the German Representatives at Peking and London and by Herr von Bülow himself, that the northern port of Kiao-chau had been chosen for its remoteness, for one thing, from the regions in which England was directly interested; that nothing was being done during the negotiations with China which would be embarrassing to Great Britain; that Germany was raising no objections to the British terms of the Anglo-German loan to China now under consideration; that the management of the new colony would be found to be liberal, for the German Government was convinced that the British system of colonization was the right one; and that the Kaiser and his Government were strong partisans of a good understanding between Germany and England.[^[193]] Beside these assurances from Germany, it is interesting to note that, on December 1, 1897, Sir Claude MacDonald wrote from Peking to the Marquess of Salisbury: “If the German occupation of Kiao-chau is only used as a leverage for obtaining satisfactory reparation ... for the murder of the German missionaries, the effect on the security of our own people will be of the best. If, on the other hand, the German object is to secure Kiao-chau as a naval station, under cover of their demands for reparation, it is by no means clear that their acquisition of it will prejudice our interests.”[^[194]] Whether or not this idea was indorsed by the British Government, Sir Frank C. Lascelles, the Representative at Berlin, said to Herr von Bülow, on December 30, “That, so far as he knew, Her Majesty’s Government had raised no objection to the German ships going to Kaio-chau. Should, however, a demand be put forward for exclusive privileges, or should other countries seek to take possession of Chinese ports, it would probably become necessary for Her Majesty’s Government to take steps for the protection of her vast interests in China.”[^[195]] In this last sentence is seen a curse of China’s foreign relations, that is, the idea of the balance of power—a balance between foreign nations on her ground and at her expense. An offending Power would not retrace its steps, and another Power would virtually recognize them by itself demanding counterbalancing rights from China, which might expect other Powers also to follow suit with little regard to her primary rights of sovereignty. Germany could scarcely have felt the force of the British protest which was, indeed, rather directed to China than to Germany. The latter secured what she asked, and made Kiao-chau as free a port as her treaty-tariff system would allow;[^[196]] but German claims to the sole right of railroad and mining concessions in the province were speedily emphasized by the organization of the Schan-tung Eisenbahngesellschaft, with a capital of fifty-four million marks, and also of the Deutsche Bergbaugesellschaft.[^[197]]

CHAPTER IV
PORT ARTHUR AND TALIEN-WAN

As has been said, it appears impossible at the present state of our knowledge to trace the exact connection of Russia with the German occupation of Kiao-chau.[^[198]] What is of more direct interest to our study, and is more easily established by evidence, is the fact that, with the plea that she could not be denied what had been granted to Germany,[^[199]] Russia closely followed the latter’s example,[^[200]] and, under similar terms to hers,[^[201]] demanded a lease of Port Arthur and Talien-wan, and also a railway concession between a point in the Manchurian line granted in 1896 and the ports. Recent years have seldom seen a situation so instructive of the character of the Far Eastern diplomacy in general, and of Russia’s method in particular, as the foreign relations in China which culminated in the conclusion of the Russo-Chinese Agreement of March 27, 1898. These relations were also unusually complex, owing to the position which England held therein, whose vast interests in various parts of China were at once brought in many-sided contact, not only with Russia, but also with other Powers interested in China.

On December 20, 1897, a report reached the British Foreign Office that three Russian men-of-war had arrived at Port Arthur, and that three others were expected at Talien-wan and three more at Port Arthur.[^[202]] Two days later it was officially explained by Count Muravieff “that the step taken was entirely a question of convenience for the ships, and had absolutely no connection with the occupation of the bay of Kiao-chau by Germany.” The Count added “that there had always been a difficulty about keeping more than a certain number of men-of-war at a time in Japanese ports, and that, consequently, the Imperial Government had been glad to accept the offer of the Chinese Government to allow the Russian squadron to winter at Port Arthur. This arrangement was all the more convenient as that port was within an easy distance of Vladivostok, and had an arsenal where their ships could undergo all necessary repairs. Moreover, it was an advantage that Port Arthur was quite free from ice in the winter, though this fact was not so important now, as Vladivostok was at present furnished with an exceptionally powerful ice-breaker, which it was hoped would make that port available for egress and ingress during the winter months. In fact, Vladivostok remained, as heretofore, their centre in the Far East, and the headquarters of their land and sea forces, so that the mere fact of the Russian squadron wintering at Port Arthur made no change whatever in the situation.”[^[203]] On the same day that this pacific declaration was made, it was reported, as it was later confirmed by Chinese authorities, that Russia was offering to China a 4 per cent. loan of 16,000,000 pounds at 93, an extremely favorable term, to pay off the balance of the Japanese indemnity. The suggested security was the income of the land tax and likin, besides which Russia was said to have demanded as quid pro quo all future railway concessions in Manchuria and North China, as well as the succession of a Russian subject to Sir Robert Hart as Inspector-General of the Maritime Customs.[^[204]] It was on this occasion that M. Pavloff, claiming that the Tsung-li Yamên had promised to employ Russian engineers and Russian capital in the construction of any railway between the Great Wall and the Russian frontier, undertook to record the alleged promise and express his gratification, and, seeing that the Yamên did not reply, took it for granted that the matter was settled, and notified the St. Petersburg Government to that effect.[^[205]] Nor did the Russian Representatives at Peking fail thereafter to appeal to this agreement concluded by M. Pavloff in so striking a fashion, whenever China opened any discussion with another Power regarding any subject connected with railways north of Shan-hai-kwan. In the mean time, an Anglo-German syndicate had made an offer, last June, of a loan for the same purpose, and now Sir Claude MacDonald strongly supported a scheme of a new loan presented by the Hong-kong and Shanghai Bank, a British concern, in competition with the Russian proposals.[^[206]] One of the terms of the British loan as matured between the Bank, Sir Claude, and the Marquess of Salisbury, was the opening of Talien-wan to foreign trade.[^[207]] The British Minister’s intention obviously was, among other things, to forestall the possible Russian occupation of this port as well as Port Arthur.[^[208]] The significance was well understood by the Tsung-li Yamên, which was, however, afraid to embroil China with Russia, for the latter’s Chargé d’Affaires “had protested, under instructions from his Government, against its [Talien-wan’s] opening in the strongest manner, and had warned the Yamên that it would incur the hostility of Russia by doing so.”[^[209]] The reason for this strenuous opposition was, on January 19, 1898, explained by the Russian Ambassador at London, who “urged very strongly that if we [the British Government] insisted on making Talien-wan an open port, we should be encroaching on the Russian sphere of influence, and denying her in the future that right to the use of Port Arthur to which the progress of events had given her a claim.” These remarks were significant in showing how foreign was the idea of the open door to the Russian policy in Manchuria. When Lord Salisbury asked the Ambassador, in the same interview, what possible objection he could have to making Talien-wan a free port if Russia had no designs on that territory, the latter replied “that without any such designs it was generally admitted that Russia might claim a commercial débouché upon the open sea, and that in order to enjoy that advantage fully she ought to be at liberty to make such arrangements with China as she could obtain with respect to the commercial régime which was to prevail there.” Here is a clear indication that Russia had little faith in the compatibility of other nations’ commercial welfare in China with her own, or, in other words, in the ability of her people and the efficiency of their economic organization to compete with other nations in an open market. Else, she would not object to the opening of a port to the world’s trade. Lord Salisbury reminded the Russian Representative that “the most-favored-nation clause forbade China to give Russia at Talien-wan more favorable terms with regard to customs duties than she gave to other treaty Powers.”[^[210]] England’s position, which was repeatedly shown to Russia, was that it was natural that Russia should open a port for her commerce on the coasts of the North Pacific,[^[211]] but that it would be a contravention of the treaty rights[^[212]] of other nations to make of the port an exclusive market for Russian trade. Under these persistent representations, Count Muravieff at last declared, on January 28, through M. de Staal, Ambassador at London, that any (tout)[^[213]] commercial outlet secured by Russia “would be open to the ships of all the great Powers, like other ports on the Chinese mainland. It would be open to the commerce of all the world, and England, whose trade interests are so important in those regions, would share in the advantage.”[^[214]] Then what was meant by “open”? M. de Staal stated on February 10: “I cannot in any way anticipate the decisions of my Government, which, in the event of acquiring an outlet in Chinese waters, naturally remains free either to establish a porto franco [i. e., a port where goods imported are exempt from all import dues] there, or to assimilate the port in question to the treaty ports of the Chinese littoral.”[^[215]] It will be seen later that, through the Imperial Order of July 30 (August 11), 1899,[^[216]] Russia declared Dalny a “free port” in the sense of a porto franco, under certain conditions. In the face of these elastic conditions, one would be slow, in spite of the Order, to admit that the question stated by M. de Staal in the quoted passage has been definitively settled by his government one way or the other, or in a third alternative.[^[217]]

Up to this point, namely, about February 10, 1898, one can follow the gradual withdrawal of Lord Salisbury’s position. He at first seemed to have accepted Sir Claude MacDonald’s suggestion to insist upon the opening of Talien-wan as a condition of the British-Chinese loan, but, evidently at the Russian opposition, presently contented himself with giving the following instruction to the British Minister at Peking: “You are not bound to insist on making Talien-wan a treaty port if you think it impracticable, though we give it up with regret. Would it be possible to obtain a promise of such a concession if ever a railway was made to that port? You should maintain demand for opening of other ports.”[^[218]] Then, when the Chinese Government was so pressed by the opposition of Russia and France as to declare on January 30 that unless England pledged herself to offer protection to China against Russia, she could not consent to accept the loan,[^[219]] Lord Salisbury’s policy receded further than before. He now made representations to Russia not to infringe the most-favored-nation treatment in Talien-wan, if she should lease the port. It is needless to say that such a direct request to Russia was tantamount, on the part of England, to abandoning the desire of securing the opening of the port from China, which, save for Russian threats, was willing to comply with the desire; and to acquiescing in and even recognizing Russia’s right to lease the port, instead of opening it as a treaty port. Under these circumstances, it was not strange that the British Government was met by Russia with the ambiguous phrase, “open port,” which, in spite of Lord Salisbury’s attempt[^[220]] to interpret it in the sense of a porto franco, was found, in M. de Staal’s statement of February 10, already quoted, to be still more uncertain than it appeared when it was first declared. Russia seemed to have gained all that England lost, but it was a mere prelude to a far more serious situation which was still to develop.

It would have been plain to any one, had he been susceptible to certain unmistakable signs, that Russia’s desires in Manchuria were more extensive than the mere acquisition of a lease of a commercial outlet on the Yellow Sea. The same Count Muravieff, who had said three weeks before that the presence of Russian ships at Port Arthur late in 1897 was purely for the sake of wintering there, and that the fact that Port Arthur was ice-free was not very important, now declared, on January 12, 1898, that when the Russian fleet had left the port, after wintering there, the Chinese Government had given the Russians a prior right of anchorage—le droit du premier mouillage.[^[221]] The question so gently broached was more clearly pronounced a week later, when M. de Staal strongly maintained that the opening of Talien-wan would result in an encroachment upon the Russian sphere of influence, and in “denying her in the future that right to the use of Port Arthur to which the progress of events had given her a claim.”[^[222]] In the face of these official remarks, it would be impossible to deny that Russia wished to use, not only Talien-wan, but also Port Arthur, and the latter for purposes clearly other than commercial. Yet the British Government does not seem to have taken any action in the matter, but, on the contrary, its tacit recognition of Russia’s demand of the lease of Talien-wan was not of a nature to discourage her design upon Port Arthur. On February 14, China made concessions to Great Britain regarding internal navigation, the non-alienation of the Yang-tsze Provinces, and the appointment of an Englishman to the inspectorate-general of customs so long as the British trade was preponderant in China;[^[223]] on the 19th, the preliminary agreement of the British loan was signed;[^[224]] and March 6 saw the conclusion of the German agreement concerning the lease of Kiao-chau and privileges in the Province of Shan-tung. Russia immediately seized this opportunity in bringing forward her long cherished design, for, on March 7, it was simultaneously reported in the London Times and by Sir Claude MacDonald, soon to be confirmed by the Tsungli-Yamên and admitted by Count Muravieff, that M. Pavloff was pressing the Peking Government to grant the lease of Port Arthur and Talien-wan and the railway concession from Petuna on the trans-Manchurian Railway to the ports.[^[225]] The report appears to have made a profound impression upon the British Government, which, on the day it was received, was compelled to say that, if the Russian demands were granted, “her influence over the Government of Peking would be so increased, to the detriment of that of Her Majesty’s Government, that it seemed desirable for them to make some counter-move. The best plan would perhaps be, on the cession of Wei-hai-Wei by the Japanese [who had been holding it, according to the treaty, pending the final payment of Chinese indemnity], to insist on the refusal of a lease of that port on terms similar to those granted to Germany.”[^[226]] This view was sounded, it is true, to the British Minister at Peking, and not to the Russian Government, but the latter was not to encounter an effective protest from a government which had so soon made up its mind that the protest might fail and be compensated by itself reproducing the evil at China’s expense.[^[227]] At any rate, Count Muravieff deemed it now safe to declare, beginning with March 8, that no alternative had been left to Russia, under the uncertainty attending the development of affairs in the Far East and other circumstances, but to demand a cession both of Talien-wan and Port Arthur, the former only to be opened to foreign trade; that one of these ports without the other would be of no use to Russia, while the use of both was of vital necessity to her; and that the lease would not interfere with the sovereign rights of the Chinese Empire. To the last pledge was added, probably at the persistent representations of England, that the treaty rights acquired by the Powers in China would be respected.[^[228]]

The distinction made by Count Muravieff between Port Arthur and Talien-wan at once brought home to the British Government the gravity of the situation. The first impulse on the part of Lord Salisbury was to fall back upon M. de Staal’s statement of February 10, that any (tout) port which Russia might acquire on the Chinese coast should be open to the foreign trade.[^[229]] Count Muravieff, however, explained that the statement applied only to Talien-wan, but no promise had been made regarding Port Arthur.[^[230]] On March 15, however, he was authorized by the Czar to give to Sir N. O’Conor “an assurance that both Port Arthur and Talien-wan would be open to foreign trade, like other Chinese ports, in the event of the Russian Government’s obtaining a lease of these places from the Chinese Government.” The Count intimated next morning that it would be desirable for the British Government not to repeat this assurance in the House of Commons, for “it might be considered as a want of courtesy toward the Chinese Government, who had not yet formally agreed to give the Russian Government a lease of the ports in question.”[^[231]]

Presently, however, the British Government awoke to the conviction that Port Arthur was “not a commercial harbor,” and “it was doubtful whether it could be converted into one.” “But,” stated the Marquess of Salisbury, “though not a commercial harbor, Port Arthur supplies a naval base, limited indeed in extent, but possessing great natural and artificial strength. And this, taken in connection with its strategic position, gives it an importance in the Gulf of Pechili and therefore at Peking, upon which, in their representation to Japan at the close of the war with China, the Russian Government laid the greatest emphasis.... The possession, even if temporary, of this particular position, is likely to have political consequences at Peking of great international importance, and the acquisition of a Chinese harbor notoriously useless for commercial purposes by a foreign Power will be universally interpreted in the Far East as indicating that the partition of China has begun.... It may, perhaps, be proper to observe that a great military Power which is conterminous for over four thousand miles with the land frontier of China, including the portion lying nearest to its capital, is never likely to be without its due share of influence on the councils of that country. Her Majesty’s Government regard it as most unfortunate that it has been thought necessary, in addition, to obtain control of a port which, if the rest of the Gulf of Pechili remains in hands so helpless as that of the sovereign Power, will command the maritime approaches to its capital, and give to Russia the same strategic advantage by sea which she already possesses in so ample a measure by land.”[^[232]] In this spirit, the British Government asked Count Muravieff through Sir N. O’Conor, on March 23, to reconsider the advisability of pressing demands upon China in regard to Port Arthur. England would not object to the Russian lease of an ice-free commercial harbor connected by rail with the trans-Siberian Railway, but questions of an entirely different kind were opened if Russia obtained control of a military port in the neighborhood of Peking. England, on her part, was prepared to give assurances that beyond the maintenance of the existing treaty rights she had no interests in Manchuria, and to pledge herself not to occupy any port in the Gulf of Pechili as long as other Powers maintained the same policy.[^[233]] To this protest, so plainly attended by a second wish of Great Britain to make a counter-move when the prime move of Russia could not be checked, Count Muravieff made, on March 23, a firm reply, refusing absolutely to admit that the integrity of the Chinese Empire was violated by the proposed lease of Port Arthur, and repeating his assertion that the possession of that harbor was a question of vital necessity to Russia. Sir N. O’Conor confessed the futility of his protest.[^[234]] About the same day, M. Pavloff informed the Peking Government that Russia could not consider the question of Port Arthur and Talien-wan apart, and insisted upon their lease before the 27th, failing which, Russia would take hostile measures.[^[235]] Now England definitely resolved, on March 25, to obtain speedily the lease of Wei-hai-Wei in terms similar to those granted to Russia for Port Arthur, and ordered the British fleet to proceed from Hong-kong to the Gulf of Pechili,[^[236]] and, three days later, notified the Russian Government that she would retain her entire liberty of action to take steps to protect her interests, and to diminish the evil consequences which she anticipated.[^[237]] On the preceding day, however, a Russo-Chinese Agreement had been signed, incorporating all the points upon which Russia had insisted and against which England had vainly protested. Count Muravieff at once briefly announced to the Powers the successful conclusion of the Agreement;[^[238]] and, when the British Government called upon him to fulfill his promise to give a written assurance of Russia’s declared intention to respect the sovereign rights of China and the treaty privileges of the other Powers in the leased territory, he calmly replied that what was interpreted as promises was in fact “very confidentially” expressed views, and that “the time was not opportune” for making the assurances public. Russia would not, he added, so “abuse the lease granted by a friendly Power” as “to arbitrarily transform a closed and principally military port into a commercial port like any other.”[^[239]] The triumph of Russia was tardily followed, on April 3, by the promise England secured from China to lease Wei-hai-Wei to her for the same period as Port Arthur,[^[240]] thus again substituting for an effective prevention of evils the “balance”[^[241]] and retaliation between the Powers at the expense of China.[^[242]]

In this connection, it may be noted that the Russian Government considered, according to Count Muravieff, “that China owed them this [the lease of the ports] for the services they had rendered her in her war with Japan, and these services must be properly requited.”[^[243]] It was no matter of surprise to Japan that Russia now secured for herself the most strategic portion of the territory, the retention of which by Japan was, three years ago, declared by the same Power to be imperiling the position of Peking, rendering Korean independence nominal, and interfering with the permanent peace of the Far East. When it was announced by Russia, in December last, that Port Arthur had been lent to her by China only temporarily as a winter anchorage, the Japanese Government merely “credited this assurance, and accordingly took note of it.”[^[244]] When the negotiations for the lease were in progress, the Japanese Government made no protest, and when they were consummated, it manifested no appreciable sentiment. At the same time, it quietly approved of the British lease of Wei-hai-Wei,[^[245]] which the Japanese troops had still held pending the final payment of the Chinese indemnity. Then they speedily evacuated the port in favor of England, leaving behind them every accommodation to the successor.[^[246]]

The Agreement concluded, on March 15/27, 1898, between Li Hung-chang and the Russian Chargé, M. Pavloff, has never been published by the Russian Government, and the only sources to which we can turn are an English translation of a Chinese précis forwarded by Sir Claude MacDonald more than a month after the conclusion of the Agreement,[^[247]] and the Chinese text that appears in the Tō-A Kwankei Tokushu Jōyaku Isan.[^[248]] Port Arthur and Talien-wan, with their adjacent waters, were leased to Russia for twenty-five years, subject to renewal by mutual agreement, the lease not affecting the sovereign rights of China (Articles 1 and 3); within the leased territory, Chinese citizens might continue to live, but no Chinese troops should be stationed, and the responsibility of military affairs should be vested in one Russian officer, who should not bear the Chinese title of governor-general or governor (Article 4); Port Arthur would be a naval port open only to the Russian and Chinese men-of-war, but closed against the commercial and naval ships of other nations, while Talien-wan, except the portion used exclusively for naval purposes, would be a trading port open freely to the merchant vessels of all nations (Article 6); the Russians would be allowed to build forts and barracks, and provide defenses (Article 7); there should be a neutral territory to the north of the leased ground, which would be administered by Chinese officials, but into which no Chinese troops should be sent without consulting the Russian authorities (Article 5); the railway contract of 1896 might be extended so as to cover a branch line to Talien-wan and, if necessary, another line between Niu-chwang and the Yalu, but the construction of the railways should not be made a ground for securing territory (Article 8). Sir Claude Macdonald presented also, on June 14, what he believed to be an authentic version of the Special Russo-Chinese Agreement concluded on April 25 (May 7), 1898, to supplement the Agreement of March 15.[^[249]] It defined the extent of the leased territory, and of the neutral territory to the north of the former (Articles 1 and 2).[^[250]] Within the latter, it was agreed, no ports should be open to the trade of other nations, and no economic concessions made to them, without Russian consent (Article 5). At Kin-chow, the administration and police were to be Chinese, but the military, Russian (Article 4). Regarding railways, it was provided that Port Arthur and Talien-wan should be the termini of the conceded line, along which no railway privileges should be given to other nations. Russia would, however, have nothing to say if China herself should undertake to construct a railway from Shan-hai-kwan to a point near the Russian line (Article 3).

These agreements were accompanied by some characteristically pacific and magnanimous utterances by the Czar, professing his firm friendship with China, extolling the wise decision of the Son of Heaven in granting the lease, and emphasizing that the direct communication by means of the great Siberian Railway with the hitherto closed-up country would largely contribute to the peaceful intercourse of the peoples of the East and West, to which task Russia was called by Divine Providence.[^[251]]

The leased territory was named Kwan-tung[^[252]] by the Russians, and the Provisional Regulations for its administration were published at St. Petersburg through the Bulletin des Lois of August 20 (September 1), 1899.[^[253]] By these regulations, the Kwan-tung region was placed under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of War, with its chief seat of administration at Port Arthur (Articles 4 and 6). The Administration was headed by a Governor, appointed and removed at the immediate will of the Czar, who was also Commander-in-Chief of the army forces of the territory and entered into immediate communication with the commander of the cis-Amur region, and in addition commanded the navy at Port Arthur and Vladivostok; the latter port, however, retained its Commander of the port, who was subservient to the Governor (Articles 3, 7, 12, 13, and 14). In matters concerning frontier and foreign relations, the Governor directly communicated with the Russian Representatives at Peking, Tokio, and Seul, and with the Russian military and naval agents (Article 22). At the creation on August 13, 1903, of a Vice-regency in this region, which will receive attention later, it became necessary to make some changes in the administrative rules, which had not been completed at the outbreak of the present war.

Talien-wan being mainly open to foreign trade, its organization and administration were set on a separate basis from the rest of the Kwan-tung. At the instance of M. Witte, then the Minister of Finance, an Imperial Order was promulgated on July 30 (August 11), 1899, ordering that near Talien-wan a new town named Dalny should be built, which was simultaneously declared a free port under the following conditions, namely, that the importation and exportation of merchandise should be allowed free of customs dues in Dalny within the limits determined, and liable to modification, by the Minister of Finance; but that goods imported into Russia from Dalny should pay the regular import duties in force in the Russian Empire.[^[254]] By the Provisional Regulations already referred to of August 20 (September 1) of the same year, the organization of Dalny was assigned to the Eastern Chinese Railway Company, under the chief direction of the Minister of Finance, and its administration was intrusted to a Prefect, to be appointed and dismissed by Imperial orders and subordinate to the Governor of the Kwan-tung (Articles 99 and 101).[^[255]] It is already well known that Dalny, now covering about 100 square versts in area, was, according to M. Witte’s plan, intended to be the commercial terminus of the great Siberian Railway, and eventually the mercantile outlet on the Pacific of the vast Russian Empire. Before the war, the works at Dalny, including its large docks and piers, had cost already nearly 20,000,000 rubles. Part of this immense expenditure was to have been met by the income of the public sales at auction of land-lots, held three times since 1902, in spite of the fact that the twenty-five year lease of the territory to Russia would hardly justify her in alienating portions of it permanently.[^[256]]

CHAPTER V
SECRETARY HAY’S CIRCULAR NOTE

It is unnecessary for us to describe how, between 1897 and 1899, other so-called spheres of influence and of economic concessions than those already mentioned were marked out in China by the Powers, for, important as they are in the general history of the modern East, they have little bearing upon our immediate subject. It suffices to recall that the process was begun by the German seizure of Kiao-chau; that unfortunately Great Britain felt obliged to have recourse to the policy of the balance of power; and that no other “sphere” had the grave significance and the evil forebodings of the Russian territory of the Kwan-tung in Manchuria. It was during this period that a Power whose position was so unique as to justify the act appealed to the other interested Powers, in September, 1899, to make declarations that they would observe the principle of the equal economic opportunity for all nations in their respective spheres of interest in China. The principle thus proposed by the United States was stated to imply (1) non-interference with the treaty rights and vested interests of each other; (2) the maintenance of the Chinese treaty tariff, except in “free ports,” under the Chinese management; and (3) no differential treatment in the harbor duties and railway charges, in the spheres. The phrase “leased territory” was used in connection with only the first of these three points, while the words “spheres of interest” were applied to all three, so that it was uncertain whether the second and third points were intended by Secretary Hay to cover the leases, as well as the spheres.[^[257]] In reply to this proposition, Great Britain, which had stronger reason than the United States to indorse a policy which had originated with her and which she had long upheld in China at enormous cost, and Japan expressed their unequivocal adherence to the proposed principle. Germany, France, and Italy also assented, all except Italy, however, with the natural reservation that the desired declarations would be made if all other interested Powers acted likewise.[^[258]] As regards the question whether the three points applied to the leases and spheres alike, it is interesting to note that Germany, France, and Great Britain replied, in effect, in the affirmative, Germany using the expression “its Chinese possessions,” and France employing the phrase “the territories which were leased to her.” The statement used by Great Britain was the most explicit and comprehensive, for she mentioned “the leased territory of Wei-hai-Wei and all territory in China which may hereafter be acquired by Great Britain, by lease or otherwise, and all ‘spheres of interest’ now held, or that may hereafter be held in China.” Beside these assurances, the Russian assent was highly significant, which, with the reservation similar to that of the other Powers, stated: “As to the ports now opened, or hereafter to be opened, to foreign commerce by the Chinese Government,[^[259]] and which lie beyond the leased territory to Russia, the settlement of the question of customs duties belongs to China herself, and the Imperial Government [of Russia] has no intention whatever of claiming any privileges for its own subjects to the exclusion of foreigners.” But “in so far as the territory leased by China to Russia is concerned, the Imperial Government [of Russia] has already demonstrated its firm intention to follow the policy of the ‘open door’ by creating Dalny (Talien-wan) a free port; and if at some future time that port, although remaining free itself, should be separated by a custom-limit from other portions of the territory in question, the customs duties would be levied, in the zone subject to the tariff, upon all foreign merchants without distinction as to nationality. With the conviction,” the Russian note concluded, “that this reply is such as to ratify the inquiry made in the aforementioned note [of the United States], the Imperial Government is happy to have complied with the wishes of the American Government, especially as it attaches the highest value to anything that may strengthen and consolidate the traditional relations of friendship existing between the two countries.”[^[260]] On the strength of the various replies from the Powers, however, the United States Government considered that “the Declaration suggested by the United States on that subject [i. e., the proposals about the Chinese trade] had been accepted by those Powers,” and regarded the assent given by them “as final and definite.”[^[261]] It is interesting to note that no Power made a formal declaration[^[262]] suggested by Secretary Hay, who, however, seems to have deemed the replies with reservations as equivalent to such a declaration. It is problematical whether this exchange of notes did in the slightest degree have the effect of changing the actual situation, at least so far as Russia was concerned.

CHAPTER VI
THE OCCUPATION OF MANCHURIA

We have given only an incomplete account of the manner in which certain Powers seemed, during the years 1897 and 1898, to vie with one another in transgressing, in effect, the principle of the territorial integrity of the Chinese Empire, to which they at the same time professed their adherence. Another principle, however,—that of the open door, or of the equal opportunity in China for the commercial and industrial enterprise of all nations,—was, as we have seen, not as openly ignored even by the most aggressive Powers. The time arrived, in 1900, when the observance of both principles appeared to be the only safeguard against a general partition of China and an internal revolution through the length and breadth of the vast Empire. The story of the Boxer trouble is too fresh in every one’s memory to need to be retold. It was during this insurrection, and during the march of the allied forces toward Peking and the long negotiations which followed it, that all the Powers concerned repeatedly and unequivocally pledged themselves to one another to maintain the two cardinal principles of Chinese diplomacy. It now belongs to us to relate, however, that it was in the midst of this reiterated promise of fair play that the most acute stage of the Manchurian question was reached. Evidence is abundant to show that Russia was inclined greatly to underestimate the seriousness of the troubles in North China, where a concerted action of all the interested Powers was imperative, while in Manchuria, which Russia had for years regarded as her sphere of influence,[^[263]] she carried forward aggressive measures with great rapidity and on an enormous scale. Thus, even so late as June 20, when the railway communication of Peking with Tientsin had been cut for three weeks;[^[264]] when Prince Tuan and his anti-foreign counselors swayed the Court, and the Tsung-li Yamên had long proved utterly impotent to cope with the situation;[^[265]] when the 6000 Chinese soldiers sent against the Boxers around Tientsin betrayed themselves into inaction;[^[266]] when the international relief corps of marines led by Admiral Seymour had already been forced backward;[^[267]] when the Boxers had at last poured into Peking[^[268]] and held the foreigners in siege for a week, killing many Chinese as well as the Japanese Chancellor Sugiyama;[^[269]] and when the Taku forts had been taken by the allied squadron,[^[270]] only to infuriate the anti-foreign sentiment all over North China;[^[271]] when no news had been received by him even from Tientsin and Taku for the past four days,[^[272]] and after he had dispatched 4000 Russian soldiers for the disposal of M. de Giers at Peking,[^[273]]—Count Muravieff still held an optimistic view, and supposed that the trouble would be over within two weeks, saying that Middle and South China were under a greater peril than the North.[^[274]] This last assertion, which he made more than once,[^[275]] is significant when we consider that Middle and South China included regions where British interests were predominant. Although Russia persistently declared her firm intention to act in concert with other Powers in North China, it is not altogether impossible to suppose, as it has been alleged, that she was not unwilling to divert the attention of Great Britain and others from North China, where Russia would not have hesitated, if possible, to render her sole assistance to China to suppress the insurrection. At least, Russia declared it to be one of her objects in China to “assist the Chinese Government in the work of reëstablishing order so necessary in the primary interest of China herself;”[^[276]] at least, the pro-Russian Li Hung-chang expressed, on June 22, an otherwise inexplicable confidence in his ability to restore peace.[^[277]] The real siege and firing of the Peking Legations had begun two days before, on June 20, the day when Count Muravieff uttered his optimistic remarks at St. Petersburg. The latter died the next day, and was succeeded in the Foreign Ministry by Count Lamsdorff. On June 26, the Russian Government ordered the mobilization into Manchuria of six large corps of troops from Hailar, Blagovestchensk and Habarofsk, Vladivostok and Possiet, and European Russia.[^[278]] One estimate put the number of the Russian soldiers who had arrived in Manchuria by August at 30,000.[^[279]] It is not easy to determine whether Russia took the offensive in the great Manchurian campaign which now began, or whether hostile acts of the Chinese precipitated it, but it seems safe to say that rumors of impending dangers had been abundant before the Russian troops poured into the territory,[^[280]] and also that the dispatch of the latter apparently provoked more extensive outrages of the rioters than would otherwise have been the case. We hear of the destruction of the railway and burning of religious establishments near Liao-yang and Mukden only from the end of June and beginning of July,[^[281]] and the alleged determination of the Chinese troops to drive out all Russians from Manchuria was reported in the Russian Official Messenger toward the middle of July.[^[282]] Just at this time riots occurred in the Liao-tung and its vicinity, communication by the Amur ceased, and Blagovestchensk was suddenly bombarded by the Chinese, followed by the slaughter of thousands of Chinese inhabitants by the Russian soldiers under General Gribsky.[^[283]] Toward the south and east, the depot of Ninguta was destroyed, and several Russians were murdered at An-tung, about July 20. The Russian troops, many of whom had now arrived at different points in Manchuria, captured Hun-chun on July 27, Argun on July 30, Haibin on August 3, and Aigun and San-sin soon afterward.[^[284]] Even the treaty port of Niu-chwang had also been seized, for which conduct the British and American consular agents could not find sufficient justification. On August 5, the port was placed under the civil administration of Russian authorities, under which injustice and disorder were said to have much increased.[^[285]] It was on August 14, the day when the allied forces had almost reached Peking, that General Groderkoff in command of the northern army of the Manchurian invasion wrote to the Minister of War at St. Petersburg: “Fifty years ago Nevelskoy raised the Russian flag at the mouth of the Amur, on its right bank, and laid the foundation for our possessions on that great river. Now, after hard fighting, we have taken possession of the right bank, thus consolidating the great enterprise of annexing the whole of the Amur to Russia’s dominions, and making that river an internal waterway and not a frontier stream, whereby free and unmolested navigation of that artery through one of the vastest regions of the Empire has been secured.” Indeed, by the time when the Peking Legations were relieved, the major part of Manchuria had been reduced under a military occupation by Russia.[^[286]] This may be said to mark a new stage in the development of the Manchurian question, for no longer was this vast territory a mere sphere of Russian influence; it was a prize of conquest.[^[287]] The problem for the Government of the Czar henceforth seemed to the outside world to be not so much how it might tighten its hold upon Manchuria, as how it might convert the temporary occupation into a permanent possession.

COUNT LAMSDORFF
Russian Foreign Minister

CHAPTER VII
NORTH CHINA AND MANCHURIA

The problem stated at the close of the last chapter forms an index to a period of Eastern diplomacy the singular features of which hardly find a parallel in the world’s history. The affairs of the Extreme Orient had in general advanced to such a stage that no single Power could again seek to enforce its will without due regard to the interests of some other Powers. The Russian problem in Manchuria was, as will be seen after a little reflection, of such a nature that it could hardly be literally propounded before the world. The absorption of a vast and rich territory in China by a Power whose policy was known to be aggressive would at once arouse a determined protest of the Powers which were, from interest and from conviction, committed to the principles of the integrity of the Chinese Empire and the open door therein as the best means of insuring a lasting peace in the Far East. The Manchurian question had to be developed under a disguise until it would be, if ever, safe to cast aside the veil. Hence began Russia’s long, laborious effort to explain to the critical world certain crude facts and deeds in Manchuria in the terms of some refined foreign phrases—phrases whose significance in this particular case her rivals well knew, but which they could not repudiate so long as they themselves upheld the principles indicated by those phrases. However, the moment a complex diplomatic machinery relies upon subterfuges for its success, its ingenuity will be taxed to the utmost, or its unity will be in danger. For it will not be easy to make the entire body of diplomatic agents speak the same untruths at all places and at all times. As soon as one pretext is uncovered, another must be invented, as it were, on the spur of the moment, in order to cover the retreat from the last one—a necessary change which might render a quick readjustment of the entire organism to the newly created situation almost impossible. It would indeed have been one of the most striking feats of the government of a nation, if the artful diplomacy of Russia had been able to combat successfully to the end, with the enemy’s weapon, the straightforward statecraft of the partisans of fair play. Let us now observe in the remaining chapters of this work how this process went on, and how it finally defeated itself,—how ingenuity gave place to threats, and how diplomacy ended in war.

As has been suggested, Russia avowed that a point in her policy in China at the outbreak of the Boxer trouble was to assist the friendly Government of that Empire in suppressing the insurrection and restoring the normal order.[^[288]] When, however, in spite of Count Muravieff’s inclination to regard this matter lightly, all the Powers concerned deemed the situation grave enough to justify sending forces to the rescue of their Representatives and subjects in Peking, it became necessary for Russia to act in concert with the others, instead of alone assisting China. Russia promptly, on June 16,[^[289]] declared her intention to coöperate with the other Powers, and claimed, about a month later, to have proposed to the Powers the following “fundamental principles as their rule of conduct in relation to events in China,” which principles were agreed to by the majority of the Powers:[^[290]] (1) Harmony among the Powers; (2) the preservation of the status quo in China prior to the trouble; (3) the elimination of everything which might conduce to a partition of China; and (4) the reëstablishment by common action of the legitimate central Government at Peking, which would be able of itself to guarantee order and tranquillity in that country.[^[291]] Probably before these propositions were penned by Count Muravieff, orders had been issued by Russia to mobilize large forces into Manchuria. In this territory and in North China, events progressed rapidly in the next few weeks, and, by the middle of August, the Legations had been relieved, and the three Eastern Provinces had largely fallen into the hands of the Russians. It is essential to bear in mind this dual state of affairs, for henceforth it appeared that the best efforts of Russian diplomacy were made at once, in one sense, in reconciling to one another, and, in another sense, in insisting upon, the widely different situations of Manchuria and of North China. On the one hand, the principle of the integrity of China applied to both regions alike, but, on the other, Russia steadily declined to admit that Manchuria was within the sphere of the concerted action of the Powers. Thus, in her famous circular of August 25,[^[292]] she declared, in regard to Manchuria, where “temporary measures” of military occupation “had been solely dictated by the absolute necessity of repelling the aggression of the Chinese rebels, and not with interested motives, which are absolutely foreign to the policy of the Imperial Government,” that, as soon as peace was restored and the security of the railway was assured, “Russia would not fail to withdraw her troops from the Chinese territory, provided such action did not meet with obstacles caused by the proceedings of other Powers.”[^[293]] From these words it was evident that Russia would not allow the Manchurian question to be discussed by the Powers, for she would withdraw from it, as she had occupied it, on her own initiative, and with no interference from others. More important still was the fact that Russia, from this time on, pledged to evacuate Manchuria under the apparently reasonable conditions—of the question of the fulfillment of which, however, Russia would be the sole judge—that peace and security was restored in the territory, and that other Powers did not interfere with her intentions. As regards North China, the circular bespoke a striking action on the part of Russia. Of the two original intentions of Russia, namely, the rescue of the Russian subjects in Peking and the assistance to China to restore peace, the first had now been accomplished, but the second was hindered by the absence of the Imperial Court from the capital. In these circumstances, Russia, seeing no reason for maintaining the Legations and allied forces in Peking, would now withdraw M. de Giers and the Russian troops to Tientsin. It was explained later[^[294]] that, while the action of Russia was not a technical proposition to the other Powers, their concurrence in these measures would conduce to the return of the Court to the capital and facilitate the settlement of the affair between the allies and China. It is interesting to see that at the same time the Chinese Representative at St. Petersburg urgently begged Li Hung-chang to memorialize the Throne to the effect that an edict should be issued to show China’s severity and ability to maintain order when the European troops were withdrawn, and the intention of the Court to return shortly. The adoption of this course, it was thought, would allay the apprehensions of the allies regarding the withdrawal of their troops from Peking.[^[295]] The Russian declaration, so far as it regarded North China, in spite of her avowal that she would act strictly in concert with the other Powers, was as surprising to some of the latter as it must have been pleasing to China.[^[296]] As might be expected, the Powers, except France, doubted the practicability of so early an evacuation of Peking.[^[297]] A similar proposition by Russia, dated September 17, so far as the withdrawal of the Legations to Tientsin was concerned, came to the same result.[^[298]] Russia, on her part, actually withdrew her troops to Tientsin, but when peace negotiations were opened at Peking in October, her Minister was obliged to be present there. In the mean time, the different status in which Russia held Manchuria from North China was made evident by the vigorous prosecution of the campaign in the former. Ninguta, Kirin, and Tsitsihar fell into the Russian hands about the same time as the evacuation of Peking was announced; Liao-yang was taken late in September, and Mukden and Tieh-ling early in October. Fêng-hwang-Chêng and An-tung were captured even so late as December. On September 7, a solemn thanksgiving was held at the site of the burned town Sakhalien on the right bank of the Amur across Blagovestchensk, in which General Gribsky delivered a speech, and the high priest Konoploff was reported to have said: “Now is the cross raised on that bank of the Amur which yesterday was Chinese. Muravieff foretold that sooner or later this bank would be ours.”[^[299]]

CHAPTER VIII
THE ANGLO-GERMAN AGREEMENT

When we recall that even before 1900 Russia desired to control the railway enterprises, not only in Manchuria, but also on the right side of the Liao River, it is not altogether strange that, simultaneously with the occupation of Manchuria, the northern Chinese line was seized by her troops. This action, however, did not stop at the Great Wall. Had it not been for the protest of Great Britain, the Russians would have seized the entire line from Niu-chwang up to Peking. During the latter part of June, they captured the Tientsin depot, burned the office, destroyed the safe and the documents it contained, and seized land, some tracts of which had been owned by British subjects.[^[300]] On July 8, the Northern Railway was seized and the British engineer, C. W. Kinder, and his staff were turned out,[^[301]] and, in spite of the dissent of the British and American commanders, the Admirals of the allied Powers voted on July 16 that the Russians should manage the railway.[^[302]] In August, the Russians claimed also the line between Tong-ku and Shanhai-Kwan, on the one hand, and the one between Tientsin and Peking, on the other, thus completing the control of the entire connection.[^[303]] British protests were in a measure waived by the new Commander-in-Chief of the allied forces, Count von Waldersee, who early in October assigned the repair of the section up to Yang-tsun to the Russians.[^[304]] About this time, fifty miles of railway material belonging to a British firm were seized at Niu-chwang by the Russians,[^[305]] followed by the seizure of the collieries at Tong-shan and Lin-si hitherto operated by the Chinese Engineering and Mining Company.[^[306]] Other incidents followed, greatly to the annoyance of those whose interests had been invested in the works. It was at this juncture that, on October 16, 1900, an Agreement was signed between the Governments of Great Britain and Germany, upholding the principle of the open door in China (Article 1), disclaiming territorial designs upon China on the part of the contracting Powers (Article 2), and supplemented by the following (Article 3), embodying the well-known principle of the balance of power at China’s expense: “In case of another Power making use of the complications in China in order to obtain under any form whatever such territorial advantages, the two contracting parties reserve to themselves the right to come to a preliminary understanding as to the eventual steps to be taken for the protection of their own interests in China.”[^[307]] This is the notorious Anglo-German Agreement, the fate of which has been an object of much ridicule among writers upon Chinese affairs of recent years. The diplomacy which had resulted in the conclusion of this Agreement has not been made known to the public, but as to the circumstances which had caused the two Powers to negotiate, it may safely be inferred that; so far as the British side was concerned, the Russian conduct in North China was a potent factor.[^[308]] As to the deeper causes on both sides for the extraordinary rapprochement, it is easy to speculate upon but unsafe to asseverate them.[^[309]] The Agreement further stated that other interested Powers should be invited to accept the principles recorded in it (Article 4). It is interesting to see how this peculiar combination of the principles of (1) the open door, (2) the integrity of China, and (3) a balance between the Powers on the Chinese ground, was viewed by the other Powers. Japan joined the Agreement on October 29, as a signatory, but not as an adhering State.[^[310]] France, Austria, and Italy recognized as identical with their own all of the principles proposed,[^[311]] while the United States did likewise with the first two, but expressed itself unconcerned with the third.[^[312]] As for Russia, she seized this opportunity to indulge her diplomatic sarcasm. She declared that, from her point of view, the Agreement “did not perceptibly modify the situation in China,” and the second principle perfectly corresponded with Russia’s intentions, as “she was the first to lay down the maintenance of the integrity of the Chinese Empire as a fundamental principle of her policy in China.” Her reply to the first principle was delicately expressed, as follows: It “can be favorably entertained by Russia, as this stipulation does not infringe in any way the status quo established in China by existing treaties.”[^[313]] In other words, the open door may or may not apply to other places not yet covered by the existing treaties and still open to whatever development might take place. The evil genius of the third Article of the Anglo-German Agreement was not less skillfully answered by Russia: “The Imperial Government, while referring to its Circular of the 12th (25th) August, can only renew the declaration that such an infringement [by another Power] would oblige Russia to modify her attitude according to circumstances.”[^[314]] From these words, it was plain that outside of the two contracting Powers, the Agreement could not exercise great influence, and least upon Russia, which declined to observe any new feature in the instrument. The virtue of the Agreement was, moreover, seriously impaired by the insincerity of one of its parties, and by the consequent difference of views between themselves. The document was openly talked about in Germany as the Yang-tsze Agreement, it being meant that Great Britain thereby pledged herself to abstain from annexing the Yang-tsze Provinces, hitherto considered, much to the jealousy of Germany, as a British sphere of interest.[^[315]] More momentous was the question whether the Agreement included in its scope, not only the eighteen Provinces, but also Manchuria. The answer would, of course, depend upon whether both parties would consider, under the provision of the third Article, that they alike possessed “their own interests” to protect in Manchuria. Seen in this light, it is not strange that, in the opinion of Lord Lansdowne, the “Agreement most unquestionably extended to Manchuria, which is part of the Chinese Empire,”[^[316]] while, from Count von Bülow’s point of view, “The Anglo-German Agreement had no reference to Manchuria.” “I can imagine nothing,” he added, “which we can regard with more indifference” than Manchuria.[^[317]] Evidently Germany had entered into the Agreement with different motives from those of Great Britain, and perhaps also with less zeal, if zeal there was.

CHAPTER IX
A MODUS VIVENDI: THE ALEXIEFF-TSÊNG AGREEMENT

In the mean time, the Chinese Court[^[318]] having largely emancipated itself from the sway of the reactionary Prince Tuan and his associates, the Representatives at Peking of the eleven interested Powers had agreed in September to open discussions among themselves of the terms of peace to be presented to the Chinese plenipotentiaries, Prince Ching and Li Hung-chang.[^[319]] The German Government, however, proposed, as a prerequisite of peace negotiations with China, a drastic measure demanding the surrender to the Powers of the chief culprits of the recent trouble. The proposition meeting little encouragement from other Ministers, Germany presented a new condition on October 3. The latter was, however, supplanted by the basis for negotiations formulated on September 30 and presented five days later to the Powers by the French Minister.[^[320]] His proposals, to which Russia immediately assented,[^[321]] and which with important amendments[^[322]] and additions became the basis of the Protocol signed on September 7, 1901, comprised the following six points: (1) the punishment of the chief offenders designated by the Representatives of the Powers at Peking; (2) maintenance of the prohibition of the importation of arms into China; (3) indemnities for the foreign governments, societies, and individuals; (4) establishment of a permanent legation guard at Peking; (5) dismantlement of the Taku forts; and (6) military occupation of two or three points on the road from Tientsin to Taku, so as to keep open the passage between Peking and the sea. It is needless for us to follow the negotiations which proceeded at Peking after these proposals were made by France, but it is important to observe that the French propositions were limited, in the first place, to North China, and, in the second place, to those questions in North China which concerned all the Powers alike. The significance of all this, or at least of the prompt assent of Russia,[^[323]] may well be inferred from the opposition as readily offered by the latter when Germany[^[324]] and Japan,[^[325]] respectively, urged that a proper mention should be made in the peace protocol of China’s consent to repair the murder of Baron von Ketteler and the Chancellor Sugiyama. Russia maintained that “proposals of this nature, serving principally as a satisfaction to be given to private views of one State, ought not to enter into the common programme of the collective demands, which had as their object the interests of all the Powers collectively and the reëstablishment of a normal state of affairs in the Celestial Empire.”[^[326]] “In the Chinese question it is advisable,” said the Official Messenger of St. Petersburg, “not to lose sight of the necessity of distinguishing clearly the questions which interest each of the Powers in particular and those which affect the interests of all the Powers in general.”[^[327]] This distinction had been fundamental in the Russian diplomacy in China since 1900, for, if one question of the former class was allowed to be dealt with in the common deliberation of the Representatives of all the Powers, why should not another question of the same class be similarly treated? Or, in other words, if the Sugiyama affair was referred to the collective council, the argument that the Manchurian problem should be solved solely by Russia, without intervention of the other Powers, would lose much of its force.[^[328]] The ultimate failure of Russian diplomacy—for diplomacy has failed when it ends in a war, and, if Russia does succeed, her success will be that of force, not of diplomacy—may be said to be largely due to the evident contradiction of this fundamental distinction between North China and Manchuria, upon which she sought to build her entire diplomatic structure in this crisis. As a matter of fact, it was as impossible to deny the profound interest felt by Great Britain and the United States, and, above all, by Japan, in the economic development of Manchuria, as it would have been to exclude Russia from the community of the Powers in North China. It should be remembered that Russia herself persistently maintained that the principle of the integrity of China applied also to Manchuria, and she would have hardly antagonized other Powers had she expressed an equally clear adhesion to the principle of the open door, and made efforts to carry out pledges regarding both principles.

Events soon took place, however, which made other Powers skeptical of Russia’s sincerity in her profession of even the principle of the integrity of the Chinese Empire. The new question thus thrust upon the attention of the Powers was of an extremely grave nature, for if the sovereignty of Manchuria should eventually pass into the hands of Russia, the treaty rights that other nations had acquired therein from China might rightfully be terminated by Russia. Whatever her ultimate objects, it was hardly politic for her to approach the difficult Manchurian question at the time and in the manner selected by her. Dr. George Morrison reported to the Times on December 31, 1900, and Sir Ernest Satow, the British Minister at Peking, confirmed it as authentic,[^[329]] that the delegates of Admiral Alexieff and the Tartar General Tsêng-chi, of Mukden, had signed, in November last, an agreement whereby Russia consented to return to the Chinese the civil government of the Southern Province of Fêng-tien (Sheng-king) in Manchuria, on the following conditions:—

1. “The Tartar General Tsêng undertakes to protect the province and pacify it, and to assist in the construction of the railroad.

2. “He must treat kindly the Russians in military occupation, protecting the railway and pacifying the province, and provide them with lodging and provisions.

3. “He must disarm and disband the Chinese soldiery, delivering in their entirety to the Russian military officials all munitions of war in the arsenals not already occupied by the Russians.

4. “All forts and defenses in Fêng-tien not occupied by the Russians, and all powder magazines not required by the Russians, must be dismantled in the presence of Russian officials.

5. “Niu-chwang and other places now occupied by the Russians shall be restored to the Chinese civil administration when the Russian Government is satisfied that the pacification of the provinces is complete.

6. “The Chinese shall maintain law and order by local police under the Tartar General.

7. “A Russian Political Resident, with general powers of control, shall be stationed at Mukden, to whom the Tartar General must give all information respecting any important measure.

8. “Should the local police be insufficient in any emergency, the Tartar General will communicate with the Russian Resident at Mukden, and invite Russia to dispatch reinforcements.

9. “The Russian text shall be the standard.”[^[330]]

In brief, the province was to be disarmed, its military government to be in the Russian hands, its civil government to be placed under the supervision of a Russian Resident, with additional duties on the part of the Chinese to provide for the Russian military and to protect Russian properties. The last provisions were coupled with the right of the Russians to supply reinforcements, if the Chinese local police should prove insufficient. The probable significance of this measure will be fully discussed in connection with the Russo-Chinese Convention of April 8, 1902. As regards the Agreement now under discussion, Dr. Morrison opined that it would necessarily be followed by similar agreements with reference to the other two of the three Eastern Provinces,[^[331]] and then all Manchuria would be “a de facto Russian protectorate, Russia by a preëxisting agreement having already the right to maintain all necessary troops for the protection of the railway.” It is needless to say that the report of this Agreement caused universal amazement in the diplomatic world. It soon became known[^[332]] that the Chinese delegate who signed it at Port Arthur had received no authorization to do so from the Peking Government.[^[333]] But the Japanese Government, hearing from a reliable source that so late as the beginning of February, Russia was pressing China to ratify the Agreement, undertook to express its opinion to the Chinese Minister at Tokio, that the conclusion of any such agreement would be a “source of danger” to the Chinese Government, and that no arrangement affecting territorial rights of the Empire ought to be concluded between the Chinese Government and any one of the Powers.[^[334]] At the instance of Japan, Great Britain also made precisely the same representation to China,[^[335]] Germany following the example in slightly different language,[^[336]] and the United States also reminding China of “the impropriety, inexpediency, and even extreme danger to the interests of China, of considering any private territorial and financial engagements, at least without the full knowledge and approval of all the Powers now engaged in negotiation.”[^[337]]

It has often been reported in the press that the Agreement was never ratified by either China or Russia. Before, however, any of the protests of the Powers reached the Peking Government, Count Lamsdorff had, on February 6, “very readily” explained the situation to the British Ambassador at St. Petersburg. He said it was quite untrue that any agreement which would give Russia new rights and a virtual protectorate in Southern Manchuria had been concluded or was under discussion with China, but “the Russian military authorities who had been engaged in the temporary occupation and pacification of that province had been directed, when reinstating the Chinese authorities in their former posts, to arrange with the local civil authorities a modus vivendi for the duration of the simultaneous presence of Russian and Chinese authorities in Southern Manchuria, the object being to prevent the recurrence of disturbances in the vicinity of the Russian frontier, and to protect the railway from the Russian frontier to Port Arthur.” “Some of the details of the proposed modus vivendi had been sent for consideration to St. Petersburg, but no convention or arrangement with the central Government of China or of a permanent character had been concluded with regard to Manchuria, nor had the Emperor any intention of departing in any way from the assurances which he had publicly given that Manchuria would be entirely restored to its former condition in the Chinese Empire as soon as circumstances admitted of it.”[^[338]] A careful reading of this statement, as typical of the many declarations made by Russia in regard to Manchuria, will show how untenable is the popular view that she persistently falsifies. There is here a fair admission that a modus vivendi was under way between the Russian military officers in Southern Manchuria and the local Chinese authorities, and that it was not of a permanent nature, nor was it concluded with the central Government at Peking, and both of these points accord with the reported facts. Nor can one deny the cogency of the argument that Russia would evacuate Manchuria “as soon as circumstances admitted of it.” What constituted the objectionable feature of the affair, from the standpoint of the interested Powers, must have been that, inasmuch as Count Lamsdorff would not publish the terms of the modus vivendi, it was not possible for them to satisfy themselves that it contained nothing which would render impossible the consummation of “circumstances” favorable for evacuation, and eventually tend toward a “permanent” possession of the territory by Russia. As matters stood, it would be as natural for the Powers to entertain such a doubt, as it was for Russia to deem it necessary to declare, in her circular of August 25, 1900, that she would withdraw from Manchuria if, for one thing, no obstacle was placed in her way by the action of other Powers. The doubt of the Powers was rather intensified, if at all, by the further explanation by Count Lamsdorff on February 6, that “when it came to the final and complete evacuation of Manchuria, the Russian Government would be obliged to obtain from the central Government of China an effective guarantee against the recurrence of the recent attack on her frontier and the destruction of her railway, but had no intention of seeking this guarantee in any acquisition of territory or of an actual or virtual protectorate over Manchuria, the object being to simply guarantee the faithful observance in the future by China of the terms of the agreement [agreement between the Chinese Government and the Russo-Chinese Bank, September 28, 1896?], which she had been unable to fulfill during the disturbances. The terms of this guarantee might possibly form the subject of conversation here between Count Lamsdorff and the Chinese Minister, or be left for discussion at Peking.”[^[339]] A month before this official statement of Russia reached the London Government, the latter heard from the Japanese Minister, Baron Hayashi, that Russia and China had already made at St. Petersburg some arrangement regarding Manchuria,[^[340]] evidently referred to by Count Lamsdorff in the quoted passage as “an effective guarantee.”

CHAPTER X
A “STARTING-POINT”—THE LAMSDORFF-YANG-YU CONVENTION

It was as early as January 12 that the Japanese Government had made inquiries directly at the Russian Government regarding the contents of the Agreement reported to have been made between Count Lamsdorff and Yang-yu at St. Petersburg.[^[341]] The report was apparently premature, for its contents were unknown for more than a month after, and even on February 18, Dr. Morrison reported from Peking that, according to a telegram to the Chinese Government from Yang-yu, it would be several days before Count Lamsdorff and M. Witte could settle the terms between themselves of the new agreement they wished to propose.[^[342]] The Times correspondent, however, was able to send certain preliminary articles which, he said, had been verbally communicated by M. Witte to Yang-yu.[^[343]] On February 27, Sir Ernest Satow[^[344]] and Dr. Morrison[^[345]] simultaneously reported the contents of the agreement which Yang-yu had been called upon by Count Lamsdorff to sign, and which he had telegraphed to Peking on the 23d. The proposed convention was, according to Dr. Morrison, obviously intended to exist side by side with the Alexieff-Tsêng Agreement concluded in the previous November. The substance of this convention, the authenticity of which the same writer claimed to have been admitted by the Russians in Peking, was as follows:—

1. “The Emperor of Russia, being desirous of manifesting his friendship for China, ignores the outbreak of hostilities in Manchuria, and agrees to restore the whole of that country to China, to be administered in all respects as of old.

2. “By the 6th Article of the Manchurian Railway Agreement, the Railway Company was authorized to guard the line with troops. The country being at present in disorder, the number of those troops is insufficient for the purpose, and a corps must be retained until order is restored and China has executed the last four Articles of the present convention.

3. “In case of emergency the troops retained in Manchuria shall render every possible assistance to China in preserving order.

4. “Chinese troops having been the greatest aggressors in the recent attacks on Russia, China agrees not to organize an army until the railway is completed and opened to traffic. When military forces are organized eventually, their numbers shall be fixed in consultation with Russia. The importation of arms and munitions of war into Manchuria is prohibited.

5. “As a measure for the preservation of Manchuria, China shall dismiss from office all Generals-in-Chief (Tartar Generals) and high officials whose actions conflict with friendly relations, and who are denounced for that reason by Russia. China may organize mounted and foot police in the interior of Manchuria, but their numbers shall be fixed in consultation with Russia.

“Cannon shall be excluded from their armament, and no subjects of another Power shall be employed in the execution of the functions.

6. “In accordance with the understanding formerly accepted by China, no subject of another Power shall be employed to train naval or military forces in the Northern Provinces (i. e., Provinces in North China).

7. “The local authorities nearest to the neutral zone referred to in Article 5 of the Liao-tung Agreement (of March 15/27, 1898) shall make special regulations for the preservation of order in the zone.

“The administrative autonomy of Kin-chow shall be abolished.

8. “Without the consent of Russia, China shall not concede mining, railway, or other privileges to another Power, in the countries adjoining Russia, that is to say, in Manchuria, Mongolia, Tarbagatai, Ili, Kashgar, Yarkand, Khoten, etc. China shall not herself construct a railway in those countries without Russia’s consent.

“Outside of Niu-chwang, land shall not be leased to the subjects of another Power.

9. “China is under obligation to pay Russia’s war expenses and indemnities to the Powers. The amount of indemnity due to Russia, the dates of payment, and the security, shall be arranged conjointly with the Powers.

10. “The amounts due for damage done to the railway, for the property of the Company’s employees which was stolen, and for losses caused by delay of the works, shall be arranged by the company with China.

11. “An understanding may be come to with the Railway Company to set off the whole or part of the above indemnities against privileges of other kinds. This may be arranged by an alteration of the existing Railway Agreement (of August 27 / September 8, 1896), or by the concession of further privileges.

12. “China shall, as previously agreed,[^[346]] grant a concession for the construction of a railway from Manchurian main line, or a branch line, to the Great Wall in the direction of Peking.”[^[347]]

There never appeared an authentic text of the convention from either the Russian or the Chinese official sources, but its existence in some drastic form was intimated by the Viceroys Liu and Chang, and by the Court Ministers then at Si-ngan, as well as by the Chinese Emperor himself.[^[348]] Furthermore, it could be plainly inferred that no one but Chinese diplomatic officials could have let out the terms of the proposed convention, or else it would have been impossible for one to believe that an instrument of so immense a scope and so arbitrary a nature, as had been reported, could have emanated from Russia. If the reported text was in the main authentic, as Sir Ernest Satow believed it was,[^[349]] it is little wonder that Russia exercised a vigorous pressure upon the Peking Government for a speedy signing of the convention before the arrival of effective protests from other Powers, her Minister at Peking stating to Prince Ching and Li Hung-chang that the Agreement concerned only Russia and China, and that the Peking Government should not take any notice of what the foreign Representatives might say about it.[^[350]] The Court appeared seized by a panic, excepting the pro-Russian Li Hung-chang, who pretended that he considered that the proposed convention would not impair the sovereignty of China in Manchuria.[^[351]] The Emperor, declaring that “it was impossible for China alone to incur the displeasure of Russia by remaining firm,” appealed, on February 28, to Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Japan to mediate.[^[352]] The British Government at once instructed Sir Ernest Satow to stay the hand of Li, who was about to sign, till he had received the replies of the four Powers whose mediation had been formally requested by the Emperor, and also to urge the patriotic Yang-tsze Viceroys to memorialize the Throne against the acceptance of the Russian proposition.[^[353]] The Viceroys, as well as several other subjects of China, had already done so.[^[354]] The British remonstrance to China against entering into separate agreements with individual Powers was repeated on March 20.[^[355]] At the same time Germany suggested, Great Britain and Japan seconding, that China should refer the matter to the conference of the foreign Representatives at Peking, who were, it should be remembered, in the midst of their difficult discussion of the preliminary terms of peace between the Powers and China.[^[356]] It is unnecessary to say that Japan, in concert with Great Britain, strongly urged the Chinese Government not to sign the convention separately with one of the Powers, for such an act was contrary to the principle of solidarity which then united the Powers, and an individual convention with a Power would materially lessen the capacity of China to meet her obligations toward all the Powers.[^[357]]

At this point we have to record a singular conjunction of circumstances which has caused criticisms not altogether favorable to Russia. It has already been shown that she had frequently had recourse to acts which at once placed her somewhat apart from the community of the Powers, and also were liable to be interpreted as being designed to ingratiate herself with the afflicted China. Thus Count Lamsdorff more than once deprecated the continuance of the punitive expeditions which the allied forces made to one place or another in the Province of Chili.[^[358]] His reasons were so apparently plausible that, under different circumstances, he might have been supported by certain other Powers.[^[359]] These very Powers, however, most keenly resented Russia’s detachment from the allies, when she definitely cleared herself from the deliberation of the Representatives of the Powers at Peking in regard to the punishment to be inflicted by the Chinese Government upon certain provincial officials who had been directly guilty of outrages to foreigners during the recent trouble. The peace commissioners had almost disposed of the punishment question, in order next to attack the knotty problem of the indemnity to be paid by China, but M. de Giers had been instructed by his Government “not only to abstain from entering into any discussion as to the nature or method of execution of the capital sentence, but also to take no part in the further discussions relative to the punishment to be inflicted on the Chinese dignitaries.”[^[360]] “At the meeting [of the peace commissioners at Peking] to-day,” wrote Sir Ernest Satow on February 28, the day after he reported the draft of the most exhaustive agreement broached by Russia upon China, and the very day when the Chinese Emperor appealed to Great Britain, Germany, the United States, and Japan to intervene, “we presented to our colleagues our list of provincial officials, of whom ten were named as deserving the death penalty and about ninety to be punished in a lesser degree. Objection was made only by the Russian Minister, who stated that he could not accept our proposals unless he received fresh instructions, and that his Government’s wish from the beginning had been to substitute a less severe form of punishment for the death penalty. Both my French colleague and I are of opinion that our death penalty list might justly have included far more than what had been demanded, and is exceedingly moderate in its reduced form.”[^[361]] On March 15, that is, about the time when the terms of her proposed agreement were, as will be presently seen, modified by Russia in China’s favor, Sir Charles Scott wrote Lord Salisbury that recently Count Lamsdorff had intimated that “he considered the question of the punishment of Chinese officials at an end as far as concerned Russia,” and that “he referred to the murders of the missionaries as a subject in which Russia was not interested.”[^[362]] Such a remark was regarded as a radical departure from the diplomatic amenities between the Powers. Russia might without offense have pleaded her reasons against the opinion of the majority, and then dissented at the final vote, but it was considered a very different matter for her to declare, in such a way as would openly place the other Powers in a false light in the eyes of the Chinese, that she had nothing to do with the question. The act, it must be said, came with particular ill grace at a time when Russia was believed to be negotiating an agreement with China, separately, and in terms manifestly contrary to the fundamental principles upon which the Powers’ diplomacy at Peking was based.[^[363]] A joint vote demanding the punishment of the officials had to be presented to the Chinese commissioners, on April 1, with the signatures of all but M. de Giers.[^[364]]

Directly in connection with this episode may be considered the fact that, at the urgent request of China, Russia had in the mean time somewhat modified the terms of her proposition, about March 19, so as, in brief, to allow China to station troops in Manchuria for the protection of the Russian railways and the prevention of fresh disorders, their numbers and posts to be determined by consulting Russia; and also to prohibit the importation of arms and ammunition only in accordance with the agreement with the Powers (Article 4); to exclude cannon from the armament of the Chinese mounted and foot police forces in Manchuria only until peace is restored (Article 5); to retain the administrative autonomy of Kin-chow (Article 7); and to arrange with the Company the matter of indemnities in accordance with the general method used by the Powers (Article 10). The eighth Article was altered so as to apply the exclusive measure only to Manchuria, and the sixth was entirely expunged.[^[365]] Simultaneously with these modifications in China’s favor, Russia seemed to have suddenly increased her pressure upon the helpless Court of China. Count Lamsdorff was reported[^[366]] to have declared to Yang-yu that he would withdraw the draft and break off negotiations if it were not signed within two weeks from March 13. An Imperial Decree, dated March 20, and addressed to Sir Chin-chen Lo-fêng-luh, the Chinese Minister at London, stated: “The Manchurian Agreement has now been amended, but the stipulated time within which the Agreement is to be signed will soon expire. As the Marquess of Lansdowne has advised us to wait for his reply [to the Edict of February 28], we have now to command Lo-fêng-luh to ask Lord Lansdowne either (1) to help us out of the difficulty, or (2) to ask Russia to extend the time stipulated for signing the Agreement. Otherwise, we, being placed in great difficulty, will be unable to oppose Russia any further. An immediate reply is expected. Respect this.”[^[367]] On the next day came an urgent appeal from Yang-tsze Viceroys and Taotai Sheng, who requested, under instructions from the Chinese Government, that Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Japan intervene to obtain an extension of time with a view to the modification of the Articles regarding civil administration in the Chinese garrisons in Manchuria, the exclusive trading rights demanded by the Russians, and the proposed railway to the Wall.[^[368]] Six days later, on March 27, the two-week period expired, and the Chinese Court, which still sojourned at Si-ngan in the Shen-si Province, telegraphed to Sir Chin-chen Lo-fêng-luh, as follows: “We have followed the advice of Lord Lansdowne, in not giving our authority to sign the Manchurian Agreement. In your telegrams of the 20th[^[369]] and 23d[^[370]] instant, you have assured us of the moral support of England if we followed her advice. Our Plenipotentiaries, Prince Ching and Viceroy Li, report that Russia will now permanently occupy Manchuria, and that the collective negotiations will have to be suspended. The Court feels great anxiety about this matter. As Manchuria is the cradle of the present dynasty, how could China tolerate a permanent occupation of that region? We now apply for the positive assistance of England in bringing about a satisfactory settlement between China and Russia, in order to avoid a rupture with that Power, which could not fail to be detrimental to the interests of China and the treaty Powers. Please lay the contents of the telegram before Lord Lansdowne and request an immediate reply.”[^[371]] It is possible that these messages were simultaneously repeated to some or all of the rest of the four Powers, and, if so, it becomes tenable that, but for the protests of the Powers, Li Hung-chang might have signed the agreement. Nor can it be denied that, even after their final refusal to accept the Russian proposals, the Chinese officials clearly apprehended that, failing the positive support of the Powers, Manchuria would be permanently occupied by the northern Power. It is, of course, uncertain, and perhaps also immaterial, whether they had voluntarily reached that conclusion, or whether the Russians had led them to the belief by threats.

Let us now turn to see what explanations Russia had offered, for Japan about January 12[^[372]] and Great Britain on March 4[^[373]] had made inquiries at the Russian Government in respect to the actual text of the Agreement. Lord Lansdowne repeated his query on March 9, adding that if the version reported by Sir Ernest Satow was approximately accurate, it was “impossible to describe it as a contract of a temporary and provisional nature, and our treaty rights were certainly affected by it.” Then, in his oft outspoken vein, the Marquess concluded: “On the other hand, it is surely reasonable that we should ask his Excellency’s [Count Lamsdorff’s] help in exposing the trick, and putting the saddle on the right horse, if, as he suggests, garbled versions of the Agreement are being circulated by the Chinese Government in order to create dissension between the Powers; and you may state that to join the Russian Government in exhibiting in its true light so discreditable a manœuvre would afford the liveliest satisfaction to His Majesty’s Government.”[^[374]] Russia, however, would not communicate the text of the proposed Agreement, and it was explained later by Count Lamsdorff that there had been a “programme,” the detail of which had at one time or another been under discussion, but there had never existed any regular draft Agreement in twelve Articles; that the Czar had at no time given him the full powers indispensable for concluding such an agreement, and that in her negotiations with China [concerning the programme], three different Departments of the Russian Government had been equally engaged. These circumstances, and also “the unwise interference of the press and public, which seemed to assert a very dangerous claim to be admitted to a seat and voice in the councils of the Powers regarding China,” made it very difficult for the Count to be as frankly communicative as he would otherwise have wished to have been. Indeed, “it would have been impossible for him to have discussed the details of these negotiations with a third Government.”[^[375]] To the Japanese Minister, who had been instructed by his Government to make the friendly proposal to Russia that the Representatives of the Powers at Peking should be given an opportunity to consider the draft of the Manchurian Agreement before it was signed, Count Lamsdorff replied in no less interesting manner. He observed, on March 26, that the Agreement solely concerned two independent States, and must be concluded without the intervention of any other Powers, and politely but firmly declined to consider any such proposal as was made by Japan. The Count added, however, that “he could give an official assurance to the Japanese Minister that neither the sovereignty and the integrity of China in Manchuria nor the treaty rights of any other Power were affected by the proposed Agreement; that it was of a provisional nature, and a necessary preliminary to the Russian troops evacuating the province. Its early signature was desired by his Excellency in order that the unjust suspicions aroused by false reports with regard to it might be removed by its publication.”[^[376]] Satisfied neither with this statement nor with China’s refusal to sign the Agreement, the Japanese Government is said to have made a second protest at St. Petersburg in a more resolute tone than in the first, on April 5.[^[377]] On the same day, however, appeared in the Russian Messager Officiel a long statement recapitulating Russia’s relations with China since the beginning of the Boxer affair, and declaring that, owing to the publication in the foreign press of all sorts of false reports of the alleged treaties with China, and to the serious obstacles that had apparently been put in the way of China as regards the conclusion of an agreement with Russia serving as “a starting-point” toward the restoration of Manchuria to China, “it had been found impossible immediately to take the measures contemplated for the gradual evacuation of Manchuria.” The negotiations had been dropped. “With regard to the question of the complete and final restitution of this territory to China,” concluded the official statement, “it is evident that it can only be accomplished after a normal state of affairs has been reëstablished in the Chinese Empire, and a central Government has been secured in the capital, independent and sufficiently strong to guarantee Russia against the renewal of the disturbances of last year. While maintaining the present temporary form of government with the object of insuring order in the neighborhood of the vast Russian frontier, but remaining unalterably true to their original programme, as repeatedly formulated, the Imperial Government will quietly await the future progress of events.”[^[378]]

CHAPTER XI
FURTHER DEMANDS

Russia did not wait long before reaching another “starting-point.” No sooner did the effort of Viceroy Chang Chih-tung and the late Viceroy Liu Kun-yi to create among the Representatives of some Powers a sentiment in favor of opening all Manchuria to foreign trade, so as to forestall the annexation of the territory by Russia, miscarry,[^[379]] than Sir Ernest Satow reported from “a thoroughly trustworthy source,” on August 14, 1901, that Russia was resuming her negotiations with China to bring about the signature of the amended Manchurian Agreement of the preceding March.[^[380]] Lord Lansdowne at once instructed him to inform the Chinese authorities, if his advice was requested, that the proper course for them to pursue would be to call the attention of the Powers to the matter and to communicate the text of the provisions in question, should they prove inconsistent with the treaty obligations of China to other Powers or with the integrity of the Empire; so that the British Government should be ready to advise whether an infraction of its treaty rights was involved, or whether the provisions were in any other way objectionable.[^[381]] It does not appear that Russia exercised great pressure upon China for the conclusion of the Agreement. Toward the end of the month, M. de Giers was replaced as Russian Minister at Peking by M. Paul Lessar, formerly a railway engineer on the Afghan frontier, and a man of delicate health but brilliant parts. Meanwhile, the peace commissioners of the eleven Powers had at last, on September 17, 1901, succeeded in signing at Peking with the two Chinese Plenipotentiaries the final Protocol between China and the Powers for the resumption of their friendly relations.[^[382]] It seems that, when the affairs in North China were thus finally settled, Russia felt herself freer than she ever had been to deal independently with China concerning the Manchurian question, which the Powers had allowed to remain. Moreover, the Imperial Court was expected shortly to return to the capital, and the Chinese Government began to look anxiously for the withdrawal of foreign troops from the realm. Seizing this opportunity, M. Lessar seems to have mooted, probably on October 5,[^[383]] a new convention of evacuation, whose comparatively mild terms commended themselves powerfully at this moment to the Chinese commissioners, especially to Li Hung-chang.[^[384]] Considering the feeble attitude of China, it would have been extremely difficult for the interested Powers to protest to her against the acceptance of the Russian demands, had not the Viceroys Liu and Chang, after learning their contents, again strongly reminded the Emperor and the Empress Dowager of the direct peril to the reigning dynasty which might result from acceding to the Russian proposals. In accordance with the wishes of the Court, the dying Li Hung-chang is said to have, on his sick-bed, seen M. Lessar, and appealed to the Russian friendship toward China to modify the terms of the proposed amendment.[^[385]] Li soon passed away, on November 7, leaving the gravest problem of China in a state of extreme uncertainty. As to the contents of the Russian proposition, it is interesting to observe that they were presently revealed from a source whose veracity could hardly be questioned. On December 11, Prince Ching disclosed them to Mr. Conger.[^[386]] They coincided with those that the latter had reported to Secretary Hay on the 3d, namely, that, stated briefly, Russia should evacuate Manchuria, under the usual conditions, in three years; that China should protect the railways and Russian subjects in the territory; that she might station, in places other than lands assigned to the Railway Company, mounted and foot soldiers, whose numbers should, however, be determined by an agreement with Russia, and who should exclude artillery; that troops of no other nationality should be employed in protecting the railways; that the Anglo-Russian Agreement of April, 1899, should be strictly adhered to; that subjects of no other nationality should without Russian consent be allowed to build railways or bridges in Southern Manchuria; and that the Shan-hai-kwan-Niu-chwang-Sinminting Railways should be returned to China after her payment to Russia of the expenditure incurred by the latter in their occupation.[^[387]] Prince Ching, it appears, presented a counter-proposition to the Russian convention, which, among other things, seems to have requested that the evacuation of Manchuria should be completed within one year, instead of three, as was provided in the original draft. Russia’s reply to this arrived in Peking the last of January, 1902, agreeing to reduce the period of evacuation from three to two years.[^[388]] At the same time, however, the Russian Government now strongly supported, in addition to the proposed convention, a separate agreement proposed by the Russo-Chinese Bank. The latter, according to Prince Ching, contained, besides the railway concessions already granted to the Bank, provision that China should herself undertake all industrial development in Manchuria, but if she required financial help from the outside, application should always first be made to the Russo-Chinese Bank; only when the latter did not wish to engage in the work might citizens of other countries be allowed to undertake it. A clause was also to be inserted, the practical value of which is not clear, that citizens of every country should have the same rights as they then did to trade at the open ports and in the interior.[^[389]] Prince Ching was obliged to acknowledge to Mr. Conger, on January 19, 1902, that, owing to the pressure which Russia increased simultaneously with the apparent concessions she had made, she would yield no further, and “he was convinced that, if China held out longer, they would never again secure terms so lenient; that the Russians were in full possession of the territory, and their treatment of the Chinese was so aggravating that longer occupation was intolerable; that they must be got out, and that the only way left for China to accomplish this was to make the best possible terms. The only terms that Russia would consent to were the signing of both the Convention and the Russo-Chinese Bank Agreement.”[^[390]]

LI HUNG-CHANG

It is unnecessary to say that against the Russian demands Great Britain, Japan, and the United States had separately and more than once entered firm protests at Peking. The conduct of the first two Powers, however, is not shown in the published documents. Secretary Hay reminded the Russian and Chinese Governments, on February 3, of the repeated assurances made by the Czar’s Foreign Minister of his devotion to the principle of the open door in all parts of China, and said: “An agreement whereby China gives any corporation or company the exclusive right or privilege of opening mines, establishing railroads, or in any other way industrially developing Manchuria, can but be viewed with the greatest concern by the Government of the United States. It constitutes a monopoly, which is a distinct breach of the stipulations of the treaties concluded between China and foreign Powers, and thereby seriously affects the rights of American citizens.”[^[391]] To this note, the interesting reply of Count Lamsdorff, signed by himself, was: “... It [the Russian Government] feels itself bound ... to declare that negotiations carried on between two entirely independent States are not subject to be submitted to the approval of other Powers. There is no thought of attacking the principle of the ‘open door’ as that principle is understood by the Imperial Government of Russia,[^[392]] and Russia has no intention whatever to change the policy followed by her in that respect up to the present time. If the Russo-Chinese Bank should obtain concessions in China, the agreements of a private character relating to them would not differ from those heretofore concluded by so many other foreign corporations.[^[393]] But would it not be very strange if the ‘door’ that is ‘open’ to certain nations should be closed to Russia, whose frontier adjoins that of Manchuria, and who has been forced by recent events to send her troops into that province to reëstablish order in the plain and common interest of all nations?... It is impossible to deny to an independent State the right to grant to others such concessions as it is free to dispose of, and I have every reason to believe that the demands of the Russo-Chinese Bank do not in the least exceed those that have been so often formulated by other foreign companies, and I feel that under the circumstances it would not be easy for the Imperial Government to deny to the Russian companies that support which is given by other Governments to companies and syndicates of their own nationalities. At all events, I beg your Excellency to believe that there is not, nor can there be, any question of the contradiction of the assurances which, under the orders of His Majesty the Emperor, I have had occasion to give heretofore in regard to the principles which invariably direct the policy of Russia.”[^[394]] It should be noted here that Count Lamsdorff’s statement, while it refers to the Agreement with the Bank, which he supported, contains no reference to the Convention proposed by the Russian Government.

Negotiations lagged, China probably declining to sign under the remonstrances of Great Britain, the United States, and Japan. On March 2, Prince Ching showed Mr. Conger a draft of his new counter-proposals, which Japan was said to have wholly, and Great Britain in the main, approved.[^[395]] These proposals are interesting for their practical identity, save a slight difference,[^[396]] with the final Russo-Chinese Convention of April 8, 1902, which will be fully treated in a subsequent chapter. This fact is a conclusive evidence that after March, Russia suddenly accepted nearly all of the counter-proposals made by China. This abrupt condescension on the part of Russia is supposed to have been partly due to an important event which had recently taken place in the diplomatic world—the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Agreement signed at London on January 30, 1902, and simultaneously announced in Parliament and the Imperial Diet of Tokio on February 12.

CHAPTER XII
THE ANGLO-JAPANESE AGREEMENT AND THE RUSSO-FRENCH DECLARATION

The details of the negotiations preliminary to the consummation of this remarkable stroke of diplomacy have not been made public, but we are in possession of some salient facts from which successive steps leading up to the final conclusion may be inferred with tolerable certainty. It is well known that Great Britain, which had always occupied a predominant place in the foreign relations of Japan, had persistently opposed the latter’s ardent wish and continual struggle to revise the humiliating treaties which had, about 1858, been imposed by the Powers upon the weak feudal Government of Yedo. In 1894, however, contrary to her past policy, Great Britain led other Powers in according to Japan a cordial recognition of the latter’s progress in various lines of her national activity, and assenting to the revision of her treaties. During the war with China in 1894–5, the British attitude was one of friendly neutrality between the two Oriental Empires, but the events after the conclusion of the war, especially the forced retrocession of the Liao-tung Peninsula, closely followed by the tightening hold of the Muscovites upon the Peking Court, seemed to have aroused the sympathy of Great Britain with Japan, mingled probably with the fear of the loss of some of her own predominant economic interests in China. From this time on, the interests of the two Powers had been seen to coincide in the Far East to an increasing degree, and the relations of their Governments had steadily risen in cordiality.[^[397]] At the rupture of the Boxer insurrection in 1900, the Cabinet of Lord Salisbury manifested so much faith in Japan as to request her immediately to dispatch large forces to the relief of the besieged Legations at Peking, Great Britain going even so far as to engage to undertake the necessary financial responsibilities of the proposed expedition.[^[398]] Both during the campaign and throughout the negotiation for peace, the two Powers, as well as the United States, conducted themselves together, as is apparent from our foregoing discussion, in perfect harmony.[^[399]] The common danger in Manchuria still further cemented their friendship. All this cordial relation, spontaneous as it was, would not, however, account for the formation of a definite alliance between the two Governments. It seems at least probable that the Anglo-German Agreement of October, 1900, as much by the importance of some of its principles as by its very inefficiency, served as a natural step toward a more wholesome alliance.[^[400]] In this new direction, Great Britain is said to have taken the initiative. This supposition will appear not improbable when it is considered that her immense interests in China, which had begun to be eclipsed by other Powers, would be best secured and promoted by the maintenance of the integrity of China and the open door in her market, and that this object could not be better assured than by an alliance with the strongest Eastern Power, whose fast growing interests in the neighboring lands were in a large measure identical with hers. Suggestions for such an agreement are known to have been made by Great Britain to Japan under the Itō Cabinet in April, 1901, and again under the present Katsura Cabinet in July, but it was not till October of that year that definite negotiations were opened by Japan. The Premier, Viscount Katsura, seems to have ascertained in December that the elder statesmen of the Empire were in hearty accord with the agreement toward which the negotiations had pointed.[^[401]] At this stage of the negotiations, also, there had developed other circumstances under which the “splendid” isolation of Great Britain appeared less tenable than before. Half a year after the Anglo-German Agreement was rendered valueless by the declarations of Herr von Bülow, the Czar paid a significant visit, in September, not only to France, but also to Germany. The ebullition of friendly sentiments between the heads of the States was not less effervescent at Danzig than at Dunkirk. The Russo-Chinese Bank presently floated a loan of 80,000,000 marks at Berlin, thus insuring to that extent the interests of the Germans in Russian success in the East. At the same time the situation in Manchuria had been growing more serious than before, while Germany had seemed no longer inclined to join Great Britain in the latter’s protests against the menacing conduct of Russia. Grave as was the danger to the political and commercial prestige of Great Britain in the East, her hands were still closely tied by the vexatious South African question. If there ever was need of an agreement with the rising Power of the Orient, it had probably been never more keenly felt by the British Government than in the last part of the year 1901. Side by side with these favorable circumstances for an understanding, the student should not for a moment lose from sight two fundamental conditions which drew together, not only the Governments, but also the people, of Great Britain and Japan with mutual attraction. One was sentimental: each of the two nations found in the other, though in different ways from one another, something of a counterpart of its geographical position, its material needs and aspirations, and the energy and enterprise of its individual members. This mutual sympathy was largely intensified by, not, indeed, so much the identity of their interests in the East, as the common principles under which these interests would be best protected—the independence and strength of China and Korea, and the equal opportunity therein for the economic enterprise of all nations.

COUNT KATSURA
Premier of Japan

The final outcome of the Anglo-Japanese negotiations was a remarkable product, the like of which is seldom seen in history, especially when it is considered that it united reciprocally two nations widely apart in race, religion, and history, one of which had rarely in time of peace entered into a regular alliance even with a European Power.[^[402]] The most striking, as well as the most important for our study, must be regarded the entirely fair and open principles to which the Agreement gave clear expression. These remarks may not be better substantiated than by quoting the exact words of the document itself, and of the dispatch inclosing the Agreement from Lord Lansdowne to Sir Claude MacDonald, the British Minister at Tokio, which read as follows:—

“The Governments of Great Britain and Japan, actuated solely by a desire to maintain the status quo and general peace in the extreme East, being moreover specially interested in maintaining the independence and territorial integrity of the Empire of China and the Empire of Korea, and in securing equal opportunities in those countries for the commerce and industry of all nations, hereby agree as follows:—

“Article I. The High Contracting Parties having mutually recognized the independence of China and Korea, declare themselves to be entirely uninfluenced by any aggressive tendencies in either country. Having in view, however, their special interests, of which those of Great Britain relate principally to China, while Japan, in addition to the interests which she possesses in China, is interested in a peculiar degree, politically as well as commercially and industrially, in Korea, the High Contracting Parties recognize that it will be admissible for either of them to take such measures as may be indispensable in order to safeguard those interests if threatened either by the aggressive action of any other Power, or by disturbances arising in China or Korea, and necessitating the intervention of either of the High Contracting Parties for the protection of the lives and property of its subjects.

“Article II. If either Great Britain or Japan, in the defense of their respective interests as above described, should become involved in war with another Power, the other High Contracting Party will maintain a strict neutrality, and use its efforts to prevent other Powers from joining in hostilities against its ally.

“Article III. If in the above event, any other Power or Powers should join in hostilities against that ally, the other High Contracting Party will come to its assistance, and will conduct war in common, and will make peace in mutual agreement with it.

“Article IV. The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another Power to the prejudice of the interests above described.

“Article V. Whenever, in the opinion of either Great Britain or Japan, the above-mentioned interests are in jeopardy, the two Governments will communicate with one another fully and frankly.

“Article VI. The present Agreement shall come into effect immediately after the date of its signature, and remain in force for five years from that date.

“In case neither of the High Contracting Parties should have notified twelve months before the expiration of the said five years the intention of terminating it, it shall remain binding until the expiration of one year from the day on which either of the High Contracting Parties shall have denounced it. But if, when the date fixed for its expiration arrives, either ally is actually engaged in war, the alliance shall, ipso facto, continue until peace is concluded.

“In faith whereof the Undersigned, duly authorized by their respective Governments, have signed this Agreement, and have affixed thereto their seals.

“Done in duplicate at London, the 30th January, 1902.

“LANSDOWNE,

His Britannic Majesty’s Principal Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs.

“HAYASHI,

Envoy Extraordinary and Minister Plenipotentiary of His Majesty the Emperor of Japan at the Court of St. James.”[^[403]]

“Foreign Office, January 30, 1902.

“Sir Claude MacDonald [the British Minister at Tokio]:

“I have signed to-day, with the Japanese Minister, an Agreement between Great Britain and Japan, of which a copy is inclosed in this dispatch.

“This Agreement may be regarded as the outcome of the events which have taken place during the past two years in the Far East, and of the part taken by Great Britain and Japan in dealing with them.

“Throughout the troubles and complications which arose in China consequent upon the Boxer outbreak and the attack upon the Peking Legations, the two Powers have been in close and uninterrupted communication, and have been actuated by similar views.

“We have each of us desired that the integrity and independence of the Chinese Empire should be preserved, that there should be no disturbance of the territorial status quo either in China or in the adjoining regions, that all nations should, within those regions, as well as within the limits of the Chinese Empire, be afforded equal opportunities for the development of their commerce and industry, and that peace should not only be restored, but should, for the future, be maintained.

“From the frequent exchanges of view which have taken place between the two Governments, and from the discovery that their Far Eastern policy was identical, it has resulted that each side has expressed the desire that their common policy should find expression in an international contract of binding validity.

“We have thought it desirable to record in the Preamble of that instrument the main objects of our common policy in the Far East to which I have already referred, and in the first Article we join in entirely disclaiming any aggressive tendencies either in China or Korea. We have, however, thought it necessary also to place on record the view entertained by both the High Contracting Parties, that should their interests as above described be endangered, it will be admissible for either of them to take such measures as may be indispensable in order to safeguard their interests, and words have been added which will render it clear that such precautionary measures might become necessary and might be legitimately taken, not only in the case of aggressive action or of an actual attack of some other Power, but in the event of disturbances arising of a character to necessitate the intervention of either of the High Contracting Parties for the protection of the lives and property of its subjects.

“The principal obligations undertaken mutually by the High Contracting Parties are those of maintaining a strict neutrality in the event of either of them becoming involved in war, and of coming to one another’s assistance in the event of either of them being confronted by the opposition of more than one hostile Power. Under the remaining provisions of the Agreement, the High Contracting Parties undertake that neither of them will, without consultation with the other, enter into separate arrangements with another Power to the prejudice of the interests described in the Agreement, and that whenever those interests are in jeopardy, they will communicate with one another fully and frankly.

“The concluding Article has reference to the duration of the Agreement which, after five years, is terminable by either of the High Contracting Parties at one year’s notice.

“His Majesty’s Government had been largely influenced in their decision to enter into this important contract by the conviction that it contains no provisions which can be regarded as an indication of aggressive or self-seeking tendencies in the regions to which it applies. It has been concluded purely as a measure of precaution, to be invoked, should occasion arise, in the defence of important British interests. It in no way threatens the present position or the legitimate interests of other Powers. On the contrary, that part of it which renders either of the High Contracting Parties liable to be called upon by the other for assistance can operate only when one of the allies has found himself obliged to go to war in defence of interests which are common to both, when the circumstances in which he has taken this step are such as to establish that the quarrel has not been of his own seeking, and when, being engaged in his own defence, he finds himself threatened, not only by a single Power, but by a hostile coalition.

“His Majesty’s Government trust that the Agreement may be found of mutual advantage to the two countries, that it will make for the preservation of peace, and that, should peace be unfortunately broken, it will have the effect of restricting the area of hostilities.

“I am, etc.,

“LANSDOWNE.”[^[404]]

The singular nature of these documents stands out so clearly on their face that it hardly needs a special reference. Not only has Manchuria at last been clearly interpreted by both Powers as lying within the scope of the Agreement, but it is explicitly admitted therein that Japan possesses extensive interests in the Korean peninsula, which is for that reason included in the sphere within which the contracting parties unequivocally disavow aggressive tendencies. Nor does this sum up all the difference between this and the Anglo-German Agreement, for, while in the latter the denial of the parties’ aggressive designs was limited to the period of the Boxer complication, and, moreover, coupled with a reservation amounting to the recognition of the theory of readjusting the balance between the Powers at the expense of China, the new alliance unconditionally upholds the independence of China and Korea, and any measure, either peaceful or warlike, taken by either party to safeguard its interests, if they are in any way threatened, would by no means alter its devotion to the principles of the territorial integrity of the Chinese and Korean Empires and of the open door in those countries. The alliance exists solely for the purpose of effectively safe-guarding the interests already acquired by the two Powers on the common ground, and it is implied in an unmistakable manner that those interests may best be maintained by the total abstention, in any event, from all aggressive or exclusive tendencies in China and Korea, and, what is equally important, that the observation of these principles would forcibly tend to preserve the general peace in the Far East. Owing to the covert violation of these principles by another Power, however, peace has been broken, but the Anglo-Japanese Agreement has not expired. The latter would, however, fall to the ground the moment one of the parties, either as a result of a war or otherwise, should attempt to depart from the principles of the open door and the territorial integrity of the neighboring Empires.

Lord Lansdowne considered the Agreement “a measure of precaution,” and hoped that it would “make for the preservation of peace, and that, should peace be unfortunately broken, it would have the effect of restricting the area of hostilities.” Presently these hopes were openly seconded, but in reality neutralized, by the Russo-French Declaration of March 17, which stated:—

“The allied Governments of Russia and France have received a copy of the Anglo-Japanese Agreement of the 30th January, 1902, concluded with the object of maintaining the status quo and the general peace in the Far East, and preserving the independence of China and Korea, which are to remain open to the commerce and industry of all nations, and have been fully satisfied to find therein affirmed the fundamental principles which they have themselves, on several occasions, declared to form the basis of their policy, and still remain so.

“The two Governments consider that the observance of these principles is at the same time a guarantee of their special interests in the Far East.[^[405]] Nevertheless, being obliged themselves also to take into consideration the case in which either the aggressive action of third Powers, or the recurrence of disturbances in China, jeopardizing the integrity and free development of that Power, might become a menace to their own interests, the two allied Governments reserve to themselves the right to consult in that contingency as to the means to be adopted for securing those interests.”[^[406]]

The St. Petersburg Messager Officiel of March 20, published, with the Declaration, the statement that the Russian Government had received the announcement of the Anglo-Japanese Agreement “with the most perfect calm,” for Russia likewise insisted on the maintenance and integrity of China and Korea. “Russia,” it continued to say, “desires the preservation of the status quo and general peace in the Far East, by the construction of the great Siberian Railroad, together with its branch line through Manchuria, toward a port always ice-free. Russia aids in the extension in these regions of the commerce and industry of the whole world. Would it be to her interest to put forward obstacles at the present time? The intention expressed by Great Britain and Japan to attain those same objects, which have invariably been pursued by the Russian Government, can meet with nothing but sympathy in Russia, in spite of the comments in certain political spheres and in some of the foreign newspapers, which endeavored to present in quite a different light the impassive attitude of the Imperial Government toward a diplomatic act which, in its eye, does not change in any way the general situation of the political horizon.”[^[407]]

It seems to be generally overlooked that, so far as the published documents are concerned, there occurs no statement that the Russo-French alliance extended from Europe to the Far East under precisely the same conditions as those of the Anglo-Japanese Agreement. In other words, although the general principles of the latter are indorsed, one finds nowhere that its terms of war and neutrality and its provisions regarding the duration of the validity of the instrument have also been reproduced by Russia and France in their mutual convention. Regarding the precise conditions of their alliance, therefore, the world is left much in the dark, save what it takes for granted. Nor are the principles of the integrity and the open door of China and Korea so fully and explicitly stated here as in the Agreement of the rival allies, while the reservation at the end of the Declaration does not make it clear that these principles may not be discarded, under certain circumstances, according to the interpretations of the parties themselves of the means to be taken to safeguard their interests.

Turning to the general tenor of the documents, the student will at once observe their marked characteristics. It is at least singular, one would think, that the “most perfect calm” and the “impassive attitude” of the Russian Government should be expressed in so many words. If, again, the allied Powers were, as they declare, in perfect accord with the principles of Great Britain and Japan, it is not intelligible why they should entertain, as it appears, so deep a suspicion toward the “political spheres” in which the Russian calmness was said to have been deliberately misinterpreted, and also toward the “third Powers” “whose aggressive action” might “jeopardize the integrity and free development” of China. This sense of distrust becomes all the more pronounced when it is contrasted with the assertion that the agreement between Great Britain and Japan brought no change on the political horizon of the East. It was reported about the time when the Russian Minister and the French Chargé d’Affaires at Tokio handed the Declaration to Baron Komura, that the allied Powers had made their Declaration because they feared that Great Britain and Japan might, in virtue of the first Article of their Agreement, object even to legitimate means of protecting the French and Russian interests in the Far East.[^[408]] If the four Powers upheld the same principles, no such apprehension of two of them against the other two could be either cordial or even justifiable. Under these considerations, one can hardly avoid the conclusion that the allied Governments of Russia and France must have been animated less by the principles they professed than by the deep rivalry of their interests with those of the other allies. For it is at least certain that, ever since their memorable coalition with Germany in 1895, in the coercion of Japan, Russia and France had acted in mutual good-will, the former being mainly aided by the latter in Manchuria and Korea, and the latter by the former in the southern Chinese provinces,[^[409]] in their diplomatic manœuvres in those countries and in their struggles with Japan and Great Britain.[^[410]] If the Agreement and the Declaration are considered the formal expression of the cordial sentiment which had long existed and been growing between the two sets of the Powers, they may be said to have brought no change upon the political horizon; but it seems impossible to deny that their publication greatly clarified the political atmosphere in the East, and, in spite of the verbal meaning of the declaration, not a little accentuated the widening contrast between the two different policies upheld by the two powerful coalitions. In this sense, the political evolution of the Far East may be said to have now reached an important stage after the European intervention in Japan in 1895.[^[411]]

CHAPTER XIII
THE CONVENTION OF EVACUATION

It will be remembered that we left the Russo-Chinese negotiation regarding Manchuria at the point where Prince Ching, either late in February or early in March, presented a counter-proposal to the Russian demands.[^[412]] It has also been shown that the Anglo-Japanese Agreement closely preceded, and the Franco-Russian Declaration followed, this event. By that time the allied forces had gradually retired from North China, and the Chinese Court, which had fled to Si-ngan, had retraced its steps to Peking, arriving at the palace on January 7, 1902. The political surroundings of the East seemed to have assumed a somewhat more reassuring outlook, except in Manchuria, than they had worn at any time since the siege of the Legations in 1900. The Russian Government seized this opportunity to conclude with China, on April 8, 1902, along the line suggested by the counter-draft of Prince Ching, the now celebrated Convention providing for the evacuation of Manchuria, which went into effect simultaneously with its signature. We subjoin this important document,[^[413]] together with the official statement with which the former was published in the St. Petersburg Messager Officiel of April 12:—

“The grave internal disorders which suddenly broke out over the whole of China in the year 1900, exposing the Imperial Mission and Russian subjects to danger, obliged Russia to take decided measures to protect her Imperial interests. With this object in view, the Imperial Government, as is already known, dispatched a considerable military force to Peking, which had been abandoned by the Emperor and the Government authorities, and introduced a Russian army into the frontier State of Manchuria, to which the disorders in the Province of Pechili had quickly spread, and were manifested by an attack upon the Russian frontier by the native chiefs and army, accompanied by a formal declaration of war on Russia by the local Chinese authorities.

“Nevertheless, the Imperial Government informed the Government of the Emperor that Russia, in undertaking these measures, had no hostile intentions toward China, whose independence and integrity were the foundation of Russian policy in the Far East.

“True to these principles, Russia, as soon as the danger threatening the Imperial Mission and Russian subjects was over, withdrew her forces from Pechili before any of the other Powers, and, at the first indication of peace in Manchuria being restored, declared her readiness to determine, in a private Agreement with China, the manner and earliest date of her evacuation of that province, with, however, certain guarantees of a temporary nature, which were rendered necessary by the disorderly condition of affairs in the above-mentioned province.

“The conclusion of this Agreement dragged over many months, owing to the difficult position in which the high Chinese dignitaries were placed, being unable, in the absence of the Court, to decide upon action, as becomes the Representatives of a perfectly independent Empire.

“Latterly, however, the pacification of China has progressed with notable success. After the signature of the Protocol of the 25th of August (7th September), 1901, the Imperial Court returned to Peking; the central lawful authority resumed its rights, and in many parts of the Empire the local administrations were reëstablished. At the first reception of the Corps Diplomatique in Peking, the Chinese Empress expressed to the foreign Representatives her gratitude for their coöperation in suppressing the disturbances, and assured them of her unshakable determination to take every measure for the reëstablishment in the country of the normal state of affairs existing before the disturbances arose.

“This, indeed, solved the problem in which Russia was principally interested when the disorders broke out in the neighboring Empire. The Imperial Government, pursuing no selfish aims, insisted that other Powers also should not violate the independence and integrity of China; and that the lawful Government, with which Russia had concluded various agreements, should be reinstated, and thus, when the disorders were over, the friendly relations with China, which had existed from time immemorial, should be continued.

“Taking into consideration that this was the only object with which Russian troops were sent into the Celestial Empire, and that China has given written guarantee for the maintenance of order in the country, and repaid Russia with material expenses to which she was put by her military operations in China, the Imperial Government henceforth sees no necessity for leaving armed forces within the confines of the neighboring territory. Therefore, by Imperial will, on the 26th March (April 8) was signed by the Russian Minister at Peking, M. Lessar, and by the Chinese Plenipotentiaries, the following Agreement as to the conditions of the recall of the Russian forces from Manchuria.

“AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA RESPECTING MANCHURIA

“His Majesty the Emperor and Autocrat of All the Russias, and His Majesty the Emperor of China, with the object of reëstablishing and confirming the relations of good neighborhood, which were disturbed by the rising in the Celestial Empire of the year 1900, have appointed their Plenipotentiaries to come to an agreement on certain questions relating to Manchuria. These Plenipotentiaries, furnished with full powers, which were found to be in order, agreed as follows:—

“Article 1. His Imperial Majesty the Emperor of Russia, desirous of giving fresh proof of his peaceable and friendly disposition toward His Majesty the Emperor of China, and overlooking the fact that attacks were first made from frontier posts in Manchuria on peaceable Russian settlements, agrees to the reëstablishment of the authority of the Chinese Government in that region, which remains an integral part of the Chinese Empire, and restores to the Chinese Government the right to exercise therein governmental and administrative authority, as it existed previous to the occupation by Russian troops of that region.

“Article 2. In taking possession of the governmental and administrative authority in Manchuria, the Chinese Government confirms, both with regard to the period and with regard to all other Articles, the obligation to observe strictly the stipulations of the contract concluded with the Russo-Chinese Bank on the 27th August, 1896, and in virtue of paragraph 5 of the above-mentioned contract, takes upon itself the obligation to use all means to protect the railway and the persons in its employ, and binds itself also to secure within the boundaries of Manchuria the safety of all Russian subjects in general and the undertakings established by them.

“The Russian Government, in view of these obligations accepted by the Government of His Majesty the Emperor of China, agrees on its side, provided that no disturbances arise and that the action of other Powers should not prevent it, to withdraw gradually all its forces from within the limits of Manchuria in the following manner:—

“(a.) Within six months from the signature of the Agreement to clear the southwestern portion of the Province of Mukden up to the river Liao-ho of Russian troops, and to hand the railways over to China.

“(b.) Within further six months to clear the remainder of the Province of Mukden and the Province of Kirin of Imperial troops.

“(c.) Within the six months following to remove the remaining Imperial Russian troops from the Province of Hei-lung-chang.

“Article 3. In view of the necessity of preventing in the future any recurrence of the disorders of last year, in which Chinese troops stationed on the Manchurian frontier also took part, the Imperial Russian and Chinese Governments shall undertake to instruct the Russian military authorities and the Tsiang-Tsungs, mutually to come to an agreement respecting the numbers and the disposition of the Chinese forces until the Russian forces shall have been withdrawn. At the same time the Chinese Government binds itself to organize no other forces over and above those decided upon by the Russian military authorities and the Tsiang-Tsungs as sufficient to suppress brigandage and pacify the country.

“After the complete evacuation of Manchuria by Russian troops, the Chinese Government shall have the right to increase or diminish the number of its troops in Manchuria, but of this must duly notify the Russian Government, as it is natural that the maintenance in the above-mentioned district of an over large number of troops must necessarily lead to a reinforcement of the Russian military force in the neighboring districts, and thus would bring about an increase of expenditure on military requirements undesirable for both States.

“For police service and maintenance of internal order in the districts outside those parts allotted to the Eastern Chinese Railway Company, a police guard, under the local Governors (‘Tsiang-Tsungs’), consisting of cavalry and infantry, shall be organized exclusively of subjects of His Majesty the Emperor of China.

“Article 4. The Russian Government agrees to restore to the owners the Railway Shan-hai-kwan-Niu-chwang-Sinminting, which, since the end of September, 1900, has been occupied and guarded by Russian troops. In view of this, the Government of His Majesty the Emperor of China binds itself:—

“1. In case protection of the above-mentioned line should be necessary, that obligation shall fall exclusively on the Chinese Government, which shall not invite other Powers to participate in its protection, construction, or working, nor allow other Powers to occupy the territory evacuated by the Russians.

“2. The completion and working of the above-mentioned line shall be conducted in strict accordance with the Agreement between Russia and England of the 16th April, 1899, and the Agreement with the private Corporation respecting the loan for the construction of the line. And furthermore, the corporation shall observe its obligations not to enter into possession of, or in any way to administer, the Shan-hai-kwan-Niu-chwang-Sinminting line.

“3. Should, in the course of time, extensions of the line in Southern Manchuria, or construction of branch lines in connection with it, or the erection of a bridge in Niu-chwang, or the moving of the terminus there, be undertaken, these questions shall first form the subject of mutual discussion between the Russian and Chinese Governments.

“4. In view of the fact that the expenses incurred by the Russian Government for the repair and working of the Shan-hai-kwan-Niu-chwang-Sinminting line were not included in the sum total of damages, the Chinese Government shall be bound to pay back the sum which, after examination with the Russian Government, shall be found to be due.

“The stipulations of all former Treaties between Russia and China which are not affected by the present Agreement shall remain in force.

“The Agreement shall have legal force from the day of its signature by the Plenipotentiaries of both States.

“The exchange of ratifications shall take place in St. Petersburg within three months from the date of the signature of the Agreement.

“For the confirmation of the above, the Plenipotentiaries of the two Contracting Powers have signed and sealed two copies of the Agreement in the Russian, French, and Chinese languages. Of the three texts which, after comparison, have been found to correspond with each other, that in the French language shall be considered as authoritative for the interpretation of the Agreement.

“Done in Peking in duplicate, the 26th March, 1902.”

“At the same time, M. Lessar handed a note to the Chinese Plenipotentiaries, which declares, in the name of the Imperial Government, that the surrender of the civil government of Niu-chwang into the hands of the Chinese administration will take place only upon the withdrawal from that part of foreign forces and landing parties, and the restoration to the Chinese of the town of Tien-tsin, at present under international administration.

“From the above, it is shown that the Imperial Government, in complete adherence to its repeated declarations, commences the gradual evacuation of Manchuria in order to carry it out upon the conditions above enumerated, if no obstacles are placed in the way by the unexpected action of other Powers or of China herself; that the surrender of the civil government of Niu-chwang into the hands of the Chinese administration is to take place according to a written declaration given to the Celestial Government, only when foreign forces and landing parties are withdrawn from the port, and if, at the same time, the question of the restoration of Tien-tsin to the Chinese has been conclusively settled.

“The Chinese Government, on its side, confirms all the obligations it has previously undertaken toward Russia, and particularly the provisions of the 1896 Agreement, which must serve as a basis for the friendly relations of the neighboring Empires. By this defensive Agreement, Russia undertook in 1896 to maintain the principle of the independence and integrity of China, who, on her side, gave Russia the right to construct a line through Manchuria and to enjoy the material privileges which are directly connected with the above undertaking.

“After the instructive events of the last two years, it is possible to hope for the complete pacification of the Far East, and the development of friendly relations with China in the interests of the two Empires. But, undoubtedly, if the Chinese Government, in spite of their positive assurances, should, on any pretext, violate the above conditions, the Imperial Government would no longer consider itself bound by the provisions of the Manchurian Agreement, nor by its declarations on this subject, and would have to decline to take the responsibility for all the consequences which might ensue.”[^[414]]

The comparatively mild terms of this Convention may well be pointed out.[^[415]] Except in the negative reservations of Article 4, there is found here no provision for the exclusive control by the Russians of the mining and railway enterprises either in or out of Manchuria. On the contrary, the sovereign rights in Manchuria, including those respecting the disposition of military forces, will in eighteen months be almost completely restored to the Chinese Government, and the entire agreement will become operative from the very day of its signature. The Convention seemed to confirm the avowed intention of Russia to love peace and respect the integrity of China. It is not strange that Prince Ching personally thanked Great Britain, Japan, and the United States for the valuable support they had rendered China in the negotiations which had terminated in the conclusion of this instrument.[^[416]]

If, however, the subsequent conduct of Russia in Manchuria has appeared to contradict the tenor of the Agreement, it is only necessary to point out how elastic and expansive its terms are. Paragraph 5, Article 2, of the Bank Agreement of September 8, 1896, imposing upon the Chinese Government the duty to protect the Manchurian Railway and the persons employed in it, is not only reinforced but also expanded so as to make it incumbent upon China “to secure within the boundaries of Manchuria the safety of all Russian subjects in general and the undertakings established by them.” Unless Manchuria is considered a territory distinct from the rest of the Chinese Empire, no Russians or other foreigners have the right to reside in the interior save in the treaty posts. Yet the Chinese Government is held responsible for the security of the Russians and their enterprises in Manchuria, which is regarded virtually as a Russian colony, into which immigrants from Siberia and European Russia have been sent with wonderful rapidity. Nor does this additional obligation on the part of China any longer bind her to a private company called the Russo-Chinese Bank, but henceforth to the Government of the Czar. The discharge of so onerous a duty is made a condition for the Russian evacuation of Manchuria.

It is not generally known that this condition, otherwise so difficult, was practically impossible so long as the presence of the Russian forces kept the Chinese troops greatly reduced in number. The apprehended disorder must come, as it always has done, and as none knew better than the Russians, from the groups of unoccupied men, the so-called mounted bandits (ma tseh), who infested the Provinces of Sheng-king and Kirin, where they sided with whatever power suited their fancy and interest, exercised their own law, and in one way or another kept the country in a state of great instability. It should be noted that they were either disbanded soldiers or the possible candidates for the Chinese troops to be levied to safeguard Manchuria—for military life in China seldom attracts peaceful citizens. So long as the presence of the Russian forces rendered the regular service of the outlaws in the Chinese army unnecessary, their means of subsistence would be derived less often from a settled agricultural life than from plundering. Between March, 1902, and August, 1903, a Russian officer successfully enlisted the service of some 450 of these marauders, and employed them in the timber work which the Russians secured in Eastern Manchuria in the name of one of the chiefs of the bandits.[^[417]] Before and after this period, however, the Russian officers continually reported sanguinary conflicts with the robbers, the fear of whom has seemed to constitute the main justification for the steady progress of the Russian measures of tightening a hold upon Manchuria.[^[418]] Side by side with this grave situation, we should also observe that the Convention provided that, even after the evacuation, if an evacuation were possible, the numbers and the stations of the Chinese troops, upon whom the duty of protecting the rapidly increasing Russian subjects and properties in Manchuria would devolve, should always be made known to Russia, so that unnecessarily large forces should not be stationed. Russia would judge whether the Chinese forces were excessive, and exert her influence to keep them in reduced numbers,[^[419]] while, at the same time, their capacity as well for receiving the banditti into their ranks as for affording protection to the Russian life and property would, to say the least, soon reach its limits. Thus the explicit terms of the Convention were constructed so as to be greatly neutralized, as it would seem, by what was implied and could only be inferred by analysis. In the light of these considerations may be seen the statement that, “undoubtedly, if the Chinese Government, in spite of their positive assurances, should, on any pretext, violate the above conditions [i. e., of the Convention], the Imperial Government would no longer consider itself bound by the provisions of the Manchurian Agreement, nor by its declarations on this subject, and would have to decline to take the responsibility for all the consequences which might ensue,”[^[420]]—a reservation which Count Lamsdorff considered “a very necessary one.”[^[421]] In the same light, also, one may read the statement made by Sir Ernest Satow to Prince Ching, that “the Convention did not appear to His Majesty’s Government to be entirely satisfactory,”[^[422]] and also the pungent remark of Lord Lansdowne to M. de Staal, that there were several points in the Agreement which had caused much criticism in England, particularly those provisions which limited China’s right to dispose of her own military forces and to construct railway extensions within her own territory. “I did not, however,” adds the Marquess, “desire to examine these provisions too microscopically, and I shared his [M. de Staal’s] hope that the Agreement would be loyally and considerately interpreted on both sides, and that the evacuation of the province would be completed within the appointed time.”[^[423]]

The last but not the least difficulty about the Agreement was its absolute silence regarding the so-called “railway guards,” organized ostensibly by the Eastern Chinese Railway Company, whose existence would make the promised evacuation almost entirely nominal. It will be remembered that, so far as the published agreements between China and Russia are concerned, one fails to find any conventional ground for the organization of the railway guards, save in Article 8 of the Statutes—not a Russo-Chinese agreement, but purely Russian statutes—published on December 11/13, 1896, which provided: “The preservation of order and decorum on the lands assigned to the railway and its appurtenances should be confined to the police agents appointed by the Company. The Company should draw up and establish police regulations.”[^[424]] This right of Russia to police the railway lands seems to have been tacitly perpetuated by the present Convention of 1902,[^[425]] and, from this, it may perhaps be assumed that the Chinese Government had some time before April 8, 1902, agreed to the statutory rule of Russia which has just been quoted. However that may be, a permission to establish a police force could scarcely justify the organization of railway guards selected from the regular troops and receiving a higher pay than the latter. Moreover, it still remains to be officially declared that the numbers of the guards would not be determined by Russia at will and without consulting China. These guards seem to have numbered only 2000 or 3000 before the Manchurian campaign of 1900, but in October of that year Mr. Charles Hardinge, the British Chargé d’Affaires at St. Petersburg, wrote to Lord Salisbury: “I learn that active recruiting for this force is now in progress, and its numbers are to be raised to 12,000 men under command of officers in the regular army. Intrenched camps are also being constructed at all the strategic positions along the line.”[^[426]] Then, on the eve of the termination of the first period of evacuation in 1902, it was reported by Consul Hosie: “I am credibly informed that the number of the military guard of the Russian railways in Manchuria has been fixed at 30,000 men.”[^[427]] Latterly, the name has been changed to the “frontier guards,” which, after the beginning of the present war, were said to have been made up of fifty-five mounted squadrons, fifty-five foot companies, and six batteries of artillery, aggregating 25,000 men, instead of 30,000, and guarding the railways in sections of thirty-three miles.[^[428]] There is no intention here to maintain the accuracy of these reports, or to decide whether the numbers are adequate for the purpose in view, but one would be tempted to think that the Russian Government made a regrettable omission in the new Manchurian Agreement, when it made no reference to the forces which were justified by no open contract with China, and, theoretically speaking, were not incapable of an indefinite expansion.

CHAPTER XIV
THE EVACUATION

Unsatisfactory as the Manchurian Agreement of April 8, 1902, appeared to Great Britain and Japan, they refrained from entering any protest against its conclusion. They probably preferred the imperfect obligation the Convention imposed upon the contracting parties to an indefinite prolongation of the dangerous conditions which had prevailed. What remained for them and for China was to watch the conduct of Russia in Manchuria and test her veracity according to their own interpretations of the Agreement. In the mean time, the questions which had existed between China and the Powers were being one after another disposed of; the distribution of the indemnities was finally agreed upon on June 14, the Provisional Government of Tien-tsin by the Powers came to an end on August 15, and the rendition of the city to the Chinese authorities was accomplished. The date set for the evacuation of the southwest of the Sheng-king Province up to the Liao River, October 8, drew on, and the evacuation took place. The Tartar General Tsêng-chi had received an Imperial mandate to take over from the hands of the Russians the specified territory and its railways, even before the middle of September,[^[429]] and, on October 28, Prince Ching was able to state to Sir Ernest Satow: “Their Excellencies the Minister Superintendent of Northern Ports and the Military Governor of Mukden have now severally reported by telegram that all the railways outside the Great Wall have been handed back, and that the southwest portion of the Mukden (Sheng-king) Province as far as the Liao River has been completely evacuated by Russian troops.”[^[430]] But what was evacuation? Some troops may have been sent to European Russia, others to different stations in Siberia, including the strategically important Nikolsk, near the eastern border of Manchuria, and still others to Mongolia, where Russian forces were reported to have suddenly increased, until in December they were said to have numbered about 27,000.[^[431]] No small number were also transferred to Port Arthur[^[432]] and Vladivostok.[^[433]] It was, however, alleged by several observers that the main part of the so-called evacuation meant nothing more than the transferring of Russian troops from Chinese towns and settlements to the rapidly developing Russian settlements and quarters within Manchuria. It was reported from various sources[^[434]] that along the 2326 versts of the railroads there were about eighty so-called depots, each two to five square miles in extent, which had been marked out as the sites of new Russian settlements, and in many cases as stations of the railway guards. The most important line, connecting Port Arthur with Harbin, was studded with such depots at every fifteen or twenty miles. In many of these depots were to be seen extensive barracks built of brick, one at Liao-yang, for example, being capable of holding 3000 men, and another at Mukden, in the building of which bricks of the wall of the Chinese Temple of Earth were surreptitiously utilized,[^[435]] accommodating 6000. Besides the barracks, permanent blockhouses were met with every three or four miles. The guards of the railways, whose numbers were just at this time fixed at 30,000,[^[436]] were recruited from the regular troops, from whom they were distinguished by green shoulder-straps and collar-patches, and also by higher pay, and the regular troops themselves could be contained in large numbers in the depots and barracks and blockhouses when the evacuation was completed.[^[437]] At the same time, the Russians seemed to have destroyed nearly all the forts and confiscated the guns of the Chinese, whose defense had thus been reduced almost to nil. The military power of the Tartar Generals at the capitals of the three Manchurian Provinces was held under a strict surveillance of the Russian officers, who also readily controlled highroads and rivers. It was, moreover, uncertain how much of this control and supervision by the Russians would be relaxed after the promised evacuation, or how much it would then be replaced by the powerful position the Russians would hold in their own quarters in Manchuria. The conclusion seemed inevitable to some people that by the so-called evacuation, if it should ever take place in the face of the enormous obstacles which the Agreement did not seek to remove, Russia would gain a much stronger hold upon the Manchurian territory than during the preceding period of open military occupation.[^[438]] It was also pointed out that the forts, docks, and other military and naval establishments at Port Arthur, costing millions of rubles, were not compatible with the short term of the lease of the port, and their practical value would be seriously impaired by a true evacuation of the rest of Manchuria.

So far as the immediate interests of foreign nations, aside from the general principle of the integrity of the Chinese Empire, were concerned, nothing was more to be desired than a speedy evacuation of the treaty port of Niu-chwang, where the Russians had maintained a provisional government since August 5, 1900.[^[439]] At the conclusion of the Agreement of April, 1901, M. Lessar delivered a note verbale to the Chinese Government, stating that Niu-chwang would be restored as soon as the Powers terminated their administration of Tien-tsin, and that, if the latter event did not take place before October 8, then Niu-chwang would be surrendered to China in the first or second month after that date.[^[440]] The rendition of Tien-tsin was accomplished by the Powers on August 15, but the restoration of Niu-chwang not only did not follow it, but seemed to be indefinitely delayed for the trivial reasons presented one after another by the Russian authorities: that, for instance, one or two foreign gunboats were present in the harbor;[^[441]] that the Chinese had refused to agree to the constitution of a sanitary board;[^[442]] and that the Chinese Tao-tai detailed to receive back the civil government of the port had not arrived from Mukden, where, it has been discovered, he had been detained by the Russians much against his will.[^[443]] Up to the present time, the maritime customs dues at this important trade port have been paid to the Russo-Chinese Bank, and, for a large sum thus received, the Bank is said to have paid to the Chinese authorities neither the amount nor the interest.[^[444]]

CHAPTER XV
DEMANDS IN SEVEN ARTICLES

The most important section of Manchuria, strategically, namely, that part of the Province of Sheng-king which lies east of the Liao River and the entire Province of Kirin, was to be evacuated, according to the Agreement, before April 8, 1903. As that date drew near, and long afterward, the disposition of the Russian forces appeared incompatible with even the nominal withdrawal which characterized the first period of evacuation. It is true that in the Sheng-king Province, except the regions bordering on the Yalu River on the Korean frontier, the Russian troops began to withdraw soon after the end of the first period, but only “to the railway line.”[^[445]] The important border regions, especially Fêng-hwang-Chêng and An-tung, however, remained in Russian occupation, the former still holding 700 cavalry in June.[^[446]] From March, there had been mysterious movements of small detachments of troops toward this frontier,[^[447]] of which Count Lamsdorff and M. Witte alike professed a complete ignorance,[^[448]] but concerning which M. Plançon, the Russian Chargé d’Affaires at Peking, had made an explanation which seemed utterly unintelligible, that the Russian troops had been moved in order to counteract a threatened Japanese movement. It soon appeared, however, that the Russians had begun to cut timber on both sides of the Yalu River,[^[449]] and, with the consent of Admiral Alexieff, had hired the services of some Russian soldiers,[^[450]] some of whom had gone to Yong-am-po on the Korean side of the Yalu.[^[451]] The detachments outside of Fêng-hwang-Chêng, amounting at first to only five men at Tatung-kao and twenty at Yong-am-po, would have been small enough to be ignored, had it not been for the significant fact that the occupation of Yong-am-po, which will be discussed later on,[^[452]] constituted a menace to the integrity of the Korean Empire similar to one which threatened China when Russia leased Port Arthur; for a railway concession granted in the Russo-Chinese Agreement of March 27, 1898,[^[453]] would bring this port into connection with the entire railroad and military system of Manchuria and the great Russian Empire. Further west, at Liao-yang, except the nominal withdrawal reported in the previous August,[^[454]] there was no indication of its evacuation,[^[455]] and at Mukden, the capital of Sheng-king, 3200 soldiers, who constituted the major part of the forces, were reported to have evacuated,[^[456]] but the remainder, after proceeding to the train, suddenly returned and took up their old quarters,[^[457]] some or all of them wearing civilian dress.[^[458]] It is unknown whither the 3200 men had gone, but the Russian Consul merely moved to the railway outside the town.[^[459]] To the north, it was evident in May that the Province of Kirin had hardly begun to be evacuated even in the nominal sense, as in parts of the Sheng-king Province.[^[460]] So late as in September, the Russian authorities at Peking talked to Prince Ching of leaving 6000 or 7000 troops in the Kirin and Hei-lung Provinces for another year.[^[461]]

Long before September, however, it had become apparent that the delay in the second part of the Manchurian evacuation was due to no casual event. The appointed time-limit, the 8th of April, had hardly been twenty days past, with no signs indicative of a possible speedy withdrawal, when new demands in seven articles of an highly exclusive nature, which the Russian Chargé d’Affaires had lodged at the Foreign Office of Peking,[^[462]] leaked out,[^[463]] were confirmed by Prince Ching,[^[464]] and spread broadcast over the astonished world. Further evacuation was probably implied, if not declared, to be dependent upon the acceptance of these demands,[^[465]] the most authentic version[^[466]] of which is here subjoined:—

“1. No portion of territory restored to China by Russia, especially at Niu-chwang and in the valley of Liao-ho, shall be leased or sold to any other Power under any circumstances; if such sale or lease to another Power be concluded, Russia will take decisive steps in order to safeguard her own interests, as she considers such sale or lease to be a menace to her.

“2. The system of government actually existing throughout Mongolia shall not be altered, as such alteration will tend to produce a regrettable state of affairs, such as the uprising of the people and the disturbances along the Russian frontier; the utmost precaution shall be taken in that direction.

“3. China shall engage herself not to open, of her own accord, new ports or towns in Manchuria, without giving previous notice to the Russian Government, nor shall she permit foreign consuls to reside in those towns or ports.

“4. The authority of foreigners who may be engaged by China for the administration of any affairs whatever, shall not be permitted to extend over any affairs in Northern Provinces (including Chili), where Russia has the predominant interests.

“In case China desires to engage foreigners for the administration of affairs in Northern Provinces, special offices shall be established for the control of Russians: for instance, no authority over the mining affairs of Mongolia and Manchuria shall be given to foreigners who may be engaged by China for the administration of mining affairs; such authority shall be left entirely in the hands of Russian experts.

“5. As long as there exists a telegraph line at Niu-chwang and Port Arthur, the Niu-chwang-Peking line shall be maintained, as the telegraph line at Niu-chwang and Port Arthur and throughout Sheng-king Province is under Russian control, and its connection with her line on the Chinese telegraph poles at Niu-chwang, Port Arthur, and Peking is of the utmost importance.

“6. After restoring Niu-chwang to the Chinese local authorities, the customs receipts there shall, as at present, be deposited with the Russo-Chinese Bank.

“7. After the evacuation of Manchuria, the rights which have been acquired in Manchuria by Russian subjects and foreign companies during Russian occupation shall remain unaffected; moreover, as Russia is duty-bound to insure the life of the people residing in all the regions traversed by the railway, it is necessary, in order to provide against the spread of epidemic diseases in the Northern Provinces by the transportation of passengers and goods by railway train, to establish at Niu-chwang a quarantine office after the restoration of the place to China; the Russian civil administrators will consider the best means to attain that end. Russians only shall be employed at the posts of Commissioner of Customs and Customs Physician, and they shall be placed under the control of the Inspector-General of the Imperial Maritime Customs. These officials shall perform their duties conscientiously, shall protect the interests of the Imperial maritime customs, and shall exhaust their efforts in preventing the spread of those diseases into the Russian territories. A permanent Sanitary Board, presided over by the Customs Tao-tai, shall be established. The foreign Consuls, Commissioner of Customs, Customs Physician, and Agent of the Chinese Eastern Railway Company shall be Councilors of the Board. As regards the establishment of the Board and the management of its affairs, the Customs Tao-tai shall consult with the Russian Consul, and the Customs Tao-tai shall devise the best means to obtain funds necessary for the purpose.”

These demands, as will be seen, comprised, besides the non-alienation of Manchuria to any other Power, and the status quo in Mongolia, drastic measures of closing the former territory against the economic enterprise of all nations but the Russians; and, in that respect, were supplementary to the Agreement concluded a year before, which studiously omitted clauses prejudicial to the principle of the open door. From the standpoint of this last principle, therefore, no demands could be more objectionable than those now presented by M. Plançon. The Empress Dowager of China was said to have sneered at the report, and to have remarked that, if she had been disposed to grant such demands, she would never have requested the Powers to withdraw as soon as possible their forces from North China.[^[467]] Prince Ching not only considered the Russian terms quite unacceptable, but failed to see any reason or right on the part of Russia to impose fresh conditions which infringed China’s sovereign rights. He accordingly refused to entertain these conditions, perhaps on April 23.[^[468]] The Japanese Government had already entered a firm protest,[^[469]] and was followed by that of the British Government, which considered the demands as violating the most-favored-nation clause, and otherwise highly inadmissible.[^[470]] Before the British protest reached him, Mr. Townley, the British Chargé, had assured Prince Ching that the latter would receive from Great Britain similar support in resisting the Russian demands to that which was given him during the negotiation of the Manchurian Convention.[^[471]] Soon afterward, the United States Government also instructed Mr. Conger to urge on the Peking Foreign Office the advisability of refusing the first and second of the conditions laid down by Russia, and, moreover, made direct inquiries at the Russian Government in a friendly spirit, pointing out that the reported demands were not in accordance with the proposed stipulations contained in the new draft treaty between the United States and China, a copy of which was communicated to Count Lamsdorff.[^[472]] This latter act of Secretary Hay was promptly followed by Great Britain, whose Government instructed its Ambassador at St. Petersburg to address the Foreign Minister in language similar to that used by the American Representative.[^[473]] It may be safely inferred that the Japanese Government also took a similar step. There thus resulted a natural coöperation between the three Powers, whose straightforward policy was clearly expressed by Lord Lansdowne as follows: “To open China impartially to the commerce of the whole world, to maintain her independence and integrity, and to insist upon the fulfillment of treaty and other obligations by the Chinese Government which they have contracted towards us.”[^[474]]

According to the instructions he had received from his Government, Mr. MacCormick, the United States Ambassador, had an interview with Count Lamsdorff in the evening of April 28. The Count at once denied in the most positive manner that such demands as were rumored had been made by the Russian Government. He expressed surprise that they should have been credited in any quarter, and that a friendly government like that of the United States should be the only one to question him as to whether Russia could have made demands some of which were on the face of them ridiculous, as, for instance, those for the right of using China’s telegraph poles and for the restriction of foreign trade in Manchuria. It may be questioned whether Count Lamsdorff has ever made to a strong Power another denial in as positive language, which was, one will soon observe, as quickly falsified by subsequent events, as this remarkable disclaimer of April 28, 1903. He went on to say that he could give the United States Government the most positive assurances that Russia would faithfully adhere to its pledges regarding Manchuria, and to her assurances to respect the rights of other Powers. Moreover, American capital and commerce were what Russia most desired to attract in order to develop Manchuria. The Count also intimated that any delay in the evacuation was due to the natural necessity of obtaining assurances that China was fulfilling her part of the agreement. This could be better ascertained by the Russian Minister, M. Lessar, who had been absent from Peking on sick leave, but was about to return to his post, than by an acting Chargé d’Affaires.[^[475]] A careful reading of this disclaimer will show that it denied that the reported demands had been made by Russia, but it did not establish that no demands whatsoever had been made by her. This consideration would seem to make it truly remarkable that Mr. MacCormick should have been, as he was, entirely satisfied with the result of the interview, and should have had no further remark to make. He could perhaps have inquired whether M. Plançon had acted without authorization, what were the conditions he had proposed, and by what means M. Lessar was expected to obtain the assurances from China that her obligations would be fulfilled.[^[476]]

The positive statements of Count Lamsdorff were partly reinforced and partly neutralized by the clever remarks made on April 29 by Count Cassini, the Russian Ambassador at Washington, which appeared in the New York Tribune of May 1. He considered it unfortunate that Mr. Conger should have been misinformed, by unreliable parties, of Russia’s intentions in Manchuria, of which they were grossly ignorant,—a matter which was regretted, he was sure, no less by the American Government than by Russia. He, however, not only intimated that some sort of negotiation was in progress between Russia and China regarding Manchuria, but was bold enough to say that the United States would assist Russia in quieting the uneasy sentiment caused by false reports. He said:—

“Because of the singularity of the interest held by the United States in Manchuria—for all the world realizes that yours is a trade, not a territorial one—it lies within the power of your Government to exert a powerful influence in the preservation of peace there. Russia’s desire is also for peace, not disturbances, in Manchuria, and it is to this end that negotiations are now proceeding in Peking in the effort to establish a condition of evacuation, and to safeguard Manchuria against a recurrence of the troubles of 1900.

“Striking evidence of the direct effect in this country caused by unrest in China was seen in 1900, when, I am told, many cotton mills in the United States were forced to shut down until conditions in China were again normal. This fact and the evidence the United States has already given of its desire to make for peace are sufficient assurance that the Washington Government will lend its strong moral support to calm excitement wherever it has been aroused by the incorrect reports from Peking.”

According to Count Cassini, it was “because of the long standing and genuine friendliness which, without exception, had characterized the relations of these two great countries, as well as in recognition of the frankness with which the American Secretary of State had dealt with my Government in all diplomatic matters,” that the latter took pleasure in assuring the United States regarding negotiations pending with another Power, “even though in so doing all diplomatic precedent was broken.” “I am not aware,” he said, “that any other Powers have received from the Foreign Office [of St. Petersburg] such a statement as was handed your Ambassador.” In referring to Mr. MacCormick’s interview, however, it will be seen that Count Lamsdorff made no direct reference to the negotiations at Peking, still less to their contents, and the assurances he gave had before and have since been frequently and in similar terms repeated to other Powers by Russia.

By far the most illuminating part of M. Cassini’s conversation was its practical confirmation of the truth of one of the reported demands of Russia which were considered the most objectionable, and which Count Lamsdorff specifically denied, characterizing them “as on the face of them ridiculous,” namely, that no new ports should be opened in Manchuria for the world’s trade. “Of the opening of new treaty ports in Manchuria,” said M. Cassini, “it is impossible for me to speak at present, but it is the earnest conviction of those best acquainted with the state of affairs there that such a move will not be to the best interest of the territory. Were the question solely a commercial one, it would be different. But open a treaty port in Manchuria, and close upon the heels of commerce will follow political complications of all kinds, which will increase the threats to peace.” In this statement Count Cassini not only virtually contradicted Count Lamsdorff, but also, as we shall soon see, was subsequently contradicted by the latter.

A careful reader of these words uttered by one of Russia’s greatest diplomatic agents abroad will feel satisfied that, despite Count Lamsdorff’s elastic statement to the contrary, Russia was actually proposing some terms to China, and that one of those terms probably was that Manchuria should have no more treaty ports. When diplomacy relies, even to a slight extent, upon subterfuges, it risks a certain lack of consistent unity among its exponents, and the rule could hardly have for exceptions even such highly trained diplomats as Lamsdorff and Cassini.

Count Lamsdorff’s disclaimer was uttered on April 28, and Count Cassini’s statement was dated April 29 and appeared in the press on May 1. In the mean time, the Foreign Office of Peking had refused the Russian conditions in an official note. Yet, on April 29, M. Plançon suggested that each condition might be answered separately, and the suggestion was verbally refused by Prince Ching. Thereupon the Russian Chargé presented a note intimating that his Government wished to be assured on the first three of the original demands, namely, whether a territorial cession to another power in the Liao Valley was contemplated by China; whether there was an intention to assimilate the administration of Mongolia to that of China proper; and whether China would permit the appointment of foreign Consuls in Manchuria in other places than Niu-chwang. In reply, Prince Ching stated, naturally, that there had never been any question of ceding territory in the Liao Valley to a foreign Power; that the question of altering the administrative system of Mongolia had been discussed, but it had been disapproved by the Throne, and was not under consideration for the present; and that, in regard to the appointment of new Consuls in Manchuria, it depended upon the opening of new ports, which would be decided only by the extent of the commercial development of Manchuria.[^[477]] On the next day, or, as the late Sir M. Herbert rather inaccurately wrote to Lord Lansdowne, “two days after the Russian Government had categorically denied that the demands had been made,” M. Plançon reiterated to Prince Ching, not three, but all, of the seven conditions, and, consequently, the Chinese treaty commissioners at Shanghai were instructed, for the present, to refuse to their American colleagues the opening of treaty ports in Manchuria, which the latter had been demanding. The United States Government, however, taking little heed of M. Cassini’s argument, instructed its commissioners at Shanghai, on the strength of Count Lamsdorff’s denial, to insist upon the opening of new Manchurian ports.[^[478]] Against this demand, M. Plançon seems to have renewed his pressure upon the Chinese Government several times during May,[^[479]] saying that he had received no instructions from St. Petersburg to revoke his opposition.[^[480]] At last, Secretary Hay instructed Mr. Conger to suggest to M. Lessar, on the latter’s arrival at Peking, that a simultaneous communication should be made by them to the Peking Foreign Office to the effect that the Russian Government had, as Count Lamsdorff had said, no objection to the opening of the treaty ports.[^[481]] The Russian Minister returned to Peking toward the end of May, and telegraphed to his Government the suggestion made by the American Government.[^[482]] He, as well as M. Cassini, renewed the assurance that Russia was not opposed to the opening of the ports, and Mr. MacCormick, who returned on leave to Washington, confirmed the assurance.[^[483]] Secretary Hay now hoped that the only possible opposition to be met would come from none but the Chinese Government, and requested the support in the matter[^[484]] of the British and Japanese Ministers at Peking, which was willingly given. So late as on June 5, however, M. Cassini addressed a note to Mr. Hay, inquiring what was the meaning attached by the United States Government to the term “treaty port,” and what action it wished Russia to take. Mr. Hay could only refer, in answer to the first query, to the correspondence which passed between the Russian and the United States Governments in 1899,[^[485]] and request, in reply to the second, that Russia should inform China that it was untrue that the former was, as had been stated by China, preventing the opening of the treaty ports.[^[486]] Secretary Hay was so urgent about this matter that he considered it indifferent whether the opening was granted in a treaty or, as a compromise, by a special Imperial edict.[^[487]] M. Lessar had the first interview after his return with Prince Ching on June 10,[^[488]] and, according to the Japanese press, renewed the original seven conditions,[^[489]] including the refusal of ports. The Prince was believed to have refused to discuss any of the conditions except those regarding the establishment of a sanitary board and the payment of customs duties into the Russo-Chinese Bank at Niu-chwang, which might be reconsidered. The Prince was then granted another five days’ sick leave, returned to the summer palace, and declined to see any foreign Minister.[^[490]] Rumors were then afloat which would have one believe that the Prince, in spite of the earnest protests of the British and Japanese Representatives, was gradually yielding to Russian influence. It is at least significant that at this critical point he informed Mr. Townley, the British Chargé d’Affaires, on June 19, that an agreement would soon be arrived at with Russia whereby Manchuria would be preserved to China without any loss of sovereign rights. He added that China would open treaty ports in Manchuria, if she saw fit, after the Russian evacuation.[^[491]] The significance of these remarks could easily be read between the lines. Not only was the Russian evacuation uncertain, but also it was no less patent to Russia than to China that, in the marts, the opening of which was under discussion, namely, Mukden and perhaps Harbin, as well as An-tung and Tatung-kao near the Korean boundary, the immediate trade prospects were not considered so great as the political danger which their opening might to some degree avert. Had the evacuation been certain, and had the commercial consideration been the sole question involved, it would have been unnecessary either to hasten their opening or even to select those very places. Nor would MM. Cassini, Lessar, and Plançon have been so strongly opposed to the proposition. Seen in the light of these considerations, Prince Ching’s new position appeared plainly to indicate the gaining of Russian influence upon the helpless Foreign Office of Peking.

M. LESSAR
Russian Minister at Peking